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San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

sfstandard.com

421–430 of 622 posts

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#421
post #344

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

We can fix it, but only if we get organized. Sachin Agarwal (co-founder of Posterous) and I founded GrowSF to fix the city. We're less than two years in and already the #2 most influential voter guide in the city. We must elect pro-growth and pro-tech people who can bring competence to government. There's no other way out of this mess. We'd love your support! https://growsf.org/donate

Donated! Huge fan of the voter guide!

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#422
post #160
post #56

In a way I'm glad that a large chunk of San Francisco's population is getting exactly what they have wanted for years – to get rid of big tech takeover of the city. Maybe they will actually fare better with a significantly reduced number of tech workers and jobs, or maybe they won't. At least we'll know for certain now, and can stop all the whining.

I know people miss SF as it was before the boom, but can it actually readjust to substantially less tax revenue with the city government + responsibilities it has now? From what I read about Detroit, once businesses started shrinking or leaving the tax base shrank. The city was unable to cut down on services and spending, so it raised taxes on everyone remaining and the squeeze of more tax and worse QoL made people l…

The SF bureaucracy and homeless nonprofits have metastasized into a self licking ice cream cone of immense magnitude. There is no way to adjust downward without someone actually having to suffer a moment of accountability. That will be bitterly resisted indeed.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but I don't think SF is an exception here. The whole Bay Area is a NIMBY nest that looks frozen in time with infrastructure similar to what was in Europe in the 1950s. That's how my SF neighbor pays 30x less property tax than I do though, so there's that. Too much local democracy: "I don't want someone in Sacramento deciding for me" is how you end up with this expression of pure individualism, where Atherton res…

> The whole Bay Area is a NIMBY nest The whole every urban area of North America is a NIMBY nest. Pretty much every city is stuck with swathes of land zoned only for single family homes, with any density needing development agreements and land use change hearings and etc. Some cities are less geographically constrained (more sprawl is possible) or slower growing (the zoning changes can accommodate the growth) but the…

Smart, ethical people-- like the ones here-- can be YIMBYs. Suburb I live in everyone is mad about: "McMansions" (whatever that means), multi-family homes and any development particularly apartment buildings. These people need to be shamed for their selfishness. I am a homeowner and a YIMBY. Join me!

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#424
post #407

The city officials are asleep at the wheel. Blame it on remote work and pandemic as much as you want, but the reality is that the city was in decline even before that. It is too expensive to live in the city. It is too expensive to commute to the city. It is too expensive to feed yourself in the city. Crime is rampant. Drug use and filth is everywhere. Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owner…

"Most importantly city has been hostile to tech and business owners." You are laughable. The reason the City is in this state is because it pandered to tech firms that wanted the "coolness' without paying anything for it (and if anything, getting special dispensations for their own). They got tax breaks and perks, screwing every small local business and middle class residential tenant in sight, for big tech that didn…

What? The only ones who got tax breaks were those who moved to Mid Market, a depressed area. Twitter was going to move out of the city when they outgrew their Folsom St office, instead they moved to Mid-Market. It's gotten a lot better now, so the tax breaks did their job.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cities need social services to work, because of the density of people. It is a problem when my neighbour is crazy and screams for 18h a day when we live on top of each other in a city. It isn't when we live in the middle of no where and are separated by 50miles. Only America is specifically designed to prevent any sort of social services, because people have the freedom to come into town to use those services and the…

The "cities are forced to subsidize the surrounding areas" can be solved by pushing services up to the county or state level, if needed. What has happened is people can move and cities weren't ready for that. Moving things to the federal level is the final backstop against it, but even that eventually runs out.

I agree, though counties have the same issue with out counties and states with other states. This is one of the reasons the US federal government is fought over so much: many many things ultimately either have to be done federally or not at all. This is because only the federal government does not have to compete with someone "next door" exporting liabilities and importing assets.

Just look at the recent big name moves from California to Texas: Joe Rogan and Elon Musk (just two very public names) needed California's support to start their fortunes, now they have them best move to Texas for lower taxes. You can always fly back for the odd meeting, use their educated workforces and infrastructure and save $.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>From where I'm standing, productivity doesn't look so great. It's an open secret in my remote-heavy, North American west-coast social circle that everyone knocks off at 1-2pm when the east coast people are definitely logged off. Probably the east coast people are doing the same thing, but in the morning. Lots of happily phoning it in. That hasn't been my experience at all. I work for a multinational company with tea…

Can confirm like 80% of my Google friends are 3 hour/day types. But then again, it was only 5-6 hours/day before COVID anyway.

They are living The American Dream that Homer Simpson made us all aspire to. It may not last but at least they were fortunate enough to experience it for now. (I wanna be there :/ )

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#427
post #56

In a way I'm glad that a large chunk of San Francisco's population is getting exactly what they have wanted for years – to get rid of big tech takeover of the city. Maybe they will actually fare better with a significantly reduced number of tech workers and jobs, or maybe they won't. At least we'll know for certain now, and can stop all the whining.

Worked well for Detroit

I was born in San Francisco (so was my Dad, my Mom was born in Oakland and so were her parents etc.) and my family has been through many ups and downs in the Bay Area over many generations. SF used to actually be a cheaper place to live than a lot of parts of Los Angeles. There is no way it will be Detroit though. It's just too desirable of a place to live.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#428
post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida is not a good environment for companies that have female employees, as due to FL's draconian anti-abortion law, state surveillance of pregnancies is now required as miscarriages past 15 weeks now need to be treated as potential homicides.

A swing to the Right will often cause a swing to the Left. In Florida, registered Republicans lead Democrats by less than one percentage point as of August 2022, and there are more than 10M women in Florida, half the population, and only 4.5M senior citizens, less than a quarter of the population. It is my optimistic belief that DeSantis' days in politics are numbered, mostly due to his association with a certain men…

And speaking of Puerto Ricans, where do you think all the Hurricane Maria refugees went?

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Drug use isn't associated with crime and filth until we make it so via harsh city policies. I would, however, like someone to clean the 4 different instances of poop I saw on my 3 block walk this morning.

> Drug use isn’t associated with crime and filth until we make it so via harsh city policies It absolutely is. The more addictive and mind altering a drug is, the more it contributes to users who contribute to crime and filth. Forget drugs, even high alcohol consumption is directly related to more crime and filth.

Alcohol is actually one of the more potent drugs, saying "even alcohol can do it" severely underestimates its destructive power.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#430

I had a cab driver that was from Brazil last week. He said SF was a shit hole and more dangerous than any place in Brazil which is why he left and moved to another state. Thought that was interesting.

Brazil's murder rate is ~10x SF.
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