421–430 of 774 posts
I don't think we need the latest Cloud/AI/ML/Crypto/Web3.0 bullshit to spin up fuckedcompany.com again. I remember thinking in ~2015 going to conferences that this shit was never going to last. Then around 2018 driving (sitting) on 101 listening to advertisements for "C3 IoT AI" on NPR thinking, could a company jam more meaningless buzzwords into a single company name? For shits, looked up their stock just and its do…
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They do, but the biggest way this happens is investors shifting their asset allocations into bonds. So if bonds pay 10% per year a company with a p/e of 30 looks less attractive than if bonds pay 3% per year.
> They do, but the biggest way this happens is investors shifting their asset allocations into bonds. The opposite is true actually, when rates go up there is a sell-off in bonds which is exactly what is happening right now where bond prices are down 10%-20%
I don't understand why that would be. If the expected future cash flow of one asset increases (bonds), and remains the same for another (stocks) why would you allocate more money to stocks and away from bonds?
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Over a long enough time frame the stock market and even the whole economy behaves like a pyramid scheme as it is dependent on new generations to be more people than the previous one.
That really only seems to be true when you allow unchecked mergers and acquisitions, because once you've eliminated competition continuing to grow the market through innovation is almost impossible. I'm not convinced this is some natural "tech" bubble. This feels like an M&A bubble to me.
So, given this... I have a product idea, along with another technical co-founder. I have a few months savings to feed my family, so I could feasibly work on it fulltime. ... Let's say I came up with a demo, a pitch deck, etc. Would people say the chances of getting seed capital is significantly reduced now? Or do we just not know yet?
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> Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Who buys a house in cash? You mean literal suitcases of dollar bills? Or do you just mean something like a bank transfer? What other ways are there to buy something?
They mean paying in full themselves, not backed by mortgage.
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Tesla made more money last quarter than Ford, GM and Toyota. Toyota made 10x the number of cars as Tesla. Tesla is growing vehicle production 50% YoY, while growing profit even faster (having barely hit economies of scale yet). Tesla has a backlog of orders approaching a year in many regions. Everyone else is losing money on their EVs and can't make them in volume production, can't find the batteries for them, becaus…
It's not about revenue, it's about valuation. The revenue can be whatever you want, the valuation determines long run returns. Tesla could be priced at 20x PE or 100x PE and be the same company. Your returns will be vastly different between the two scenarios. OPs point, which is pretty obviously objectively true, is that valuations far exceeded future yields by any fundamental valuation metric. Tech has been valued a…
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Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…
Rising interest rates are starting to slow the housing craziness, at least where I’m at. I was regularly seeing 20-27% over asking with limited to no inspections, new listings going in hours. Nuts. All-cash is basically the new norm. Two years ago that was an issue for regular buyers, but it’s workable now since lenders have jumped into the mix, more and more offer an all-cash option - they make the purchase and tran…
Another way say "20-27% over asking" is "an agent underpriced it by 20-27%". Surely good for their marketing materials, but it comes at the cost of withdrawn information from the seller.
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the fact that you stopped to ask those questions makes me think that you're at minimum, an above average developer. caring about the business and its fundamentals is important beyond just slinging code.
Why? I work to exchange labor for money. They hired me because I generate more value than they are paying me. The company doesn’t “care” about me. It’s purely transactional. If I got hit by a bus tomorrow, they would send flowers and “thoughts and prayers” to my wife and have an open req before my body got cold.
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What sucks is that fiscal policy, ie government spending, is also often not very efficient. Even when rampant corruption doesn’t destroy efficiency, crushing bureaucracy or just plain incompetence will. (Is the DMV a model of efficiency?) So you need a smart balance. And you need competent, honest people in both business AND government. I don’t think that government necessarily is inefficient. The DMV could be a very…
People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…
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People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…
The DMV in my state requires you make an appointment 4-6 months out right now. Walk-in appointments are unavailable or only available during a few hours a few days a week, if they happen to have staff that day. Good luck if you have your drivers license stolen. I sold a car of mine to Carvana in October. I returned the license plate to the DMV immediately, which is how they're notified that you no longer own the vehi…