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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Lack of experienced Russian pilot" This one is so hard for me to imagine, given Russia's long history of aerospace pride and massive military budget. The article attributes it to limited flying time compared to US/UK pilots and unfamiliarity with their latest and most advanced jets. Truly hard to comprehend how a military like Russia's could be suffering from lack of training despite a multi-year lead-up to a massiv…

Russias military budget is only slightly higher than that of the UK (61.7 billion vs 59.2 billion), even though Russia has a bit more than twice the UK population. France and Germany aren't far behind - 52.8 billion and 52.7 billion respectively. I believe Germany recently pledged to raise it's military spending to 100 billion (a lot of flashy headlines but couldn't find details), so soon it will far outspend Russia.

>I believe Germany recently pledged to raise it's military spending to 100 billion (a lot of flashy headlines but couldn't find details), so soon it will far outspend Russia.

Not to 100 billion, by 100 billion. Euros that is.

https://www-tagesschau-de.translate.goog/inland/innenpolitik...

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its easy - imagine massive, gargantuan corruption. On all levels, including the very top and going all the way to the lowest soldier. Heck, they were selling gas to Belarus civilians from their own machines while waiting just across the border during February. And then they ran out of it in Ukraine. Can you imagine US or western Europe soldiers doing something similar en masse? And its not just that - heavy drinking,…

In some branches of psychology, they use term "apoptosis" as a metaphor for widespread self-destruction [1], because such a collapse in social teamwork appears to almost perfectly mirror programmed cell death - as if social collapse of one society to allow the takeover of another more "fit" society is built in to our inherent social or genetic code. Historically speaking, showing such weakness would lead to mass geno…

Fix it how? Russia has been unstable for well over a century

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#423
post #50

I think we need to consider the possibility that much of the Russian army only existed on paper, and that the true strength was overinflated by trickling up good news only throughout all ranks of the military.[1] Readiness was overstated. Equipment was overstated. Training was for parades, not combat. Everyone in the Russian military had assumed they'd never actually fight a real war, so they could grift and sell rat…

> the true strength was overinflated by trickling up When I watched HBO's excellent Chernobyl that was one of the recurring themes. Everybody is lying to their superiors and nobody wants to hear bad news and they suffer because if it. I assumed that was probably exaggerated for the sake of drama but maybe it was actually understated?

From a formerly Communist Czechoslovakia: if telling the truth results in a punishment, everyone will learn to lie habitually.

Of course the resulting system is pretty brittle to shocks.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#424
From what I can gather from a week of obsessively following military experts’ explanations of the conflict, there seem to be two main factors at play.

One is the Russian choice of overall military tactics, which is derived from their political goals. While we can’t know exactly what it is, we can assume that Russia plans to impose some sort of political settlement on Ukraine (could be anything from puppet government to partition to annexation). Whatever this settlement is, Russia needs more than Zelenskyy’s (or some Quisling’s) signature on the dotted line: Russia very much needs at least the grudging acquiescence of the Ukrainian military, state apparatus, and general public. Without this acquiescence, Russia will be tied down indefinitely in counterinsurgency and “state building” with an unsustainable cost in manpower, money, and probably blood. To prevent this outcome, Russia initially tried to bypass most cities and focus on rapidly taking Kyiv and Kharkiv with minimal destruction. Hence the (initial) minimal aerial bombing and the various failed tactics such as yeeting paratroopers into airfields with no backup and sending light vehicles on Leroy Jenkins thunder runs into Kyiv and Kharkiv. Needless to say this plan did not succeed. So now Russia has a choice: ratchet up the destruction and try to grind Ukrainian defenses down, or fold and get out to avoid the long-term quagmire, which might eventually endanger Putin’s political survival at home. Problem is, folding would be a major show of weakness for Putin, which could also endanger his political survival at home. So far, we are beginning to see an intensification of shelling of cities, indicating that he is not folding. If this continues, Ukraine should expect to see more bombing from the Russian Air Force (coupled with more shelling from artillery).

The second factor seems to be the prevalence of portable air-defense systems (MANPADs, such as Stinger missiles) in the Ukrainian military. These systems are much harder to find and eliminate than larger anti-air weapons like the Buk or S-300, to say nothing of fixed-location air defense systems. MANPADs are also cheap—much much cheaper than military aircraft. So it becomes an expensive proposition to use aircraft at low altitude for missions like ground support. With MANPADs continuing to flow to Ukraine from friendly governments, this factor does not appear likely to change any time soon. So while Ukraine may see more high-altitude bombing as Putin intensifies the destruction, the Russian Air Force might remain leery of conducting some types of aerial operations.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#425
post #353
post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

suzerainty You can't just lob a hundred dollar word out like that! I spent several moments trying to figure out what your typo was before allowing the possibility that you didn't have one. a relationship in which one state or other polity controls the foreign policy and relations of a tributary state, while allowing the tributary state to have internal autonomy

Let's not lose sight of the points being made.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yo be fair, those insurgencies did kind of have access to safe zones (Pakistan is next to Afghanistan) and a good supply of weapons which definitely helped them.

It was, however, nothing close to the levels of support Ukraine is getting. And those insurgencies faced a vastly superior US armed forces.

Those American forces also had vastly longer supply lines to sustain. What the Russians lack in financing and capability, the make up a lot with proximate borders, time zones, etc.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#427
post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

I figured it was that concerted civilian targeting will force NATO to act. Or perhaps that the close ties between the two countries is still somewhat able to override Putin's shitty bloodthirsty instincts in some ways.

I'm beginning to doubt that.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#428
post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

> Did they really launch this invasion on the assumption that the people of Ukraine would just roll over and accept foreign rule?

> Their options seems to be (a) beat a hasty retreat; (b) impose a bloody total subjugation of the population; (c) face a decades-long insurgency that will bleed them dry.

> We need to find a variant of (a) that allows Putin to save face, because his default will be (b).

This is precisely the conclusion I've come to.

I think the only (a) is give him some territory. That seems unlikely. Perhaps retake all of Crimea and then give him part of it?

I'm really worried about (b). I have 3 friends/coworkers there.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#430
post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

> We need to find a variant of (a) that allows Putin to save face Recognize the annexation of Crimea and promise immediate sanctions rollbacks the moment the last Russian troop leaves Ukraine (other than Donbas and Luhansk, that ship has sailed).

I also think this is the most viable offramp. Everyone gets to plausibly claim victory, if not total victory.

Russia keeps the money pit dear to the hearts of many Russians and doesn't become a Chinese vassal state. Ukraine ends the bloodshed and saves their sovereignty for the cost of what they have already lost.

There will be sticking points, for sure, notably around Putin himself, reparations, and yes, the status of DPR and LPR, but I hold out hope that they don't forestall a potential deal.

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