Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 12:23 PM UTC

oblio wrote: post #234

maxdo wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, https://www.tesla.com/safety https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KR2N_Q8ep8 Tesla roll out cars in generations. So just take a $40k Model 3/Y platform was introduced in 2017 and compare it with any car been introduced that year. My friend bought a BMW in 2019 for similar money, it doesn't have half of that. Maybe you can have them but you have to buy extra packages for extra money. Tesla don't sell safety features…

> My friend bought a BMW in 2019 for similar money, it doesn't have half of that. Maybe you can have them but you have to buy extra packages for extra money. #1 lesson of buying cars is: 1. Don't buy German cars if you don't have to (or if you buy them, never complain about the price of their optional equipment). The corollary is: 1". Buy Korean or Japanese cars.

Post by nottorp » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 12:43 PM UTC

KennyBlanken wrote: post #348

contravariant wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So to summarize: - Freeways account for 93% of distance travelled with Autopilot - Freeways account for 28% of the distance travelled by regular drivers. - "vehicles on non-freeways crashed 2.01 times more often per mile" a quick back of the envelop calculation suggests merely driving on the freeway lowers accidents per mile by ~40%, which accounts for most of the difference between Autopilot and regular drivers.

There are additional factors. Teslas are on average substantially newer than the average US passenger car fleet and thus have significantly more safety features and driver assistance tech, are better maintained, etc. If Tesla compared only to vehicles of similar age and class (Audi/BMW/Mercedes etc) their stats would be much less favorable.

Post by NikolaNovak » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 1:17 PM UTC

hedora wrote: post #262

aspenmayer wrote: post #88

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> Does that mean that expectation is all automated cars will go exactly the speed limit on the left lane of North American superhighways? It’s already against road rules to stay in the passing lane when cars behind wish to pass, regardless of the speed limit, or if you’re already driving at it. If cars behind desire to overtake, give way. This is already codified. No need to blame the cars or the self-driving tech. I…

Not in California. Left lane fast, right lane slow isn't the law, and you can pass in whatever lane you'd like. Studies show that, adjusted for congestion and weather, SF Bay Area drivers have some of the highest accidents per mile in the country.

Post by kamranjon » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 1:28 PM UTC

magicroot75 wrote: post #419

nja wrote: post #44

I was just watching this video of a Tesla trying and miserably failing to drive itself through the streets of Boston: https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1488555256162172928 A number of these near-crashes seem to be pretty odd errors (a couple of times it just decided to drive on the wrong side of the street?) -- albeit ones that one _could_ see drivers unfamiliar with the area making. If a human driver started dri…

In those interventions it's not 100% clear the car would have generated an accident. They get very "close" so the driver intervenes. And of course this is the safe thing to do. But highly sensitive AI driving should be able to come much closer to crashing than the average human, without issue. Perhaps it's the drivers that will need to adapt. Is Tesla accounting for this fear factor already?

Post by HWR_14 » Thu, Feb 03, 2022, 1:32 PM UTC

originalvichy wrote: post #426

josefx wrote: post #402

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> are better maintained, etc. Recent statistics released by TüV^1 show that among relatively new cars Tesla competes with Dacia for the highest failure rate among all cars that go through Germanies mandatory road worthiness tests. ^1 https://www.pcwelt.de/news/TUeV-warnt-vor-typischer-Schwachs...

Go find the HN discussion on this report. German processes and bureaucracy surrounding road worthiness checks is not favourable towards non-established car brands like Tesla. In short: big car brands' cars go through a preliminary check at manufacturers' licensed dealerships, and only after that get sent to the government's checks. It enables manufacturers to fix cars before independent verification so their safety n…