Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

cbc.ca

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

421–430 of 553 posts

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#421

Post by mrcode007 »

imtringued wrote: post #295
mrcode007 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/canadian-news/canada... This was predictable and extremely profitable trade. I made a lot of money this year from this alone. The price increase was a result of a usual 90 day delivery for new contracted lumber and nobody anticipati…

> This is false, the mills were expanding and the increased throughout increased supply and prices crashed (along with construction work backing out) Yeah and that was obviously the entire idea about the trump tariffs. Saw mills in the USA are insufficient, that's the point of the tariffs, those jobs are supposed to come back when capacity is being increased.

Those jobs never left. The largest lumber producer in the world, from Canada, operates saw mills in the USA. They don’t pay tariffs on product made in the USA. Side note, the tariffs are always paid on import by the importer. Not by the exporter. Imposing tariffs on foreign goods usually raises prices for the end buyer.

Here is more information including a 7% job growth for loggers

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/farming-fishing-and-forestry/mobile/...

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#422

Post by willyt »

datavirtue wrote: post #376
magicalhippo wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Realize too, the General Contractor just hires licensed subs, and takes a healthy cut off your nut. Some close relatives bought a plot in a newly developed area, and tried to find a contractor to build their home. After listening to others in the area, it was pretty clear there was a couple of good, reputable ones and one avoid-at-all-costs. So they went with one of the reputable ones. The guy decides at some point…

LMAO!!! This is a perfect example. Not surprised, in fact this is what I would expect to happen. People have no idea how difficult it is to become a good builder and make money. It rarely happens. Stick to buying spec houses. They will always be better than a custom home because people get to examine the house before they agree to buy it. Whole world changes when you are under contract for a build/remodel.

All the <10 yr old spec houses in housing estate near me have got huge mould problems as somebody cut corners on either the installation of the insulation, the detailed design of the floor/ground connection or the ventilation, or all three. In the UK spec housing has a reputation for being very poorly built. Try claiming anything under a building warranty and you'll realise you get nothing more than minor cosmetic repairs without going up against the warranty company's lawyers.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#423

Post by katzgrau »

ryanackley wrote: post #274
hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

The biggest problem with being an owner builder is you don't have an ongoing relationship with sub-contractors. Which means that for any subs you hire, you will be their lowest priority and their smallest concern. Also, you don't really know what you're doing so you will think they made a mistake when they didn't and you won't always recognize real mistakes. I did this for my new house that was being built before, du…

It's a good idea to hire a retired contractor or home inspector to check work quality throughout the project. It's extra expense but serves as insurance.

Just having someone will keep the GC (and usually the subs) honest most of the time. And it's super valuable when you have someone knowledgeable to go to bat for you if needed.

I recently did a remodel with a well regarded GC in my area, but still had an outside person to inspect for me. Saved me a lot of time/headaches, and probably only spent a few thousand extra

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#424

Post by pixl97 »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #324
wccrawford wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the customers are the ones quitting, they forfeit the deposit by their contract. The developers aren't held to a timeline in the contract. They just stall forever, working on the ones willing to pay the most. If they ever ran out of better customers, they would eventually get around to the cheaper customers. They've done something unethical, but they haven't broken the contract.

Right. But to the extent the developers are doing this on purpose, as part of their business model, this very much feels like a racket.

The only reason they developers can do this is there is a lack of people that can build houses creating a non competitive market. A huge portion of US home building is built on migrant labor which has been in short supply since 2016 and even further pressure from covid. Moreso housing is a boom bust style market that squeezes out competition during busts and increases prices during booms. This is how supply and demand curves work in this market.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#425

Post by BurningFrog »

Scoundreller wrote: post #283
pjc50 wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just pictured a typical computer developer in a wet lot, with an unhappy wife. Have you heard of the TV programme Grand Designs ? It's just this over and over again. Sometimes the wife is pregnant, sometimes they're living in a caravan on site. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/grand-designs They're not trying to build anything as simple as a house, either, the "grand" part implies some mad architectural vision…

> while also looking completely horrendous in its rural setting Reminds me of my grandpa’s house kinda. Well, he’s from Southern Europe, so he built a brick box amongst a bunch of mid century/post WWII vinyl siding houses. Nothing wrong with it, but sticks out. Sure is solid though. And a cube is a good use of materials to maximize inside space to perimeter ratio.

Love it. Every village needs an eccentric.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#426

Post by jmeister »

baremetal wrote: post #400

i quit my software job and bought 20 acres of undeveloped farmland. then i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house. built a polebarn on the land so far. and getting ready to dig a foundation probably next year. its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.

Awesome. Best of luck!

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#427

Post by BurningFrog »

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37
mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

> That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. Getting approvals is the tough part.

This is what's wrong with America.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#428

Post by pixl97 »

bregma wrote: post #303
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes! This has been my nagging question for years too. I make 5x the median wage in my county and my county has the second highest wage in the US. I see all these $M houses being sold left and right and I'd never feel comfortable buying a $M plus house. What gives?

Now is the time to begin the discussion on shorting real estate.

Attempting to time the market is a great way to go bankrupt. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#429

Post by albrewer »

orthoxerox wrote: post #300
otterCompile wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's so insane. My 5-year old GTX 1060 (320€) is still better than a new gtx 1650 for 250€. Right now there is no direction to upgrade my system except for byuing an apu, but since my 1060 is way faster this doesn't make sence unless i want to get rid of my gpu to get a smaller case (e.g. X300)

I was lucky to buy a 1080 Ti for like 500$ off a miner a few years back. Bitcoin at that moment ended up cheap enough that GPU mining became unprofitable, and everyone was liquidating their farms.

I got one of those at retail price a few years ago and it's still one of the best cards out there in terms of video memory. I'd have to upgrade to a 3080Ti or 3090 to have it beat.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#430

Post by rootusrootus »

btbuildem wrote: post #404
bildung wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the increased prices. I'm a bit doubtful about this because I know that even German mills started to produce lumber with US dimensions, causing shortages for metric lumber locally.

Haha, and that was probably some of the straightest, most consistent lumber seen in North America in decades

Don't shop for lumber at Home Depot.
Post reply on HN