Earlier quoted context omitted.
These numbers can be looked at two ways. Germany actually failed in its efforts to get off the coal so far, I think. Just from these numbers you could as easily be making his point as yours.
Germany actually failed in its efforts to get off the coal so far There was no way to 'fail' such efforts, because until last year, there was no actual roadmap for getting rid of coal. Instead, there were CO2 reduction goals. We were going to miss the mark for 2020 (40% reduction compared to 1990), but thanks to Covid, we've actually met the target...
Activists who embrace nuclear power
421–430 of 598 posts
Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power
#422Earlier quoted context omitted.
So nuclear has been up and running in mainstream use for what, fifty years at this point? If that waste sticks around for just 10,000 years (optimistic), and assuming no increase in demand over today (which is laughable), your ‘just one football field’ waste site is actually two hundred times bigger. And that’s raw waste, it doesn’t include containment for each deposit you make. Not to mention the issues we’re alread…
Two hundred football fields is absolutely trifling even now and much less on the scale of 10 000 years. You're also ignoring the fact that reactors that recycle spent fuel have been made and can be drastically improved, so demand for storage of waste as well as how hard they are to contain can very realistically go down.
Yet today, there's about a quarter of a million tonnes of waste in holding storage at various locations awaiting proper disposal. The only deep geological disposal facility currently operational is WIPP and of the three that have ever existed in the world, the other two in Germany have permanently closed. It should be noted that both those sites have major issues with long-term stability and significant ongoing investment is occurring to attempt to remediate them.
The issues at WIPP in 2014 are a clear example of how non-trifling the task is: Underground truck fire, followed a few days later by (unrelated) airborne release of radioactive materials due to a waste barrel being packed with, and I am not making this up, the wrong kind of kitty litter. After a three-year hiatus and at a cost of five hundy million to remediate, it's been running again for a couple of years and due to permanently close in as little as three years.
This will be a good thing because ceasing operations and permanently sealing the site drastically reduces the risk of incidents due to human fallibility. Now in fairness it's a pilot site even in name, so procedures should be improved on the next iterations. But this is a field clearly in it's infancy, it's not yet matured.
I just can't agree that disposal even of the waste generated so far is trifling. When the waste of today is on track for secure, permanent, safe storage I'll be a bit more optimistic.
>You're also ignoring the fact that reactors that recycle spent fuel have been made and can be drastically improved, so demand for storage of waste as well as how hard they are to contain can very realistically go down.
Yeah I hope so. Re-processing of a significant chunk of the existing waste would be an encouraging sign.
Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power
#423Articles like this miss the main point and instead focus on culture war material. There are plenty of sites that would happily accept more nuclear being built, but all other forms of energy have undercut the cost of nuclear. It's no longer cost competitive, and places like China that adopt a "let's try everything and see what works best" approach have heavily pulled back on nuclear. The issues aren't safety, waste, a…
Just stop the anti-nuclear argument please. Cost shouldn't be a thing if it means we can avoid a climate disaster. The whole, 'nuclear is too expensive' argument was had 10 years ago with electric vehicles and look where we are now. If cost is your main motivation to be anti-nuclear, you're hiding a bias whether you're aware of it or not. We need a replacement for base load power and nuclear can fill that capacity.
Cost is also the reason that what was supposed to be the reactor of the US's nuclear renaissance, the AP1000, has had all its projects cancelled. The two projects that started construction under Obama were financial failures, with one getting cancelled after spending $9B on a hole in the ground, the other is about to go online after going 2x+ over budget for time and money.
Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power
#424Earlier quoted context omitted.
> People have done the math. Land availability is not a bottleneck on this. I'm sorry but people have done the maths and consider land availability to be a major bottleneck for solar and wind (with the fact that it is intermittent). That's like one of the first point put forward in the Bill Gates'book everyone seems to be talking about nowadays. Offshore capacity means it's harder to estimate the ceiling for wind pro…
I don't understand why people are screaming at each other to do the math, or referring to others who have hypothetically done the math, or accusing each other of lying, or claiming that solar panels are made out of rare earth elements (!!), instead of just doing the math themselves here in the comments. It's almost as if they're more interested in being vicious to one another than in finding out the truth. World mark…
I responded to so many messages and I tried my best to always refer to 'solar and wind' in tandem (because without wind as a kind of a complement, solar is completely not feasible), and the one message where I got sloppy and referenced only solar panel with a passing reference to 'rare earth minerals' and that's the only aspect that is picked up. OK. Let's move past this. Let's say neither windmills nor solar panels use any rare earth minerals, just for argument's sake. That's not really true, certainly not for windmills, but let's say that it's true ... because that's not the salient point here.
Re: your calculations. You forgot that Solar and Wind need to be overprovisioned because they not only need to collect enough energy for right now, but also enough to store to bridge the daily, seasonal and inter-annual intermittency. There are no batteries capable of that, but if there were, you have to add that in there somewhere as well because that road leads to more land-use and more ecosystem stress.
>This is 550 thousand km², a circle of 420 km radius (groovy, mang!), about 80% of the area of Texas
That is an insane amount of land - I don't understand why so many are so flippant on this point. After all, you're placing high-tech devices in that area. Devices that need maintenance. Devices that break-down. Devices that need to be decommissioned and landfilled and then replaced. If you're covering an area of 550 thousand km² with panels, there is an equivalent volume that you need to dig up somewhere else, ship and process, and of course you then have to landfill, and you have to do that every few decades forever. Right? Are we OK with that? Is the environment OK with that? After all, this is on top of everything thing else we will be doing, like agriculture and transportation.
And this is for TODAY. The world is projected to grow to around 10-12 billion. At the same time, per capita energy use will continue to increase.
>You should be ashamed of yourselves
This kind of emotional appeal is not conducive to good discourse. I made an argument how I see things today. For all the talk about wind and solar being the energy of the future, I don't actually see where solar and wind are actually powering a modern economy. I see a lot hope and handwaving. I see Germany building pipelines to ship natural from Russia and signing multi-decade contracts with that nation while being held up as a model nation. Why not invest in solar and wind deployment instead, especially since Russia is a geopolitical adversary in many ways?
I don't understand how the intermittency gap is bridged given that there is no battery technology capable of storing excess generation enough to last a minimum of a a few days, but more likely several weeks. And finally, I see a world that while growing in population to around 10-12 billion, will exponentially increase per capita energy requirements at the same time. I look at all that, I shudder at the amount of solar and wind collectors that will be required to manufacture and deploy and the stress it will put on existing ecosystems. I don't understand why so many pretend this is a solved-problem, especially since we have an energy-dense alternative, with no engineering challenges to solve and with decades of experience.
Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power
#425Earlier quoted context omitted.
Huh? Nuclear is an existing solution to climate change, though. More existing than wind and solar. It provides more electricity in the US than wind and solar combined. The problem of climate change would already have been worse without it. So it already is part of the solution. It doesn’t have to be and isn’t the entire solution. But no activist calling for the end of nuclear electricity is doing any favors to climat…
I always took it as: As the nuclear plants from the 70s and 80s are getting decommissioned because of age, there is no plan to replace them with new nuclear. So they should be replace them with wind and solar, because wind and solar is a cheaper, quicker, and more reliable alternative then new nuclear (as this tread demonstrates). I don’t see the debate as existing nuclear vs. new wind and solar, but as new nuclear v…
However, the 2 plants that started under Obama were failures, with one getting cancelled after spending $9B on a hole in the ground and the other about to come online after going 2x+ over time and money budgets. Westinghouse, the maker of the AP1000, went through bankruptcy as a result. All prospective AP1000 projects have been halted.
No generator in their right mind would order one without huge additional subsidy from the government, guaranteeing against construction risk.
Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power
#426Earlier quoted context omitted.
I read Pinker’s book — I’m familiar with the argument. I also think it looks at a data point (now) and compares it to the long tail of history, and says, “things are great!” I’m not sure if you look at the curve’s derivative since, say, 1995, it’s clear we’re heading in a good direction. And I’m an optimist. There have been warning signs flashing “systems failure” for a little while now, like a “check engine light” p…
>I'm not sure if you look at the curve’s derivative since, say, 1995, it’s clear we’re heading in a good direction. Crime was near all-time highs in the US, Europe's deadliest war since WWII was raging, numerous civil wars in Africa and elsewhere were claiming millions... It's clear it's way better, and definitely got better since your arbitrary timeline. >I don’t think there’s been a year in modern history like 2020…
I can’t believe folks like you can’t hear your own idiocy. And if crime is your only measure of a society heading in the right direction, you are denser than lead.
It’s not alarmist to say a dipshit had the football and that scared people. How is that alarmist? Huh? are you saying crime is down, so he wasn’t a dipshit? Or, crime is down so I don’t need to worry.
Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power
#427Earlier quoted context omitted.
> In this context, solar and wind are atrocious and a total disaster because they have massive land-use requirements. No, they don't. There is a lot of empty land in the world that isn't useful for people to live in or to grow crops due to lack of rainfall, which also makes those sites more valuable for solar energy. We'd consider a utility-scale solar array that's a couple square miles to be absolutely huge, but plo…
>There is a lot of empty land in the world that isn't useful for people to live in or to grow crops due to lack of rainfall, which also makes those sites more valuable for solar energy. There is no such thing as 'empty land'. Every square meter of Earth is part of some ecosystem that is under stress due to human activity. Solar and wind compound this problem. >then reduce that to 30 to account for night-time How abou…
If you are honestly worried about this, compare the amount of material that goes into a solar panel to the quantity of fuel needed to generate an equivalent amount of energy in that panels lifetime. Yet the damage we complain about with fossil fuels is not the mining damage, it's the change to the atmosphere. If this amount of material is really so stressful to you, compare the amount of material we use to just build the housing necessary for the world, to the amount of material needed to provide their energy needs. A typical single family roof has more than enough square footage to fully provide for all the energy needs of a household, now think of the orders of magnitude more material that are below that roof than the solar panels consist of.
However far more of the panels are recyclable, and valuable enough to be recycled. There's aluminum, glass, etc.
Solar also really works very well dual purposed with other land uses. Whether that's farming, or over parking lots, or on roofs. For dual purposing solar and farming on the same land, each use loses less than 50% productivity.
Land use and pane waste are complete red herrings that don't pass a sniff test. They persist because there are powerful forces that keep on repeating these concerns, but to be truly concerned about them, one should be far far far more concerned about every single aspect of modern life. Since I never hear the people bemoaning solar pane waste also advocate for banning single family homes and more than 30 m^2 of living space per person, I'm not sure these complaints can be taken as good faith.
Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power
#428Earlier quoted context omitted.
It’s disingenuous to factor in mining requirement for solar panels but not uranium. Sure the supply chain to support the infrastructure required for 10 billion people is a lot on the environment, and we certainly could do a lot better. But these include better recycling of existing minerals (this includes solar panels), better forest management, better land use for food production, more careful road design that doesn…
Nuclear fuel is several orders of magnitude more energy dense than solar or wind, so the amount of fuel required is shockingly low, especially compared to how many resources all those panels and windmills require to build and transport. > How much land solar and wind farms use seems kind of minuscule next to all these efforts. And given how urgent the climate disaster is, complaining about land use from solar farms s…
I think that you'll find the comparison in fuel densities between nuclear and solar/wind does not show nuclear in a good light.
Since nuclear fuel doesn't get converted into energy on its own, you had better also include the reactor, turbines, and cooling system if you are going to talk about comparisons of density.
And once those get factored in, nuclear plants are found to be absolutely massive, with nuclear and the fuel-less solar and wind needing the same order of magnitude of mass to generate electricity.
> What are you basing this on? Nuclear technology is being held back by regulation and economics, not by engineering or technology.
The bad economics are driven by the engineering and technology. And the regulations are also driven by the very nature of the technology. It's not great technology for the modern world.
Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power
#429Earlier quoted context omitted.
ok well lets settle it. how much waste would be produced if the whole country ran on nuclear? regardless of the volume of waste, how serious is a breach of containment? is the waste a target for terrorists? can it be weaponized?
> ok well lets settle it. how much waste would be produced if the whole country ran on nuclear? That waste goes into Yucca mountain, and it's behind / underneath 100s of meters of neutron heavy metals. If we were exclusively powered by nuclear power for a century without recycling, it'd be something like 100 football fields. Absolutely, completely, utterly inconsequential. 1 inch of neutron-heavy lead is enough to di…
Yucca Mountain hasn't accepted waste and there is no plan for it to begin accepting it. The government collects a tax on nuclear generation and used it to construct Yucca Mountain but political considerations have blocked it being used.
There is no current plan for long term storage of nuclear waste in the US.
Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power
#430Earlier quoted context omitted.
Afaik, nuclear energy is more expensive only because it is regulated far beyond what any other form of energy for the same level of risk. Disposal of nuclear waste is a huge expense, but the main waste product generated by natural gas (CO2) gets away scot free despite literally being the cause of what might be our generation's biggest problem. The end-of-life expenses of nuclear plants are included in the cost sheets…
That's simply not true. Nuclear has always and is still receiving significant indirect subsidies. A huge subsidy that nuclear power gets is that plants are not insured against incidents (because essentially nobody is willing to sell them insurance), so it's essentially the state that does it. Also many argue that the nuclear waste storage costs are significantly underestimated, I mean I understand estimating cost for…