The stock market and economy have parted ways • Hacker News Board

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#421

Post by importantbrian » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:23 PM UTC

rrrrrrrrrrrryan wrote: post #418

rtuulik wrote: post #398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What head start in driverless tech? Right now, Tesla isn't even among top companies developing self-driving car technology. Also, it's would pretty naive to think that governments would allow a single company to have such sort of monopoly like you describe.

The headstart is all the data they've collected by having actual cars, on actual roads, driven by actual humans. The idea is that gathering this data may be a prerequisite to resolving the bajillions fringe-cases that are currently in the way of level 4 autonomy.

This assumes that the other manufacturers don't also gather data from actual cars, on actual roads, driven by actual humans. Which is not the case. Toyota for example has it's TSS system. Toyota also makes around 10 million cars a year. Tesla makes around 370k. Even if they had a head start it's not going to take long for them to get lapped.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#422

Post by imtringued » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:25 PM UTC

runT1ME wrote: post #369

mhuffman wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I built a valuation model of TSLA and came up with a fair intrinsic price of less than $200. Of course it is hard to value anything right now because coming up with a discount rate is fraught and you have government manipulation of the asset market as well. I don't know if there are waaaay smarter and informed people than me that know something about TSLA's long-term growth prospects or it is just bing meme-ed into o…

Here's one way to look at TSLA. I see zero chance of Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagon, or GM making all of their direct competitors obsolete. With Tesla's massive monopoly on driver data (likely a prerequisite for level 5 automation) and head start in driverless tech overal there is absolutely a chance that TSLA puts all the aforementioned companies out of business. I don't know how likely that is, but it's a hell o…

Tesla's driverless technology is years behind the current leaders.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#423

Post by jelling » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:30 PM UTC

MichaelDickens wrote: post #390

Lavery wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One other note on Tesla in particular, that I think the other comments here have largely missed: Tesla is--and has been for a while now--the largest market cap company that is not included in the S&P 500. To be considered for inclusion in the S&P, companies must show at least 4 consecutive quarters of profitability. Tesla's next earnings release (which is in roughly two weeks) has the possibility of being that fourth…

I would expect some activity like this, but it seems implausible that it could drive up the price >2x. Surely lots of these would-be arbitrageurs will end up losing a lot of money?

If an index contains a stock then corresponding index funds must buy it no matter the price.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#424

Post by empath75 » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:32 PM UTC

runT1ME wrote: post #369

mhuffman wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I built a valuation model of TSLA and came up with a fair intrinsic price of less than $200. Of course it is hard to value anything right now because coming up with a discount rate is fraught and you have government manipulation of the asset market as well. I don't know if there are waaaay smarter and informed people than me that know something about TSLA's long-term growth prospects or it is just bing meme-ed into o…

Here's one way to look at TSLA. I see zero chance of Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagon, or GM making all of their direct competitors obsolete. With Tesla's massive monopoly on driver data (likely a prerequisite for level 5 automation) and head start in driverless tech overal there is absolutely a chance that TSLA puts all the aforementioned companies out of business. I don't know how likely that is, but it's a hell o…

What’s your story if self driving never works.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#425

Post by imtringued » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:32 PM UTC

Spivak wrote: post #368

mhuffman wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I built a valuation model of TSLA and came up with a fair intrinsic price of less than $200. Of course it is hard to value anything right now because coming up with a discount rate is fraught and you have government manipulation of the asset market as well. I don't know if there are waaaay smarter and informed people than me that know something about TSLA's long-term growth prospects or it is just bing meme-ed into o…

Question from someone who has no dog in this fight. If your model is right would it be in you best interest to short their stock or do you believe that the market can "remain irrational" forever?

Tesla's stock price was irrational years ago. Shorting would have certainly lost you money.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#426

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:33 PM UTC

m0zg wrote: post #273

hitpointdrew wrote: post #20

> “I’m not sure what will trigger a sustained sell-off in stocks, but surging [virus] infections and another round of more business closures will be difficult for investors to ignore much longer.” An alternative place to put investments will trigger it. When your options are savings accounts paying 0.25% interest, and treasury notes paying nothing, and CD's being garbage, what are your alternatives for investing? If…

Wall Street is looking where everyone should - at the deaths. And deaths have been going down since mid-April. It's just that recently (about a month ago) we've massively ramped up testing throughput. We're on track to become the most tested large country in the world in a few weeks. And the "lagging deaths" have so far failed to materialize.

[deleted]

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#427

Post by Apocryphon » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:34 PM UTC

thephyber wrote: post #409

hellisothers wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, in world where you’re trying to trade gold for food gold is a “fiat” currency as well. It has no intrinsic value and if we’re struggling to get food and water I’m not going to want to accept anything for my food except strict bartering. If you’re buying gold for the end of the world you’d be better off buying cigarettes and tiny bottles of booze.

Gold isn't a "fiat" currency. It's a commodity that acts as a store of value. A fiat is paper which is asserted to have a specific value (likely unenforceable in a post-apocalyptic world). A commodity has a value because that's what the market will bear. Gold does have intrinsic value. It's used for electronics plating and for jewelry. Other precious metals can augment gold as commodities, each having different intri…

Would a post-apocalyptic world really care about electrical conductors and crafting new jewelry, though? It feels like everyone is making assumptions about what people would want in such a world.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#428

Post by ianhorn » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:40 PM UTC

svachalek wrote: post #326

armanboyaci wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure about the German stock market? I've googled and found this https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CDAX-Kursindex.png

You've always got to consider inflation over the long term, and in this case there is a well known hyperinflation period during the Weimar days. (I don't know about the GP statistic but this graph is clearly not meaningful)

If your currency is going to undergo hyperinflation, aren't equity or physical goods exactly where you want to keep your money?

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#429

Post by apta » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:45 PM UTC

beervirus wrote: post #269

apta wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I say interest I mean money for money transactions, like savings accounts in banks or bonds where the return is set ahead of time and is practically guaranteed (i.e. usury). Investing is fine since it can incur a gain or loss.

Why does that make investing fine?

Because it does not exploit people, unlike usury.

Re: The stock market and economy have parted ways

#430

Post by apta » Mon, Jul 13, 2020, 10:47 PM UTC

prussian wrote: post #228

apta wrote: post #76

Interest is one of the main reasons the economic and financial system is in ruins. It is an exploitative, parasitic practice and we've known that for thousands of years. But some people only care about their pockets.

Even islamic banking expects some kind of ROI. Perhaps it isn't strict usury, but there is generally some kind of ownership or profit sharing happening.

Expecting is different from enforcing in the contract, as is the case with interest/usury. As long as the contract allows for a gain or loss (other caveats holding), then it should be fine in general. On a side note, there is no strict definition of what "Islamic banking" is, much of so called Islamic banking you hear about today, isn't.