Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#421

Post by KoftaBob » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 5:56 PM UTC

_curious_ wrote: post #227

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #31

Unemployment benefits have been significantly expanded under the Coronavirus aid bill. The benefit amounts will sound small if you're living in an expensive city like SF or Seattle, but $600/week from the federal government and a similar amount from state unemployment insurance means that unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now. That goes a long way in most parts of the country, es…

"unemployment benefits can pay up to an equivalent of $50-60K/year right now." Wow. It's bizarre one can neither create nor add value yet proceed to receive thousands of dollars for an extended period of time (often multiples more than they will ever "pay in" to the system). I know too many people already milking it before the pandemic (including family & friends). I accept that it is their personal choice and I don'…

Perhaps the full name of the benefit, "Unemployment Insurance", will clear things up for you. It's insurance that everyone pays into, so that those who do happen to lose their jobs have an insurance to fall back on until they find another job.

You're extrapolating what's essentially an insurance policy into this image of some luxurious welfare state where no one has any incentive to work. That's not what unemployment benefits are.

Your commentary is the equivalent of arguing that receiving thousands of dollars to replace your car after it gets totaled is a "hand out", when in reality that's quite literally what insurance is for.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#422

Post by malandrew » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 5:56 PM UTC

jiofih wrote: post #160

matwood wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct. Todays number isn't even much of a surprise, although it's still shocking to see. I thought the consensus estimate was way too low. Some analysts have been kicking around 20%-30% unemployment before this is all over.

The US economy looks more like a pyramid scheme than ever.

The virtuous cycle provided by a functioning market is not a pyramid scheme. Not even close.

Pyramid schemes transfer wealth from the bottom to the top while creating no new additional wealth. America is creating tons of additional wealth and how much each gets from that wealth is proportional to one's leverage and one's leverage is generally proportional to how much one is able to contribute to wealth generation (in either talent or useful capital)

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#423

Post by unethical_ban » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 5:56 PM UTC

doh wrote: post #415

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

This is just a personal opinion, but I think ~15% unemployment peak is far too optimistic. I believe that 50-75% of restaurants will never reopen. 20-35% of small to mid-size hotels, venues, spas will declare bankruptcy within this year. Both employ a lot of people. So I'm afraid the number is going to much higher, maybe even double.

Half of all restaurants in the US will not reopen? Multi-year depression?

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#424

Post by Avshalom » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 5:58 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #83

aluminussoma wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What will the employees, in the US at least, do for health insurance? A pandemic is when you need it. These employees will be strained to pay for COBRA. I fear that we will see revolutions in countries where this is not contained, from either a health or economic perspective. An old saying is that you should buy stocks when there is blood in the streets. I hope that doesn't become literal.

> What will the employees, in the US at least, do for health insurance? A pandemic is when you need it. These employees will be strained to pay for COBRA. Strongly agree that health care coverage is a major concern. We have a long way to go toward an ideal situation. Sadly, many of the people who are first to be laid off are least likely to have employer-sponsored insurance benefits in the first place (hourly jobs).…

>> If they already had ACA-subsidized healthcare plans, nothing really changes for them.

just a reminder for the audience though: the Trump admin is currently trying to get the supreme court to rule the entire ACA unconstitutional.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#425

Post by carleverett » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 5:58 PM UTC

generalpass wrote: post #404

s1artibartfast wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any sources that compare government and private savings at the two time points? I am surprised by your claim that savings were higher at the height of the great depression

> Do you have any sources that compare government and private savings at the two time points? I am surprised by your claim that savings were higher at the height of the great depression Not immediately, but the U.S. was on a gold standard at the time and funded the war through war bonds (and establishment of income taxes) which were largely purchased domestically. The gold standard bit is important because the govern…

It sounds like you're arguing against the idea of debt altogether. Debt is a great, great thing that's allowed us to accomplish way more as a society than we ever could before. Way faster too.

Yes, there is irresponsible lending that winds up in temporary value being created that we later find out was fake, and yes it's scary when the government is that lender. Maybe ironically, gold now works as a store of value that hedges against government money going bad.

But debt it still a great system that will continue to work well after COVID-19.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#426

Post by tachyonbeam » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 5:58 PM UTC

doh wrote: post #415

stupandaus wrote: post #2

Building on my analysis from last week: 1. This week's 6.6M new jobless claims represents ~4% of the estimated ~160-165M US Workforce. 2. This is incremental to the 3.3M new jobless claims filed week ending 3/21, totaling ~10M total jobless claims in the past 2 weeks. 3. The US unemployment rate was ~3.5% as of EOM February [1], so cumulatively that means we've hit ~10% unemployment as of EOW 3/28 (~10M incremental j…

This is just a personal opinion, but I think ~15% unemployment peak is far too optimistic. I believe that 50-75% of restaurants will never reopen. 20-35% of small to mid-size hotels, venues, spas will declare bankruptcy within this year. Both employ a lot of people. So I'm afraid the number is going to much higher, maybe even double.

I know it's really not PC to talk about this (how dare you value money over human lives!?), but at what point does the economic damage this causes become too much? 15% joblessness would be ~50M americans. If just 0.1% of them commit suicide as a result of losing their jobs or businesses, that would be 50,000 dead.

Maybe there's some kind of intermediate between forcing everyone to stay home and not having any mitigation measures in place whatsoever? Maybe a midway strategy would be less destructive. Protecting the economy isn't just about protecting the rich. The rich will be fine, they will get huge government bailouts (zero-interest loans). However, as you point out, a large percentage of small businesses will never reopen. If anything, this crisis is hugely benefitting Amazon & co.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#427

Post by doh » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 5:59 PM UTC

unethical_ban wrote: post #423

doh wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is just a personal opinion, but I think ~15% unemployment peak is far too optimistic. I believe that 50-75% of restaurants will never reopen. 20-35% of small to mid-size hotels, venues, spas will declare bankruptcy within this year. Both employ a lot of people. So I'm afraid the number is going to much higher, maybe even double.

Half of all restaurants in the US will not reopen? Multi-year depression?

That's my expectation, correct. I'm definitely not the only one [0]

[0] https://www.atlantamagazine.com/dining-news/chef-hugh-acheso...

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#428

Post by usaar333 » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 5:59 PM UTC

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #398

TeMPOraL wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any speculations on how bad is this going to get? Should I stock up on TP, on food, or on vodka and ammo?

My predictions: The curve will barely flatten, before 'peak infection' is reached. At the current rate, we have only 1 or 2 months to accomplish this, and no progress so far. Many folks will get sick; the oldest will die at home. For others it will suck, and there will be no help even from neighbors, churches etc (like the last time, they quit functioning entirely) Some will not notice at all, apparently. They will s…

> The curve will barely flatten, before 'peak infection' is reached. At the current rate, we have only 1 or 2 months to accomplish this, and no progress so far.

The curve is flat (at least the new "X" curve) in both Seattle and the Bay Area. That's definitely progress.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#429

Post by redisman » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:00 PM UTC

swalsh wrote: post #35

I've seen a lot of small businesses do the math, and realize that with the additional $600 provided by the stimulus bill, it actually works out better for some lower paid workers to lay them off (and presumably rehire later). I wonder if this might explain higher than expected numbers.

That and almost no business can keep paying employees when literally no income is coming in for a month or three.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#430

Post by unethical_ban » Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 6:01 PM UTC

7777fps wrote: post #381

s1artibartfast wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding 3, upper estimates for the 2009 swine flu are north of 500k deaths and the 1918 Spanish flu is 50 million. Flus can be very deadly and the poster obviously did not intend to use the word in a diminutive way. You added that interpretation, knowing it is wrong, and then challenged it.

The whole post was playing down the effects of the current pandemic on society. The whole conclusion was that "a flu won't cause [society to break down]". So yes, the poster was using flu in a diminutive sense. And yes, flu is deadly and a lot worse than a lot of people (who've probably never had flu) realise. But even given that, even recent novel flu strains haven't stressed and shut down the global economy like th…

To respond to "Clayton" in this thread, we did not have much of an option for reacting to the virus once it got to our land. Legally, the federal government cannot shut down the country and order lockdowns, only cities and states can do that. We could have taken the need for testing and equipment preparation more seriously, but we didn't.

In the absence of data around who is sick, who is not, and who is immune, there is no way to slow the spread of the virus during an outbreak except to keep everyone away from everyone else.