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Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

bloomberg.com

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Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#421

Post by fauigerzigerk »

gdubs wrote: post #416
learc83 wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the people on the Diamond Princess there are 36 critical cases + 6 dead. So 42/705 infected, so 6% likely needed to be hospitalized. But, the demographics skewed older than the general population, and there were 3200 people on board in basically a worst case scenario for spread. So 42/3200 is ~1% of a much older population.

Aren’t the hospitalization rates something like ~20% according to the main study that came out of China? Also, the cruise ship cases aren’t all resolved outcomes yet. Edit: link to China study summary below, but including it top-level here as well. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...

>Aren’t the hospitalization rates something like ~20% according to the main study that came out of China?

Yes, but the reason why the Diamond Princess is interesting is that we know exactly how many of them got infected. We don't know that about any other population.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#422

Post by learc83 »

fauigerzigerk wrote: post #418
learc83 wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the people on the Diamond Princess there are 36 critical cases + 6 dead. So 42/705 infected, so 6% likely needed to be hospitalized. But, the demographics skewed older than the general population, and there were 3200 people on board in basically a worst case scenario for spread. So 42/3200 is ~1% of a much older population.

I would like to know how many of the 705 have recovered, how many are still ill, and how many were admitted to hospital. If 42 were critical, that doesn't necessarily mean they were the only ones who needed hospital treatment.

You can look at the counts by date. The majority are past the mean time till hospitalization, and the the number in critical condition hasn't increased in days.

>If 42 were critical, that doesn't necessarily mean they were the only ones who needed hospital treatment.

Percent hospitalized isn't the thing to look at. It's percentage of people who need intensive care or a ventilator that matters.

Many people were hospitalized for observation. Some people received IV fluids. How many of those people were saved by IV fluids vs. just being a nice to have is unknown. But that kind of care can be done in mass tent hospitals or even at home.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#424

Post by derrick_jensen »

mumblemumble wrote: post #208
derrick_jensen wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, within the Constitution there is a clause where the Gold standard is required for all debts and tender ( https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract_Clause ), of which Thomas Jefferson wrote the majority. Even if he didn't say it himself, the sentiment was strong enough between all parties that it was included in the beginning.

It's worth noting here that The Wealth of Nations was published in 1776. Perhaps the people who drafted the US Constitution would have had a chance to read Smith by 1787, but I can't imagine they would have really had a chance to fully digest and internalize the ideas being presented. They were almost certainly working from a firmly mercantilist mindset.

Benjamin Franklin knew Smith personally, and was present at the drafting of the Constitution, so there is at most one degree of separation. I haven't actually read Wealth of Nations myself, but its worth noting that a lot of compromises had to be made on all sides to encourage states to actually join (IIRC the income tax was originally illegal because the initial wording implicitly said that slavery couldn't be taxed out of existence, and this was intentionally worded to encourage southern states to join).

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#425

Post by learc83 »

ericd wrote: post #408
Der_Einzige wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Us GDP to debt ratio is not dramatically worse compared to where it was 30-50 years ago if you just look at how other countries were during this period Boomers are the ones who tell you to be scared of the debt. Same boomers tell me that gold is the best investment

Well, Boomers remember the 70s, and gold has done extremely well vs USD since then.

But not well vs stocks. Gold still hasn't recovered to it's all time high from ~10 years ago.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#426

Post by tasty_freeze »

dageshi wrote: post #406
tasty_freeze wrote: post #389

Pardon my cynicism, but it seems like many of the actions the administration is pushing are simply things they were pushing already and are using this health crisis as cudgel to help get what they want. What we need are lower interest rates! What we need is to limit immigration from Mexico (even though the US has a higher infection rate and there isn't any talk of limiting flights from, say, England). What we need to…

The administration doesn't direct interest rate policy, the FED does, within the context of the FED's mandate a rate drop isn't unexpected during an event like this.

That is how it is supposed to work. Over the past couple of years we have seen the President break with tradition and uses his megaphone to berate and belittle the fed to try and get what he wants. Of course we cannot know if the fed has ignored all that, but by appearances, the president seems to be having an influence.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#427

Post by sev0 »

sev0 wrote: post #292
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> fiscal policy can't really affect the real economy Fiscal policy ( e.g. the government buying tanks) absolutely affects the real economy. The central bank doesn't control fiscal policy. It controls monetary policy. Monetary policy also affects the real economy, just indirectly.

Will it bring back toilet paper at Costco?

I realize this was flippant, but truly, as has been pointed out before, central banking can't help much if factories aren't operating.

Be well, friends.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#428

Post by dustingetz »

codelitt wrote: post #234
aazaa wrote: post #51

For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…

God help us all if our central bank starts taking cues from the Bank of Japan or the ECB and their zombie economies. Our inability to suffer short-term consequences for long-term prosperity is a real issue that we as a country need to figure out how to solve. (Can you solve for human nature?) The fed shouldn't have made cuts in 2019 at the height of the market, we should have let failing banks fail, we need to start…

You can solve for human nature. 3200 years ago we were all in a Prisoners Dilemma stuck at backstab backstab (literally killing each other). And then Moses came down from Mt Sinai and said Thou Shalt Not Kill, and lo, the solution to the dilemma was coordinated by shared principles. I think the solution to today-era social problems will probably look something like that.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#429

Post by throwaway3157 »

rubidium wrote: post #325
throwaway3157 wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It looks like the rates actually went slightly up from a few days ago (though these depends on many variables, but I'm comparing to my local rate that I've been checking for weeks). Might change tomorrow based on today's news.

How do you check your local rate?

I use a website from a local private lender. It requires info about the kind of mortgage you want, the value of the property, your credit score, the zip code, etc. If you don't know where to look, you can start with Zillow's tool: https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-rates/

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#430

Post by takeda »

tasty_freeze wrote: post #389

Pardon my cynicism, but it seems like many of the actions the administration is pushing are simply things they were pushing already and are using this health crisis as cudgel to help get what they want. What we need are lower interest rates! What we need is to limit immigration from Mexico (even though the US has a higher infection rate and there isn't any talk of limiting flights from, say, England). What we need to…

The way things looking it is an attempt of propping things up until November, and it will be harder now.

When our economy was doing well, the rates supposed to be increased, now we have very little room to use that to help with recovery.

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