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No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

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Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#421

Post by nnain »

jasonwen wrote: post #168
simias wrote: post #20

Since the article states "the trigger for the latest sell-off is unclear" I'm really curious if somebody here could venture a guess about the reasons for the sudden drop. The Bitcoin Cash fork seems suspiciously correlated but is it big enough news to cause such a turmoil? Being a cryptocurrency-skeptic I won't pretend that I don't experience a little bit of schadenfreude when I see CC crash, however if I'm trying to…

I discussed the things that happened specifically on November 14th in my Quora answer: https://www.quora.com/Why-did-the-price-of-Bitcoin-plummet-d... It's very very likely because of the Bitcoin Cash fork. It has become a pissing contest between Roger Ver (Bitcoin ABC) and Craig Wright (Bitcoin SV). While Craig trolls and threatens the Bitcoin ABC side by "bleeding them dry" in a hash war. Jihan Wu, founder of Bitma…

It seems to me that the price is dropping due to large players selling off their coins, not because of some hash-war. AFAIK, mining Bitcoins is barely profitable anymore and wouldn't cause such wild jumps (even if this is true).

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#423

Post by andrewla »

na85 wrote: post #416
andrewla wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see it being higher friction per se; spending Bitcoin and most other cryptos is actually pretty easy (modulo fees, which I'll grant is a not great area right now). If you look at Bitcoin more as a cash replacement than a credit card replacement, then it works better, and there really is no "cash" alternative in online systems, which is fine, mostly, for consumers, but not great, mostly, for vendors. Credit ca…

>The biggest problem with adoption of Bitcoin as a spending platform is price volatility Are you sure it's not the fact that nobody seems to be able to securely store bitcoin/other crypto, and that when your bitcoins get stolen there's zero recourse, unlike fiat currency where banks are regulated?

I'm dubious but I can't dismiss this as a reason because all I have is anecdotal evidence; I've never had any stolen from me, and I've just used off-the-shelf wallets, including the gui client (bitcoinqt) at one point. The closest I came was I had some on deposit at MtGox, but I had luckily withdrawn to my personal wallet well before the collapse. I also came close with Bitfinex, but I had to withdraw because they decided not to allow New York residents to hold accounts, so I got lucky.

I also don't know personally anyone who had any stolen either. The generally available wallets are fine; you just get a pass phrase that you write down somewhere. Paper wallets are fine for cold storage (though the barriers are higher for the casual user).

And it's not regulation that saves banks, it's mandatory insurance. If the banks lose your money (through incompetence or theivery) the FDIC (in the US) will pay out (or national organizations through the EU). But this comes with built-in limits; the US maxes out at $250,000 but I don't think the insurance exceeds EUR 100,000 in any country in the EU.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#424

Post by natmaka »

dragonwriter wrote: post #331
natmaka wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is not Bitcoin per se, it is the current state of the real world, where anyone can "buy" and "sell" Bitcoin for legal tender. Bitcoin, in a world where it is the sole currency, has the benefits you quoted.

> The problem here is not Bitcoin per se, it is the current state of the real world If Bitcoin doesn't work in the real world, that's a problem of Bitcoin. > Bitcoin, in a world where it is the sole currency, has the benefits you quoted. If Bitcoin doesn't offer sufficient benefits in the real world as it is without being the sole currency in the world, there's no plausible route to it becoming the sole currency. “My…

It may be a process rather than an abrupt change, just like most evolution.

Adoption/revolution.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#425

Post by natmaka »

dragonwriter wrote: post #337
natmaka wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to this explanation those super powerful individuals "sell" Bitcoins for fiat in order to pay the energy (electricity) they use in order to mine another currency. It is only possible because Bitcoin is not the sole currency. The current financial system faces such battle-ordeals and isn't immune, remember the Black Wednesday.

> According to this explanation those super powerful individuals "sell" Bitcoins for fiat in order to pay the energy (electricity) they use in order to mine another currency. It is only possible because Bitcoin is not the sole currency. Doesn't it? What changes if you take out the fiat intermediary and buy energy (a fungible, near-universal production input and end-consumer product in one) directly and the competitio…

The Bitcoin "value" (the buying power it confers) will be mainly determined by bulk transactions and by factors of high-inertia (changing them radically and fast is impossible), not by investors. One of such last factors is the cost of energy production and storage, another is the efficiency of mining equipment and the associated willing to amortize it. Therefore it will be much more stable, and it seems to be the main problem at hand.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#426

Post by wpietri »

antidesitter wrote: post #378
wpietri wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I probably can. Did you want to ask some specific question? Better, do you you have a way of calculating path-not-taken costs for rampant organized crime that you think might be more effective?

I didn't see any calculation in the parent comment.

Are you asking me to do some sort of calculation? If so, could you spell out what and why?

The point of my original comment was to point out a couple of things we'd have to include in a cost/benefit analysis of KYC/AML regulation, not to actually do a proper analysis, which I would expect to run to hundreds of carefully researched pages.

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#427

Post by coinshakedown »

dd36 wrote: post #187
xiphias2 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With BTC this is just normal volatility. The usual drawdowns that are happening every 1-3 years are about 75% - 95%. If the price of BTC goes under $1000 that will be something new. I can't speak of other coins as they are a very different market (and I'm a Bitcoin maximalist).

Demand will not recover.

This probably won’t age well

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#428

Post by antidesitter »

wpietri wrote: post #426
antidesitter wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't see any calculation in the parent comment.

Are you asking me to do some sort of calculation? If so, could you spell out what and why? The point of my original comment was to point out a couple of things we'd have to include in a cost/benefit analysis of KYC/AML regulation, not to actually do a proper analysis, which I would expect to run to hundreds of carefully researched pages.

Maybe I misread your comment. What did you mean by "Given the US's $20 trillion GDP, that's quite a lot"? What is "that" in this sentence referring to?

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#429

Post by thisisit »

charlesdm wrote: post #389
agumonkey wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know the feeling, but at one point you gotta stop repeating the same thing forever. Bitcoin is not a new thing that will repeat 1000% growth.

You are aware Apple was worth $1tn as a company? $150bn more or less in the grand scheme of things isn't a lot of money, which is about the size of the crypto market. I just don't see banks and institutions (i.e. Nasdaq and Vanguard) building out crypto capabilities to then not use them. They'll market the hell out of them at some point, and the cycle will repeat.

> I just don't see banks and institutions (i.e. Nasdaq and Vanguard) building out crypto capabilities to then not use them

Let me start by saying that I agree there will be a repeat. But, the assertion that companies build some capability to always use them is wrong. What companies did was look into a hype cycle and bought into it as the next "cool thing". After sometime they will forget it even exists. And move on to the next "cool thing".

Re: No End in Sight for Crypto Sell-Off as Bitcoin Breaches $4,250

#430

Post by wpietri »

antidesitter wrote: post #428
wpietri wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you asking me to do some sort of calculation? If so, could you spell out what and why? The point of my original comment was to point out a couple of things we'd have to include in a cost/benefit analysis of KYC/AML regulation, not to actually do a proper analysis, which I would expect to run to hundreds of carefully researched pages.

Maybe I misread your comment. What did you mean by "Given the US's $20 trillion GDP, that's quite a lot"? What is "that" in this sentence referring to?

That "that" refers to the implied product of 16% times $20 trillion. It's meant to provide an order-of-magnitude notion of what rampant organized crime could cost an economy, so that people who had previously read "costs of such bureaucratic monstrosities is in the range of hundreds of billions, whereas the benefit is a few orders of magnitude lower" could more usefully think about what the benefits of crime reduction really are.
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