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NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

theguardian.com

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Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#421

Post by neltnerb »

briandear wrote: post #370
neltnerb wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or the externalities are properly priced and the vast majority of the miles of transport are done by train, which would be cheaper if trucks had to pay for the road maintenance they cause. And cause less pollution (both in ton-miles and from reduced emissions during repaving). And the potatoes end up costing what they cost to get to you? I'm not sure the potato subsidy is worth distorting the transport economics.

Trucks do “pay.” They move goods that are sold and taxed. Until subways start shipping things other than people, they can’t be considered the same as roads. A subway can move people around; roads also move significant goods around. Every single thing in a store has arrived by road for at least some portion of the journey. Farmers aren’t shipping carrots via tram.

I said trains, not subways. I said "majority of miles" not "to the store". The tax is the same on goods shipped by other methods, so you can't count it as somehow balancing out the economic distortions caused by subsidizing trucking infrastructure.

The problem is that non-truck solutions cost more relatively due to government intervention, messing up the market's ability to find more optimal solutions. This one is simple, it doesn't even require you to think about carbon taxes to do the math. It's direct costs, subsidies to a certain technology. Don't pick winners and losers, create an environment where capitalism can function and find the actual best solutions.

Charge trucks for damage they directly cause to roads. Simple.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#422

Post by fjsolwmv »

rayiner wrote: post #227
DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

Nobody expects the NYC subway to "break even or even turn a profit." The subway historically recovers less than 50% of its operating expenditures from fares, compared to 70% for Berlin, 88% for Amsterdam, and over 100% in Tokyo, Taipei, Hong Kong, and Singapore: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farebox_recovery_ratio . MTA is broke because it costs several times as much for MTA to do anything compared to its counterpart…

That's fuzzy accounting. For example tax revenue from NYC subway-generated activity isn't counted (and missing taxes on subway generated windfalls are ignored completely), but Japanese commercial profits near trains is counted. The Subway is a multi billion (trillion?) dollar handout to landowners.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#423

Post by fjsolwmv »

ams6110 wrote: post #338
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that most of the wear and tear on our roads isn't caused by people's cars. People pay much more than their fair share of road maintenance via gas taxes etc than the industries that cause the most damage to the roads. Semis cause 1,400x more wear than cars [1]. [1] https://www.lrrb.org/pdf/201432.pdf

Semis do pay more. They pay many thousands of dollars in road and fuel mileage taxes. Not sure it's 1400x more, but they do pay much more than cars.

Right. So they massively underpay for the costs they incur.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#425

Post by tk75x »

ALittleLight wrote: post #346
gameswithgo wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it is my potatoes in the trucks. I can pay the road tax, or more for potato. doesn't matter.

It does matter though. If the cost of road wear was added to the products that caused them those products would become more expensive and sell less. Suddenly there's an incentive for Potato Inc. and friends to figure out how to transport such that there's less wear etc.

Grow locally, get rid of FarmCorp, reduce the carbon footprint by eliminating the need for transport. Boom, world saved.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#426

Post by notSupplied »

eigenvector wrote: post #379
em3rgent0rdr wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorting that wikipedia table by recovery ratio, I see most of the profitable ones are in East Asia and distance based: Osaka (OMTB) 137%, Hong Kong MTR 124%, Osaka (Hankyu Railway) 123%, Tokyo Metro 119%, London Underground 107%, Singapore (SMRT) 101%, Taipei Metro 100%. Clearly it is possible to have profitable subways, so I don't think we should drop profitability as a goal.

The business entity that owns the subway being profitable is not the same as the subway being profitable. MTR for instance is a real estate developer as well as a subway operator: "As compensation for the cost of building railway networks, the government grants the MTR Corporation land development rights along its rail lines, stations and depots – an increasingly lucrative business in recent years amid a red-hot prop…

It's well understood by the locals that the Hong Kong (and possibly other Asian cities) system reaps most of it's revenue from land rights around/immediately above the stations. In

In Asia transit hubs are often also retail hubs and the commercial rents become profit for the public transit system. This makes perfect sense as the retail value of the nearby land can most obviously be credited to the transit system.

I'd imagine that the problem with the United States is that this real estate was sold early on or was never owned by by the transit system allowing the spillover benefits of transit hubs to be captured by private interests.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#427

Post by notSupplied »

jabl wrote: post #407
prostoalex wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself Not a crazy idea considering how some systems operate in the East - Tokyo, Osaka and Hong Kong systems not only pay for themselves, but churn out profits along the way. Singapore’s MRT is designed to operate at break-even. The trick is to allow the transportation authority to own and manage its own real estate. This way when a ne…

> The trick is to allow the transportation authority to own and manage its own real estate. Well, that seems like a pretty major subsidy. So if a new line or station is built, the government uses eminent domain (or equivalent) to buy the land, and gives it to the transport authority? I mean, it might be better in that it lets the transport authority operate without being dependent on government handouts that can vary…

If by subsidy, you're implying that the transit system is receiving freebies they don't deserve, then I'd have to disagree with you.

Transportation hubs create far more value via their impact on nearby real estate values than from the fares they collect. Asia cities correctly capture the value created by public transit by having major retail hubs above or surrounding subway stations, all of which is paying rent to the transit authority.

Even this is a generous compromise, because the benefit to real estate value really radiates outward to the entire walkable radius, it's just the immediate retail hub that could attribute most of it's value to the station.

So if anything, the problem with the US is that public transit is just a massive economy handout to private landowners, leaving just the scraps (the fares) to the transit authority.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#428

Post by slx26 »

tokyodude wrote: post #411
DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

Japan is doing pretty well I believe because they privatized the transportation system and set up the incentives so the better the transportation does the more profit the transportation company makes. The Tokyu Corporation (one of the 10 or so companies running trains in Tokyo) is currently building several 20 to 40 story buildings in Shibuya, one of which Google Japan will move into next September. They make money r…

Can you (or anyone else who knows and reads this) explain a bit more about those incentives?

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#429

Post by darksaints »

eigenvector wrote: post #379
em3rgent0rdr wrote: post #321

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorting that wikipedia table by recovery ratio, I see most of the profitable ones are in East Asia and distance based: Osaka (OMTB) 137%, Hong Kong MTR 124%, Osaka (Hankyu Railway) 123%, Tokyo Metro 119%, London Underground 107%, Singapore (SMRT) 101%, Taipei Metro 100%. Clearly it is possible to have profitable subways, so I don't think we should drop profitability as a goal.

The business entity that owns the subway being profitable is not the same as the subway being profitable. MTR for instance is a real estate developer as well as a subway operator: "As compensation for the cost of building railway networks, the government grants the MTR Corporation land development rights along its rail lines, stations and depots – an increasingly lucrative business in recent years amid a red-hot prop…

Farebox recovery ratio is not a measure of net profit, it is a measure of operating profit specifically for transit assets, with only fares counting as revenues. In other words, the MTR's subway lines are profitable entirely by themselves. The real estate profits are just a cherry on top.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#430

Post by francisofascii »

jimmy1 wrote: post #306
TheSoftwareGuy wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's likely referring to how (some) people enjoy driving because of the sense of freedom & control it gives them. But he is asserting that this is just an illusion. Honestly, I feel the same way, since most time I spend driving I spend sitting in traffic or something.

There are few things I get more enjoyment out of than driving a car that corners well through a beautiful mountainous road like the Blue Ridge Parkway through the Appalachian, or up through Yosemite from Fresno. When I need to clear my head, I still hop in the car and go for a drive with music. Not also afraid to admit -- I've had some of my most cathartic, emotional-cleansing crys in the vehicle by myself. In this d…

Sounds like your typical car commercial. I wish cars were only used for these types of infrequent trips, rather than for nearly all of one's transportation.
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