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Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

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Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#421

Btw linked accident was for a Model S with Tesla autopilot 1. Can tell because no camera on silver blinker assembly. They're now on 2.5.

Can autopilot v1 cars be upgraded to v2.5? I'm assuming since you mentioned a camera it's not just software.

No, Elon has tweeted a few times that it would be too extensive of an upgrade process.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/789007996038721536?lang=...

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#422

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From https://www.tesla.com/autopilot : "All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver" Why do we keep referring to something that we understand should require human supervision as "auto"? Stop the marketing buzzfeed and let's be real.

That sentence is just saying that the _hardware_ (not the software) is sufficient for "full self-driving capability". The current _software_ doesn't support that. The point being that in the future the car _could_ get "full self-driving capability" via a software update. In contrast, a car that doesn't have the necessary hardware will never be fully self-driving even if we do develop the necessary software to accompl…

Wow! I'm glad you pointed that out. It was subtle enough I didn't catch it. But perhaps we should consider this type of wording a fallacy, because with that level of weasel-wording, almost anything is possible! The catch is that it presupposes a non-existent piece of information, the software. And we don't know if that software will ever - or can ever - exist.

Misleading examples of the genre:

My cell phone has the right hardware to cure cancer! I just don't have the right app.

The dumbest student in my class has a good enough brain to verify the Higgs-Boson particle. He just doesn't know how.

This mill and pile of steel can make the safest bridge in the world. It just hasn't been designed yet.

Your shopping cart full of food could be used to make a healthy, delicious meal. All you need is a recipe that no one knows.

Baby, I can satisfy your needs up and down as well as any other person. I just have to... well... learn how to satisfy your needs!

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could say the same for trains though - they follow a track in a similar sense to Tesla's autopilot. Someone could perform a "prank" by putting something on the track in order to derail a train. How often do you see that happen? Painting a line on the road is obviously easier to do, and could also happen by accident, but I think the chances of any danger are extremely low. Hopefully when we start removing the driv…

There’s a theory out there that a penny on a rail can derail a train. You wouldn’t think people would do such a thing, with such disastrous consequences... but they do. Thousands of times a year. Actually derailing a train takes serious effort; but people still try constantly. Derailing a Tesla seems somewhat easier, so I guess we’ll see.

On youtube there are old black and white films produced to show the result of rail sabatouge. Even with a foot cut from the track the train did not derail. Quite impressive. I used to flatten coins as a kid all the time by leaving them on the tracks.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#424

Tesla claimed[1] that: > Our data shows that Tesla owners have driven this same stretch of highway with Autopilot engaged roughly 85,000 times since Autopilot was first rolled out in 2015 and roughly 20,000 times since just the beginning of the year, and there has never been an accident that we know of. There are over 200 successful Autopilot trips per day on this exact stretch of road. Which might be technically tru…

It took people a day to reproduce the crash and end up in a near-collision:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QCF8tVqM3I

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#425

Self driving cars have absolutely no business being any road/lanes that is not purposely made/reserved for self driving cars. Period. Self driving cars need an ecosystem made for self driving cars. It's frankly madness to think otherwise.

Absolutely. It shouldn't even be that hard, with the billions that are being thrown at the tech. They should be spending time and money to upgrade specific highways and certify specific routes as "safe for automation", rather than trying to test their cars on the entire North American road network with millions of crazy edge cases. Over time, these certified routes will grow into their own network.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#426
post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars still impose a huge environmental cost since they need to be manufactured in the first place. And the batteries need rare earths which are, well, rare. While there is ongoing research into novel types of batteries made from more common materials, I wouldn't be surprised if the next war is about lithium instead of oil.

Agree, I am not convinced it is a net benefit for the overall environment. Plus they will consume more energy because of inefficiencies in transport and storage. But there is still an immense environmental benefit: they will pollute in places (industrial areas, mines) that are not places where people live (big cities). So the population will benefit a lot from moving where the pollution takes place. And it's not just…

> Plus they will consume more energy because of inefficiencies in transport and storage.

Is that so? The larger engines in fossil power plants are more efficient than a fleet of small ICEs, but I don't know how this added efficiency compares against those inefficiencies along the way that you mentioned (and of course, a complete picture also needs to take into account the energy cost of distributing gas to cars).

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what amazes me is that Tesla autopilot apparently won't swerve or stop when it sees an unmoving object straight ahead. It won't even brake unless the thing in front looks like the back end of a car or truck. Even then, if it's stationary, it may still get hit. It won't swerve, ever; it has no logic for that. Four times that we know of, a Tesla has plowed into a vehicle partly blocking a lane. Putting something on…

Will it brake for pedestrians?

If I was walking, I sure would not trust it to. But their feature is for the highway, where peds are not expected. I am sure they expect to shift blame by that reasoning.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#428

I have now talked with two people who have autopilot in their model S's and both said the problem with autopilot is that it is "too good". Specifically it works completely correctly like 80 - 90% of the time and as a result, if you use it a lot, you start to expect it to be working and not fail. If it beeps then to tell you to take over, you have to mentally get back into the situational awareness of the road and the…

As someone with a car that has a much weaker system (ProPilot), I can see where that would be a problem. Its not really tempting to let ProPilot do it on its on, as it regularly wants to take exit ramps and occasionally pushes towards the middle of the road too much.

It seems like AutoPilot users take their hands off the wheel regularly, and I just don't see how that is safe with this type of system.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#429

I have now talked with two people who have autopilot in their model S's and both said the problem with autopilot is that it is "too good". Specifically it works completely correctly like 80 - 90% of the time and as a result, if you use it a lot, you start to expect it to be working and not fail. If it beeps then to tell you to take over, you have to mentally get back into the situational awareness of the road and the…

My Subaru has a "lane assist" feature which helps keep you in your lane while driving. It only gives a little bit of pressure in the direction you should be moving to help you out and if you don't do anything the car will still move out of the current lane. This certainly helps me stay more aware as I can't ever rely on the car to fully steer, but if my concentration lacks during a turn on the freeway I get a reminde…

I use the Subaru adaptive cruise control quite a bit. It turns off when it is unable to see well enough, which usually only happens in scenarios where I shouldn't be driving and can't see (like during a blizzard).

Human+automation is very powerful! However, I don't think we are far from self-driving beating human alone.

Re: Tesla crash in September showed similarities to fatal Mountain View accident

#430

I'm going to wait five to ten years before I get my robot car. Let all those early adopters be the guinea pigs we need to reach that level of robot cars being safer then human drivers. It seems tons of upper middle class to wealthy people are lining up to pay dearly with their wallets and lives to be a billionaire's crash test dummy.

Aren't we all the crash test dummies if we're sharing the road with them?
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