Tesla Roadster

Hmmmmm. Tesla seems on the edge of imploding, financially.

Then they announce this. (With reservations starting at $200k.)

I wouldn't put retirement money on that one.

No side view mirrors! That helps tremendously with aerodynamics. I wonder if they used cameras and displays. Even the new Ford GT has mirrors.

I would say vision is comparable to Jobs, but execution— not yet. The problem is a lack of focus and a lot of distraction with big public announcements before actually figuring out how to ship. Jobs (and Cook’s) advantage over Musk in the Tesla context is that they considered the supply chain as vital as the flash and sparkle. Supply chain isn’t sexy but it’s essential. Tesla’s supply chain is fragile to say the least and should be focused upon. Musk’s execution isn’t there yet. Jobs created/launched an iPad and it shipped millions. Waiting times for an iPhone rarely have exceeded a few weeks because their supply chain is solid. But getting a replacement fender for a Model S? Good luck with that.

If I were a Tesla investor, the only thing I would care about is supply chain efficiency. We know Tesla can innovate and titilate — but can they ship?

My advice to Musk would be: announce things after you can ship them reliably and at scale. Less sparkle more shipping. Prove you can ship the 3, then I might be confident you can ship a truck.

I really like Musk and Tesla, but there is a hell of a lot more involved with changing the world than creating essentially limited edition concept cars — you actually have to ship. Based on the 3, it’s clear that there are some execution issues that still need solving.

> F1 tires are nothing like road tires.

Agreed, but they don't need to be. Remember, the magic number here is ~1.4G, for a 1.9s 0-60. The Pilot Sport Cup 2 – a track-friendly R-compound tire used in the webcast car and in the videos – can pull close to that on a skidpad (i.e. less than optimal conditions), meaning the grip is there.

> I think it's straining credulity to believe that an electronic traction control system is going to outperform them to such a huge degree.

Launch control and traction control can make several tenths of seconds of difference, which is critical when you're talking about sub-2s times. Also, traction control can keep the car on the cusp of slip the entire run to 60MPH, which is critical in a car that has a completely flat torque curve and probably enough torque to break the wheels loose at any speed (which is not true for F1 cars).

I also suspect that the Roadster has active damping – another technology disallowed in F1 – meaning that the duration of contact with the road can be maximized. This is important if the road surface isn't glassy-smooth.

> This car also looks to weigh around double what an F1 car will weigh

That doesn't help it at all in cornering, but in a straight line, the increased weight of the car will help it launch even better since it'll increase the traction on the drive wheels (equivalent to downforce at speed).

> Gear changes: F1 gear changes take about 8 milliseconds. A road-going automatic gearbox is definitely not going to beat this.

There's no gearbox to speak of; the wheels are direct-drive. To be fair, this won't contribute significantly to faster 0-60 times, but the gearbox exists to compensate for some less-than-ideal characteristics of an ICE, namely uneven power delivery and physical limitations on peak RPMs. An electric motor has none of these problems.

> Seriously, no one is concerned that Tesla is announcing, not one, but two new products, while they are failing to deliver on all three they are currently producing (in terms of production ramp-up)?

I dunno man, every time before I've said "Tesla/SpaceX can't possibly do that", they've succeeded in doing it (albeit usually a year or so behind schedule) so I've given up trying to tell them what they can't do.