The Refragmentation • Hacker News Board

Re: The Refragmentation

#421

Post by three14 » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 8:24 PM UTC

zanny wrote: post #416

three14 wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of this really answers the question. Of course technology eliminates jobs. This has been happening since before Ford was founded and before all those automotive jobs were originally created . See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite for instance. The question isn't whether specific jobs are being destroyed, but rather whether all unskilled jobs are being destroyed, and none of those links even begin to give any…

By definition of unskilled labor you imply only work done by physical action. If you really don't think you cannot replace the human arm with a machine, you haven't been paying attention for two centuries. How is that even a question? We could replace all unskilled work today , if all you are doing is removing mechanical components of labor. Remember, unskilled labor is "work to be done without training or certificat…

Certification is a red herring; assembly line workers have skills that I lack. I'm really only interested in jobs of that could be filled by the people who used to work in the Rust Belt, whatever you actually want to call that type of employment.

Thought experiment: let's say a trend starts for everyone earning 6 figures in Silicon Valley to hire a butler and a cook. How many jobs would be created? How many have recently been destroyed? How long before robots are as good a substitute for human butlers as the robot in The Jetsons?

Re: The Refragmentation

#422

Post by mhaymo » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 8:27 PM UTC

quadrangle wrote: post #412

mhaymo wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So the focus on "inequality" is a focus on large wealth at the expense of thinking about poverty, to the degree that you call 6-figure earners "people at the bottom". I'm still not convinced that a "supermajority" of innovation does not involve the very rich. Much innovation today comes from companies like Google, Apple, SpaceX, lead by very wealthy leaders. Even if you were right, the point remains that limiting the…

You're confusing causation and correlation even if your premise is valid (which is totally questionable). First, Google and Apple have nothing to do with personal wealth, they are corporations. The fact that have lots of corporate wealth means they have resources to put into innovation. They can do that completely independently of whether they pay absurd salaries or stock-dividends. Corporations can profit off their…

> First, Google and Apple have nothing to do with personal wealth, they are corporations.

When Steve Jobs returned to Apple, he made it far more productive, and he was personally paid to do so. If his personal wealth was capped he may not have found it worthwhile to do this work that he was clearly exceptionally qualified for.

> Maybe these are people who would be innovative no matter what and our system happens to reward that with riches.

You can only believe this if you believe that people (or just "innovative people") are not even slightly motivated by money, which is clearly absurd. I certainly believe that people are motivated by many things besides money, however at the end of the day money is what gets you many of the things you want. I know that I personally am much happier to work hard when I know I will be amply rewarded.

Re: The Refragmentation

#423

Post by prostoalex » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 8:35 PM UTC

Pyxl101 wrote: post #378

prostoalex wrote: post #324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With so many exemptions to minimum wage laws (self-employed are exempted, family-owned businesses are exempted, waiters are exempted unless their tipping income does not put them over minimum, anybody working under 1099 is exempted) the comparisons become a bit muddled - a minimum wage worker who lost his position and decided to get some moving gigs or drive a few hours for Uber/Lyft certainly has "a job" for survey…

Waiters and tipped employees are not exempt from minimum wage. They must be paid a wage greater than or equal to minimum wage for every hour they work. Tips can take that wage above minimum, but an absence of tips cannot drop their wage below. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipped_wage_in_the_United_St...

I'm aware of the mechanics, I am questioning the reasoning behind introduction of a special class of income. What's the economical argument against letting them earn minimum wage and tips?

Re: The Refragmentation

#424

Post by r2dnb » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 8:54 PM UTC

lsc wrote: post #419

r2dnb wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, but PG doesn't consider selling your time as starting a company, you're not talking about the same thing

right, but running a company requires a rather different skillset from working for someone else as a programmer. It's a different job. My point is just that as a full timer at a big company, you are at the top end of "market rate" for programmers. If you start your own company, you are on the 'business person' payscale, which is a rather different thing.

Your point makes sense, however look :

You develop a software and are the PM / product lead. You get paid 8 months, while your client makes $8,000 per month during the next 5 years. This is the market rate.

The market PG refers to is not the labour market but the consumer market where the metric used is not time but value.

Re: The Refragmentation

#425

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 8:57 PM UTC

simon_ wrote: post #420

anon1385 wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked at the linked document. The figures are as follows (all in thousands): 14,157 units below the poverty line (12.7% of all units) 5,566 of those Owner occupied (39.3%) 3,191 of those owned "free and clear" (22%) So his 45% claim isn't even true to start with. It falls to 22% when you consider full ownership. Seeing yummyfajitas make factually incorrect claims is disappointing but not surprising.

Sigh, it is hard for me to imagine that this comment was made in good faith. First of all, owning "free and clear" is hardly the expected meaning of ownership in the context of cars or especially houses in the US. I have a mortgage and I still say I own my house. When I told friends I was buying my house, I expect >90% of them assumed I was getting a mortgage. The government reported "homeownership rate" certainly do…

[deleted]

Re: The Refragmentation

#426

Post by dinkumthinkum » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 9:14 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #276

yummyfajitas wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in your ideal world, Paul Krugman is banned from writing editorials? John Stewart can no longer discuss contemporary politics? And if a citizen notices that all the politicians are lying, he needs to just shut up about it?

> And if a citizen notices that all the politicians are lying, he needs to just shut up about it? Honestly, does it even matter? Everybody knows all politicians are liars. It's common knowledge; it's beyond being a trope and basically a synonym. But then somehow a large part of the population still cares about what politicians have to say. They know that the politician they oppose is full of shit, and yet they feel o…

You act as if the problem is solely because of the politicians. In a large democracy such as the United States, many people are unfortunately simple minded and politicians that regular espouse nuance and contemplation in their campaigns are rarely successful, so the people are really getting the sort of discourse they want.

Re: The Refragmentation

#427

Post by lsc » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 9:27 PM UTC

r2dnb wrote: post #424

lsc wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

right, but running a company requires a rather different skillset from working for someone else as a programmer. It's a different job. My point is just that as a full timer at a big company, you are at the top end of "market rate" for programmers. If you start your own company, you are on the 'business person' payscale, which is a rather different thing.

Your point makes sense, however look : You develop a software and are the PM / product lead. You get paid 8 months, while your client makes $8,000 per month during the next 5 years. This is the market rate. The market PG refers to is not the labour market but the consumer market where the metric used is not time but value.

Yeah, but "value" as measured by the market is a funny thing... you can write an advanced compiler and it will generate "zero value" as far as the market is concerned, because all the good compilers are open source, or you can setup a couple jabber servers, and the market values you at billions.

I mean, I use scare quotes to convey my scorn, but the point here is that agree with it or not, the market doesn't value technical skills very highly.

Sure, as a modern business person, you need to have some technical skills; but technical skills alone? technical skills alone gets you one of those rent-a-coder jobs.

Most of this "value" is... well, if I understood business well enough to tell you why a couple of jabber servers was worth Billions of dollars, I'd be making a lot more money than I am.

but my point is just that a lot of that "value" to the end customer is something that happens between a business person and the customer; it's something that the technical people are not very involved in.

Re: The Refragmentation

#428

Post by pjmorris » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 9:42 PM UTC

rdiddly wrote: post #284

I'm old too, and I think the issue is quite a bit simpler than this rather sprawling essay makes out. The "two forces" (WWII and large corporations) that are now receding in memory, that supposedly used to push us all together, were actually both manifestations of a single force, which is the "growth phase" of fossil-fuel energy production. This has been a boon to economies the world over for the past 100, 150 years…

I think you've got a point, but then I'm old too. I found reading Arthur C. Clarke's 'Profiles of the Future' early on, and Yergin's 'The Prize' later on to be valuable in reasoning about energy, and found 'The Oil Drum' [1] fascinating during its run. But I know I'm an energy dilettante... what resources would you recommend for understanding history, the present, and our future needs?

[1] http://www.theoildrum.com/

Re: The Refragmentation

#429

Post by r2dnb » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 9:42 PM UTC

lsc wrote: post #427

r2dnb wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your point makes sense, however look : You develop a software and are the PM / product lead. You get paid 8 months, while your client makes $8,000 per month during the next 5 years. This is the market rate. The market PG refers to is not the labour market but the consumer market where the metric used is not time but value.

Yeah, but "value" as measured by the market is a funny thing... you can write an advanced compiler and it will generate "zero value" as far as the market is concerned, because all the good compilers are open source, or you can setup a couple jabber servers, and the market values you at billions. I mean, I use scare quotes to convey my scorn, but the point here is that agree with it or not, the market doesn't value te…

Yes you got it all, now the next logical step is : "Stop being a technical person only", this is what PG is saying.

My advice is keep doing your stuff, but aggressively start building your product-based business on the side.

I encourage you to bookmark my blog and read the categories : "Startups", and "Software Engineering" (coming very soon) for free and valuable information. In 2016, there'll be new essays almost daily.

http://read.reddy.today

Re: The Refragmentation

#430

Post by lsc » Sun, Jan 03, 2016, 9:53 PM UTC

r2dnb wrote: post #429

lsc wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but "value" as measured by the market is a funny thing... you can write an advanced compiler and it will generate "zero value" as far as the market is concerned, because all the good compilers are open source, or you can setup a couple jabber servers, and the market values you at billions. I mean, I use scare quotes to convey my scorn, but the point here is that agree with it or not, the market doesn't value te…

Yes you got it all, now the next logical step is : "Stop being a technical person only", this is what PG is saying. My advice is keep doing your stuff, but aggressively start building your product-based business on the side. I encourage you to bookmark my blog and read the categories : "Startups", and "Software Engineering" (coming very soon) for free and valuable information. In 2016, there'll be new essays almost d…

>My advice is keep doing your stuff, but aggressively start building your product-based business on the side.

I've been trying to do that for the last decade. I apparently have what it takes to do rather better than rent-a-coder, but my business skills aren't nearly enough to be "opportunity cost profitable" - I can make rent, but I'm not paying myself nearly what one of the local big companies would. Hell, right now I'm contracting to one of the big companies, and spending the money getting my own company back up to snuff. (and again, it's an education. Contractors, if you do the math, make about what 'base salary' would be for the position as an employee. A decade ago, this was also true... the difference being that a decade ago, base salary was pretty much total comp. These days, bonuses and regular stock grants are the norm and make up a large part of compensation. And if you are a contractor? you don't see that money... either it goes to the middleman or contractor bill rates haven't risen with full time compensation. Either way, it's another example of how technical people get paid worse the closer they are to a "free market")

From my observations? (and always consider "you shall know him by his fruits" when listening for advice; People who aren't successful, obviously, don't know how to become successful. So look at successful people, and look at what they did not what they say) From my observations, a lot of business is like getting a $BIGCO job. A whole lot of it is who you know, not what you can do.

My next project, actually, is to get myself into an elite college. Now I don't know if I can pull it off, I'm not saying it's going to be easy... but if I want to get rich, as far as I can tell, the contacts one acquires at an elite college are far more valuable than any amount of actual skill or effort I put into an actual product-based business.

edit: re-reading, I sound kinda bitter, and I'm not, or I shouldn't be. I have a comfortable place in this economic system; I'm certainly not at the top, but I'm pretty far from the bottom. I'd probably be doing worse in almost any system that most people would consider "fair"

Further, if I really was great? or, for that matter, if I hadn't made two or three of the mistakes that I made, I would very likely have become rich off of my own product business. You can succeed that way; I was close enough to see the possibility. But the point is that I did not. I wasn't good enough, while I am good enough to get a pretty cushy $BIGCO job.