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OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#411

Post by zipy124 »

pjc50 wrote: post #253
zipy124 wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

P/E is not an indicator of available to deployed capital. Just in the EU alone there is about €12 trillion in bank deposits which could be invested. There is no lack of liquid capital to be invested.

Basel capital rules are supposed to mitigate against the insane idea of banks deploying all their capital in a single high risk stock. If you think you can get all the _public_ to pull their short term bank deposits into stock .. well, (a) you've not met the Germans, and (b) that is how the economy of Albania collapsed in a pyramid scheme.

I'm not suggesting the banks invest. But that individuals could withdraw money to invest. All I am saying is there is still lots of 'dry powder' left in the financial system. There is no shortage of liquid cash to invest, only places to put it.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#412

Post by gmerc »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #384
mrandish wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically, for-profit Chinese companies have released far more Open AI than OpenAI. And they may be a key reason the for-profit OpenAI remains non-profitable. It's worth noting I suspect a key reason Chinese companies are doing this is, in part, tacit encouragement and logistical enablement from the Chinese government. Playing spoiler by nerfing the valuations of over-inflated U.S. AI leaders is a decent strategy gi…

They don't need to profit when they have a government backstop and a nationstate strategy in place. China beating America in AI isn't just about who gets to generate the images/videos of cats.

They don’t have the government as backstop, deepseek is a very successful quant and benefits from less extraction on power and GPUs just like american companies benefit from fossil subsidies

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#414

Post by zug_zug »

dirasieb wrote: post #353
ReptileMan wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is worse than GPT5.5 ... but is so cheap that it doesn't really matter.

cheap for whom? local hardware + electricity bills don’t even begin to get close to frontier model subscription even in price

Well the API is over 10x cheaper, so I find it’s much more efficient for personal projects

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#415

Post by beernet »

0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #211
chvid wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.

I still think NVIDIA is a bad bet--where is their moat in the long term? Doesn't the sort of work NVIDIA engineers do look vulnerable to AI-assisted automation? NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right?

Only on HN will people doubt the moat of a company with >5T market cap at an annualized revenue of 400B with YoY growth close to 100%. Yes, bubbles gonna bubble, but what?

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#417

Post by gopher_space »

cultofmetatron wrote: post #257
wg0 wrote: post #99

If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"

> Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. good luck getting a machine that can run its specs though. Even flash is goign to require ponying up 5-10 grand to run the minimal specs for it. The vast majority of people will find their machine falls behind as tech progresses long before they get a return on that investment. That said,…

I've been taking the opposite approach by playing around with different hardware bottlenecks, and the models I can run on base-level (e.g. 1050 ti, i5-7th) machines are all useful for specific tasks if I deconstruct a process far enough.

If you know exactly what you want and when you need the results, calculating a hardware floor becomes deterministic. If you don't need the results right away, or if you're comfortable gluing together results yourself, pretty much any box released in the past decade can be doing work for you.

For a quick experiment grab a few images and a one-line prompt e.g. "describe these pictures", and bounce that set off every model/quant you can reach. If you record quality, rate, and cost of each request there might be regions of

`"good enough", "good enough", "electricity + sweat"`

in the resulting spreadsheet. And this is multimodal. Single-mode classification is dirt cheap.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#418

Post by BoorishBears »

wg0 wrote: post #99

If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"

If you're an investor, you should read up on what's happening to those of us who need to rent 8xB200 to run a model like DSV4.

Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon

#420

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

beernet wrote: post #415
0xDEAFBEAD wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think NVIDIA is a bad bet--where is their moat in the long term? Doesn't the sort of work NVIDIA engineers do look vulnerable to AI-assisted automation? NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right?

Only on HN will people doubt the moat of a company with >5T market cap at an annualized revenue of 400B with YoY growth close to 100%. Yes, bubbles gonna bubble, but what?

Annualized revenue and YoY growth have little to do with long-term moat width
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