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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#411
post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not everybody thinks it's nonsensical. Here's a different take: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If_Anyone_Builds_It,_Everyone_...

Yes, nonsensical people like EY don’t think it’s nonsensical.

Researches at top AI labs don't consider EY to be a kook even though they may not necessarily agree. EY concepts/terminology appear in Anthropic safety papers. Geoffrey Hinton takes him quite seriously and mentions him in his interviews.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is undermining its own (and everyone else's) economy just fine, no imaginary assistance from China necessary. The role of the US was always to purchase cheap Chinese hardware, slap some modestly better software on top of it and the rest of the world happily would pay for that as a whole package. But with the US increasingly becoming isolationist, the rest of the world is starting to wonder why do we need the U…

I’m not American, sir. But I disagree with your analysis. I think you’re looking back over too short a timescale.

Trivialise it all you want, but the world is vastly different from what it was at the beginning of 2025 and I don't think you or anyone else can deny that in any way.

What happens next remains to be written, but so far this new order seems to be leaning heavily towards China and to a lesser extent the EU. Not because of anything those two have or have not done, but because of what has up-until-that-point been widely considered to be world's number one superpower losing its damn mind. I don't even have to come up with a list of examples to prove my point, we both have pretty much the same list in our minds already.

Instead, I'll just quote the President of the United States from a little over 24h ago:

> I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody.

AI is just another in a series of slaps to everyone's faces by the US. If it has some legitimate long-term use (which according to me is still an open question, although to many others it is not), thank god the US does not have as significant of a moat as necessary to fully control it, as the crux of it is easily replicable (albeit expensive).

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know or care much about the specific details but the article was written in 2025. Carriers run deals and give away iPhones or close enough to free or cheap that quibbling about the details is irrelevant. If you think the iPhone is a status symbol you’re just wrong.

I'm not the one arguing iPhones are only status symbols. If anything, if I only had the money to spend on a single computing device there's a good chance I'd go for an iPhone due to excellent durability, typically long support timelines, lots of extremely cheap accessories available, high chance of low cost serviceability compared to other devices. There's also a pretty good used marketplace for such devices so picki…

I am arguing they’re not status symbols and using how cheaply available they are as evidence that they’re not. Anyone can get one, some companies run free promotions, some do delayed interest programs, some amortize the price over a 2-year time period. Who cares? The details here weren’t important. Apparently Verizon ran some promo in the past and may again in the future giving away iPhones. Why be so argumentative over something so stupid? Not only are you actually wrong here, you’re arguing over the irrelevant details.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#415

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Capital is not the means of production. Capital is capital. If I have a few million dollars in my bank account I don’t all of a sudden have a factory. Remember from economics class you need capital, labor, and the means of production. Capital inflows are different from manufacturing outflows. The US has historically imported capital which is part of why we have such a large trade imbalance. I’d encourage you to do so…

> I have a few million dollars in my bank account I don’t all of a sudden have a factory. No but money only has value because of a product of the human labor and production capacity it refers to. Money is not capital, it is a reference to/legal coercion of capital > We compete hard and fast all day everyday Sir have you ever been to the us? Lmao. We are only competitive in the industry of white collar work (financial…

> No but money only has value because of a product of the human labor and production capacity it refers to. Money is not capital, it is a reference to/legal coercion of capital

These are just strings of words without meaning or importance.

> Sir have you ever been to the us? Lmao. We are only competitive in the industry of white collar work (financial/artisanal services), an industry that capital is actively gutting

Yes, I live here. Why are you posting obviously untrue and asinine statements like this? Go look at the Fortune 500. There ya go. What other evidence do you need? And not only are you writing dumb things here, your original post was wrong too! Please get off of social media or whatever doomscrolling news you are partaking in because it is bad for your health and perception of reality. The United States by any measure, as a matter of indisputable fact, a highly competitive and dynamic economy across pretty much all sectors. This is not up for debate.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's an example from 2025 with a major US carrier - Verizon: https://tech.yahoo.com/phones/deals/articles/want-free-iphon... They run various schemes like this all the time, you can also trade in your existing phone a lot of times for pretty favorable terms. I've traded in phones that were a few years old and gotten $1000+ for them, especially when switching providers.

That's not free except at point of sale.

It’s free enough that my point stands and I’m close-minded to any further discussion about it.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much would one have to invest in hardware to feasibly run a usefully large Kimi K2.6?

There's no set-in-stone answer to these kinds of questions, it all depends what "useful" performance means to you.

Yeah, I know. Was just throwing it out to see what folks would say based on their idea of useful.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#418

The winner in the long term will be the one that will deliver the best performance and low-memory ratio for local models. Anthropic, OpenAI and Mistral are just companies that are making money right now (still not profitable), but will lost their tractions and values in the long term. However, I am more appealing to see how OpenCode Go subscriptions will go in the future: cheaper than big techs, more tokens, and they…

Not training on data is a con for me not a pro. The reason Claude is so good is RL training from users' chat histories and use cases. The era of pure public data training is over, as everyone has access to this data yet only a few are frontier models.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Now those aren't really "frontier models" now, are they.

They are on the frontier of local models, where the game is often to get the best bang for the buck. You can always scale model size and compute (Mythos, GPT Pro, Gemini DeepThink) to reach better outcomes, but that's not a very interesting strategy.

> They are on the frontier of local models

That's not what anyone means when they say frontier models, don't change the definition. It's almost as bad as open weight being subsumed by open source when it comes to local models.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Happy to if you have any pointers. My original point is that the US kills millions of people outside of its borders, something China most definitely does not. The number is over 12 million post-WWII: https://www.worldfuturefund.org/Reports/Imperialism/usmurder...

Replace the U.S. with another world power. Would it be better or worse? Its always easy to criticize the power that is in place and treat them as if they are to blame for all the ills of the world. It is easy to criticize when you are the nation that is asked to help provide international security for commerce on the high seas. But exchange another nation in the U.S.'s place, and I guarantee you most would make simil…

No one asked the US to kill millions of Koreans, Vietnamese, Iraqis, Afghans… well maybe Israel for those last two, but they’re a terrorist entity.
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