Earlier quoted context omitted.
MAD If they strike desalination plants, Israel/us can do the same … really mass casualty event could follow. And they might, at some point the Iranian gov might feel desperate enough to be like “fuck it, we have nothing to lose” … Dubai could end up with a lot more graves. Almost all of their water comes from these plants, and humans can’t survive without water for more than 3 days … There are reserves/stores sure, b…
Israel already attacked desalination plants. Iran already responded by doing the same to the surrounding countries.
Missile defense is NP-complete
411–420 of 446 posts
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#412Earlier quoted context omitted.
Especially when they're optimizing for afterlife.
The fact that many Iranian officials optimize stealing millions from the state, means they aren't optimizing for the afterlife
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#413Earlier quoted context omitted.
Decoys are greatly over-rated in ballistic missile systems. Sensors are so good at discriminating decoys from warheads that decoys are largely ineffective and have been for decades. This has borne out in Ukraine. A decoy sufficiently sophisticated to look real to good sensors will have weight and characteristics that approach that of a real warhead, at which point you might as well add another warhead. Decoys only ma…
I would like to understand this more. How are decoys discriminated? The acceleration due to gravity is the same for all. Radar reflectance could be manipulated. Drag and lift perhaps, but can't those be matched with the real thing ? What is it that gives up a decoy as a decoy ? Yes I can distinguish a falling feather from a falling lead-shot. The more interesting questions is can one not make a featherweight that fal…
Against this type of terminal guidance, a decoy must have the same shape, size, orientation, and spectral signature of a warhead, and maintain these properties while being ablated. As a matter of engineering, a decoy with these properties will necessarily have mass and volume costs that approach that of a warhead, with none of the benefits of a warhead.
From a weapon design perspective, effective decoys significantly reduce the range of the missiles they are attached to. That is not a tradeoff any weapon designers are willing to make because range is one of the most critical attributes of an effective weapon.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#414I spent some time reconstructing the current US missile defense interceptor numbers. This was done from open source DoD data, CSIS P-21 procurement exhibits, and CRS reports, that are are in depth, non partisan, objective policy analyses written by experts at the Congressional Research Service (CRS) specifically for U.S. Congress members. Also used Lockheed/RTX financial disclosures. The numbers are pretty bad… Way w…
Any time that I've raised this issue of unsufficient stockpiles and poor preparadness for a major conflict for about a year now on HN and the response is pretty poor and my comments are often downvoted and/or ignored.[0][1][2][3]
There doesn't seem to be a way out of this without a substantial and undeniable US military loss that wakens people to the severely dysfunctional state of military stockpiles and planning, but with that said I'm highly skeptical that this incarnation of America can rise to the occasion like previous generations did in WW1 and WW2.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42391816 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43693330 [2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44812177 [3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45054414
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#415Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would like to understand this more. How are decoys discriminated? The acceleration due to gravity is the same for all. Radar reflectance could be manipulated. Drag and lift perhaps, but can't those be matched with the real thing ? What is it that gives up a decoy as a decoy ? Yes I can distinguish a falling feather from a falling lead-shot. The more interesting questions is can one not make a featherweight that fal…
The terminal guidance systems use broad-spectrum imagers to identify warheads and select their point of impact. Radar is only used to point them in the general direction. Against this type of terminal guidance, a decoy must have the same shape, size, orientation, and spectral signature of a warhead, and maintain these properties while being ablated. As a matter of engineering, a decoy with these properties will neces…
Appreciate your reply.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#416Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think a big difference is that asymmetry has grown a lot: The modern drone is much cheaper than any manned aircraft (while V1/V2 needed comparable or greater industrial input compared to fighter planes). If you want to scramble manned fighters (even WW2-style ones!) every time cheap drones are launched then the pure material cost per intercept might be acceptable (no guarantee here: you need more fuel and your ammu…
The V2 was so expensive it was rather catastrophic to the German war budget. V1s, on the other hand, were very cheap to make and deploy. > you need more fuel Not much of a problem. > and your ammunition is potentially more expensive than the drones payload I'd say it's on par. A few rounds into a slow moving target moving in straight line would be easy to hit. > the pilot wage/training costs alone ruins your entire b…
In WW2, the US lost ~15000 airmen just in training accidents to crew the ~300k planes it built. I'm sure we could get that rate down substantially with modern simulators and safety investments (=> also not free), but human lives simply got comparatively more expensive (and competent pilots were not that cheap back then either).
The attacker, meanwhile, is certainly gonna lose less men building and controlling the drones, and he can afford at least 10 attack drones for every interceptor you build.
If you did something like this on a larger scale, a big concern would also be that your manned interceptor aircraft simply become targets themselves, so the "low-risk turkey shooting" could quickly degrade.
I do expect (non-suicide?) interceptor drones as countermeasure at some point (specifically against the "cruise missile with props" style of attack drones, less so in the FPV weight class), and those could be conceptually quite similar to old prop fighters.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#417Earlier quoted context omitted.
The V2 was so expensive it was rather catastrophic to the German war budget. V1s, on the other hand, were very cheap to make and deploy. > you need more fuel Not much of a problem. > and your ammunition is potentially more expensive than the drones payload I'd say it's on par. A few rounds into a slow moving target moving in straight line would be easy to hit. > the pilot wage/training costs alone ruins your entire b…
A lot of people might find the idea fun, but actually sitting around in some remote base, just waiting for the next wave of drones to come? Even if you draft those people "for free", they could be working (or raise a family) instead, so the human cost is always there. In WW2, the US lost ~15000 airmen just in training accidents to crew the ~300k planes it built. I'm sure we could get that rate down substantially with…
As for being targets themselves, the drones would be in enemy airspace so who/what is going to target the fighters?
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#418They can also manufacture launchers faster and cheaper than they can be countered. $30k drone vs interceptor at millions.
The U.S. and Israel will not accept the current regime staying in power.
Neither side wants to stop the war. Israel, Europe, the U.S., gulf states and others in missile range of Iran will not want the current regime to remain in power.
What happens next? Full invasion? Regime change Iraq style??
Here is a highly probable outcome before next year. Iran continues breaking the Iron Dome and firing on "allied" targets and infrastructure. The U.S.refuses or cant sustain a full invasion (because it is a death trap).
What happens next? It is obvious Israel will use tactical nukes on Tehran and other targets in Iran. It is going to be their only option.
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#419The author explains that this problem is actually adversarial, in the sense that the attacker gets to observe defenses and allocate warheads and decoys accordingly. Thinking of our current circumstances, this suggests another cost of war: our offensive capabilities, as well as our defensive capabilities become more observable. Our adversaries are studying our strengths and weaknesses in Iran, and they will have a muc…
"Our" adversaries, huh? There are more people in our country than pedophile billionaires, but it's this group starting the wars, murdering civilians, and producing generations of "adversaries".
Re: Missile defense is NP-complete
#420Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Our" adversaries, huh? There are more people in our country than pedophile billionaires, but it's this group starting the wars, murdering civilians, and producing generations of "adversaries".
The pedophile billionaires are your leaders, because you voted for them. You have no one to blame but yourselves.