What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable • Hacker News Board

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#411

Post by throwawa1 » Tue, Mar 17, 2026, 2:33 PM UTC

kenjackson wrote: post #45

throwawa1 wrote: post #19

Its been unreliable my entire life. Every year the economy gets better but life gets worse. You can't even recognize the country any more.

It may be unreliable to you. I see the life of most people around me getting better. Even people that are somewhat poor (not dirt poor, but free lunch poor) have homes, three squares and snacks, PS5, mobile phones with cellular data, and cable tv. The biggest life issues I see are usually strongly related to substance abuse and mental health. Transplanting to even just the 80s would be a culture shock for most people…

Really curious. How is life getting better for most people? No one has kids, they can't afford families, medical care is unreachable, housing is unaffordable, I guess if your life is scrolling on an iphone its MUCH better but if you want to live, educate a family, retire, live in a safe community, or have healthcare its worse in every measure.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#412

Post by paulsutter » Tue, Mar 17, 2026, 2:57 PM UTC

testdelacc1 wrote: post #201

paulsutter wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great! So please explain what algorithms are used by these "nonpartisan" commissions?

I’ll reply in good faith even though I detect sarcasm in your comment. Generally nonpartisan commissions prioritise contiguity and compactness. There is an element of “I know it when I see it” because you’re trying to avoid both packing (packing minority voters from disparate areas into one) and cracking (distributing a minority district like Salt Like City into its 4 neighbouring districts, ensuring the city can’t v…

Thank you, I really appreciate it. Found a nonpaywalled link:

https://optimization-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/7...

It is exciting to see research, but this algorithm has never been used by any commission anywhere (unless it's been adopted since publication! I would love to hear)

Can you find any algortithms actually used by these "nonpartisan" commissions you mention? Or even could you explain how nonpartisan participants are selected? (even if their commissions dont use any objective methodology)

I would truly love to see a way out of this mess, but I've been hoping for more than “I know it when I see it”

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#413

Post by b112 » Tue, Mar 17, 2026, 3:15 PM UTC

I-M-S wrote: post #289

jgilias wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The situations are not comparable at all. That was the collapse of an authoritarian (wasn’t totalitarian anymore by the time it’d collapse) system running (badly) on command economy. Most of the points you mention are therefore just really off. Say, the Baltics flipping. Where the hell are we supposed to flip to? Russia? Where ethnic minorities are sent to die in expansionist wars in disproportionate numbers?

I believe OP was referring to Baltics flipping from USSR to the West (the EU). Some US analogues might include Canada flipping (already happening), no more coups in South American countries that vote in a "wrong" government, or the Middle Eastern countries allying with China (no longer impossible).

Good lord, Canada is not "flipping" anywhere. We've always had trade with China, and the US to this day has far more trade with China! We're the same we've always been, it's the US that has gone bananas, and decided to threaten annexation and purposeful economic collapse.

As a result, we've just stopping traveling, and as a country, buying from the US. We're sourcing 100+ billion over the next few years from other Western allies, not China.

That's not flipping anything. We always bought from other Western nations and allies in the past. We're just doing more of that, because, you know, you guys have turned into back stabbing asshats, who stab their friends in the back.

You may wonder the reaction, but your statement (while I'm sure was just meant as an observation) is quite harsh to take. Imagine if a friend tries to steal your car, then later calls you unloyal if you don't trust them. You'd be baffled.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#414

Post by senordevnyc » Tue, Mar 17, 2026, 4:41 PM UTC

Eddy_Viscosity2 wrote: post #381

senordevnyc wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m sorry, but this is nonsense. Yes, there’s a point beyond which more wealth doesn’t matter much in absolute terms, but it’s way beyond “basic needs”. Having nice cars, nice homes, traveling, paying for expensive education, having staff help you with things, flying first class, flying private, vacationing on a yacht, collecting art, etc, etc. There are near endless things to spend wealth on, and new things get unlo…

I mean yes you are correct here, but by the time you are in the 10s of billions phase you just don't see any difference in lifestyle.

Obviously, but again, that has nothing at all to do with being “beyond basic needs”.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#415

Post by svnt » Tue, Mar 17, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #359

svnt wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you wrote suggests the data will bias predictably, which matches my understanding. Reporting biased data as the default because the bias compensation is already built into the audience seems like a weak argument for not improving. They can provide for the continuation of data visibility/granularity by releasing the prior numbers as previously calculated and at the same time changing the calculation of the headli…

> What you wrote suggests the data will bias predictably Ex post facto . Before the fact, we don’t know. Imagine you know the weather will be a strong gust regardless of direction. Averaging the models will produce a central estimate. But you know it will be biased away from the center. You just don’t know, until it happens, in which direction. > They can provide for the continuation of data visibility/granularity by…

I’m confused by this discussion. It seems like you said the biases were structural because we know who reports early and that is why the early numbers are always revised down. Structural implies known in advance.

It also seems like you said they shouldn’t revise the numbers but now you are saying they already do.

What am I misunderstanding?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#416

Post by tomrod » Thu, Mar 19, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC

xanthor wrote: post #406

tomrod wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My comment was made prior to the parent's edit.Further, familiarity with the subject does not make an informed comment a non-sequitur. Happy reading. [0] https://sites.pitt.edu/~tgrawski/papers/2001%20What%27s%20Ha... [1] https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29349/w293... [2] https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2... [3] https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/245398/1/cesifo1_wp9..…

Nice you can also spam links without making an argument, some of which 404. Can you help me reverse a linked list in Python?

Weird, they all worked for me when I loaded them from Zotero.

I'd have to review how to code linked lists and not just use them. But I could probably share a delicious cookie recipe.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#417

Post by kQq9oHeAz6wLLS » Sun, Mar 22, 2026, 4:31 AM UTC

rkuykendall-com wrote: post #399

kQq9oHeAz6wLLS wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just fox news screams about the "true unemployment" U6 number when Democratics are in charge and then go back to reporting on U3 when a Republican is in office. To be fair, CNN and MSNBC do the same in reverse.

CNN and MSNBC are not propaganda networks in the way that Fox is.

Or, you've bought into the propaganda and you have lost your objectivity.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#418

Post by ssl-3 » Tue, Mar 24, 2026, 4:13 AM UTC

ssl-3 wrote: post #101

username135 wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been a nay sayer on LLMs/GPTs in general having tried many, but recently Ive been shepherding a fairly complex code build through the latest opus model and its quite impressive. It still gets things wrong occasionally but the time its saved me has been substantial. Im starting to enjoy it.

I recently built a reasonably-complex embedded controls project using codex and an esp32. Starting with systems stuff like "Set up vscode with whatever it needs to work with codex and talk to an esp32," and ending with "Now add a web interface with persistent tunables that always runs in both AP and station modes," my prompt inputs were very terse. And it'd just kind of go forth and just do it. It'd even design and r…

Just to follow up: I used it all week, in the field.

No issues to report.

The controls-widget behaved perfectly fine and I still have not seen the code. At this rate, I may never see it -- it seems to be a rather comprehensively complete project.