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Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

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Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#411

Post by pests »

happyopossum wrote: post #303
satvikpendem wrote: post #30

Cantor Fitzgerald, formerly led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and is now run by his son, went to various companies that were affected by tariffs and bought the rights to their potential tariff refunds for 20% of the value on the expectation that it'd be struck down by the courts. Now they stand to make huge returns of 3 to 5x for being correct on that bet, while, of course, consumers get nothing. Now if this i…

You've been sucked in by an online lie and are spreading it as fact: "Amid online claims Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s sons, Brandon and Kyle Lutnick, senior executives at Cantor Fitzgerald, could benefit from the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, a firm spokesperson told Newsweek it has “never executed any transactions or taken risk on the legality of tariffs."" [0] https://www.newsweek.com/howard-lutnick-sons-ma…

Not according to the letter obtained by WIRED, as written about up thread.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#412

Post by Maxatar »

burkaman wrote: post #405
danielmarkbruce wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

White House legal opinions aren't any better than other legal opinions. Opinions are not "information".

I understand your position but I disagree. If I were trying to predict whether the government is going to win in court, I think reading what the government's own lawyers think about the case would be valuable. If it were possible to pay for this I think people would, that's why I think it is material. Some random person's opinion is not relevant information, but the opinion of people directly involved in a case is.

Yes it absolutely is valuable to have access to expert opinions and people do pay money to acquire opinions from experts.

But expert advice, even if material, is not the same as insider information.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#413

Post by ksherlock »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #90
AdamN wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ironically I was mildly in favor of tariffs from the left pov. Reduced consumption and getting more taxes to help pay down the debt. Consumption was likely mildly reduced (and still is with the 15% tax) but now we have more inflation coming our way when those billions start flowing and our debt just keeps going up.

Such a regressive tax to get behind. Now if tariffs had only been applied to, I don't know, yachts, private jets…

From 1991-1993 there was a luxury tax on yachts, private jets...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxury_tax#United_States

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#414

Post by p_j_w »

happyopossum wrote: post #303
satvikpendem wrote: post #30

Cantor Fitzgerald, formerly led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and is now run by his son, went to various companies that were affected by tariffs and bought the rights to their potential tariff refunds for 20% of the value on the expectation that it'd be struck down by the courts. Now they stand to make huge returns of 3 to 5x for being correct on that bet, while, of course, consumers get nothing. Now if this i…

You've been sucked in by an online lie and are spreading it as fact: "Amid online claims Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s sons, Brandon and Kyle Lutnick, senior executives at Cantor Fitzgerald, could benefit from the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, a firm spokesperson told Newsweek it has “never executed any transactions or taken risk on the legality of tariffs."" [0] https://www.newsweek.com/howard-lutnick-sons-ma…

They’ve denied being involved in naked corruption, I suppose we have no choice but to take them at their word.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#415

Post by danielmarkbruce »

burkaman wrote: post #405
danielmarkbruce wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

White House legal opinions aren't any better than other legal opinions. Opinions are not "information".

I understand your position but I disagree. If I were trying to predict whether the government is going to win in court, I think reading what the government's own lawyers think about the case would be valuable. If it were possible to pay for this I think people would, that's why I think it is material. Some random person's opinion is not relevant information, but the opinion of people directly involved in a case is.

That's fine, to each their own on trying to make predictions. I did try to predict it, did it accurately (along with many others, this wasn't the hardest thing ever), and wouldn't have had any interest in any internal memo.

It's a public arena on things like this. I don't think even the justices themselves have "material inside information" until a little ways through the hearing, and people are trying to predict the outcome well before that. On the surface that might sound absurd, but it isn't.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#416

Post by bogtog »

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #122
satvikpendem wrote: post #30

Cantor Fitzgerald, formerly led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and is now run by his son, went to various companies that were affected by tariffs and bought the rights to their potential tariff refunds for 20% of the value on the expectation that it'd be struck down by the courts. Now they stand to make huge returns of 3 to 5x for being correct on that bet, while, of course, consumers get nothing. Now if this i…

This is wrong. It's not insider trading. Lutnick didn't have inside information. His son just had a brain. Anyone who read the case knew which way the court was going, it was the least surprising decision ever. Perhaps the only surprising thing is that the court ever heard it.

> This is wrong. It's not insider trading. Lutnick didn't have inside information. His son just had a brain. Anyone who read the case knew which way the court was going, it was the least surprising decision ever. Perhaps the only surprising thing is that the court ever heard it.

If this was so obvious, wouldn't there have been more competitors pushing down the value of it?

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#417

Post by gus_massa »

PaulDavisThe1st wrote: post #349
cj wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> dumb, or morally bad This is easy to say in hindsight. There was a non-zero chance the decision could have went the other way. Also, companies aren't stupid. They don't buy insurance against things that are impossible. And the supreme court doesn't hear cases that are 100% obviously illegal.

They weren't buying insurance. There's no insurance payout for the companies. They got a small amount of money in hand, and lost the chance to reclaim any of the tariff refund. That isn't insurance. Also, the SCOTUS is not a criminal court, it is a constitutional court. If a case is heard there, both sides have not agreed on "obvious illegality". That is unsuprising since in general one side (in this case, the admini…

I agree, it's like "reverse insurance". I'm not sure what is the name.

In insurance, you pay [-$10] to avoid a potencial negative risk [-$100].

Here you get money [+$10] instead of waiting for a potencial positive benefit [+$100].

Very slightly related https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_mortgage

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#418

Post by bumby »

cj wrote: post #168
danielmarkbruce wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's not a conflict of interest. It's perhaps dumb, or morally bad, or several other things.

> dumb, or morally bad This is easy to say in hindsight. There was a non-zero chance the decision could have went the other way. Also, companies aren't stupid. They don't buy insurance against things that are impossible. And the supreme court doesn't hear cases that are 100% obviously illegal.

I think the issue is that someone working in public office had influence to affect that probability, and their relatives stood to gain from it.

I don’t know enough about the ethics laws to know if it was strictly illegal, but it does create a smell.

Suppose a county engineer has influence on whether oil drilling will be allowed (they don’t make policy but consult those who do), and prior to approval their relatives buy up a lot of land in the area. That engineer may not have been the deciding factor, but it seems like it runs afoul of ethics laws/standards.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#419

Post by mgkimsal »

marcosdumay wrote: post #261
mgkimsal wrote: post #194

One thing I don't see mentioned enough with the whole "the consumers paid these tariffs! we should get refunds!"... We "paid" not just in higher prices, but in many layoffs, reduction in working hours, skipped bonuses and raises. Companies that get 'refunds' will have an opportunity to use that money to rehire and repay workers. I'm cynical enough to think that will happen in large measures across the whole country,…

> Companies that get 'refunds' will have an opportunity to use that money to rehire and repay workers. Why on Earth do you expect a single-time payment with no strings attached to make companies think some market is profitable so they should invest in it?

Unsure where you got that from? If a company that has had to lay off staff and reduce hours because of increase in expenses because of tariffs, then they get a chunk of money back, trying to 'get back' to where you were before - headcount, wages, etc - might be on your mind, and might be possible with a one-time refund of ideally a sizeable portion of your tax. However... we still have extremely high tariffs in place so the effects of higher input prices are still ongoing (and ramped up in some cases).

If our tariff structure went back to, say, October 2024, and companies who'd paid some inordinate tax - forcing layoffs and reductions - got a chunk of that back - and the taxes went back to what they were - there'd likely be some return to hiring and raises as before. But we can't get back to that any time soon with an administration hellbent on extracting as much from us via tariffs as possible.

Re: Judge orders government to begin refunding more than $130B in tariffs

#420

Post by hedora »

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #122
satvikpendem wrote: post #30

Cantor Fitzgerald, formerly led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and is now run by his son, went to various companies that were affected by tariffs and bought the rights to their potential tariff refunds for 20% of the value on the expectation that it'd be struck down by the courts. Now they stand to make huge returns of 3 to 5x for being correct on that bet, while, of course, consumers get nothing. Now if this i…

This is wrong. It's not insider trading. Lutnick didn't have inside information. His son just had a brain. Anyone who read the case knew which way the court was going, it was the least surprising decision ever. Perhaps the only surprising thing is that the court ever heard it.

The people selling the debt thought there was a ~ 20% chance the money would be collected.

Is there any proof he didn't have insider information? With this administration + court, it's rare when some sort of fraud, bribes, or protection money payments aren't at play.

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