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Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

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Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#411

Post by the_af »

gilfaethwy wrote: post #350
paulryanrogers wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How? Are you thinking of adversarial AI reviewers, runtime tests (also by AI), or something else? Guess I just don't see how you can take the human out of the loop and replace them with non-deterministic AIs and informal prompts / specs.

Humans are also non-deterministic, though. Why does replacing one non-deterministic actor with another matter here? I'm not particularly swayed by arguments of consciousness, whether AI is currently capable of "thinking", etc. Those may matter right now... but how long will they continue to matter for the vast majority of use cases? Generally speaking, my feeling is that most code doesn't need to be carefully-crafted…

> Generally speaking, my feeling is that most code doesn't need to be carefully-crafted. We have error budgets for a reason, and AI is just shifting how we allocate them. It's only in certain roles where small mistakes can end your company - think hedge funds, aerospace, etc. - where there's safety in the non-determinism argument.

That's a bit shortsighted. There have been cries of software becoming needlessly bloated and inefficient since computers have existed (Wirth, of course, but countless others too). Do you visit any gamer communities? They are constantly blaming careless waste of resources and lack of optimization in games for many AAA games performing badly in even state of the art hardware, or constantly requiring you to upgrade your gaming rig.

I don't think the only scenario is boring CRUD or line of business software, where indeed performance often doesn't matter, and most of it can now be written by an AI.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#412

Post by vannevar »

The enormous difference between vibe-coding and 3D printing is that vibe-coding is improving exponentially at a rapid rate, while 3D printing is improving linearly at a slow rate. Very little that we say about vibe-coding today is likely to be valid even six months' from now, whereas a 3D printer sold 5 years from now will probably be very similar to one sold today.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#413

Post by alnwlsn »

peteforde wrote: post #307

I've got to be honest: my complete skepticism that the maker movement is somehow past tense makes it extremely difficult for me to take this tenuous comparison to LLM coding particularly seriously. The author talks about lowered barriers to prototyping as though they represent a failure state; that's absurd, and it has absolutely nothing to do with whether most people have membership-based maker spaces nearby. Meanwh…

The maker movement probably is a failure if you're an economist. Nothing could be worse for the economy than people buying less domestic products in favor making their own stuff, and sending more of their paychecks to China to get more cheap circuit boards, machines, and components.

And of course I'm not going to be setting up a "mini factory", I don't feel like it and I already got the one thing I made that I wanted, which almost certainly would never have been profitable for anyone to make at quantity in the first place. In the unlikely event someone does want one, they can just make their own following the same process as above.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#414

Post by switchbak »

alnwlsn wrote: post #413
peteforde wrote: post #307

I've got to be honest: my complete skepticism that the maker movement is somehow past tense makes it extremely difficult for me to take this tenuous comparison to LLM coding particularly seriously. The author talks about lowered barriers to prototyping as though they represent a failure state; that's absurd, and it has absolutely nothing to do with whether most people have membership-based maker spaces nearby. Meanwh…

The maker movement probably is a failure if you're an economist. Nothing could be worse for the economy than people buying less domestic products in favor making their own stuff, and sending more of their paychecks to China to get more cheap circuit boards, machines, and components. And of course I'm not going to be setting up a "mini factory", I don't feel like it and I already got the one thing I made that I wanted…

And the entirety of OSS is hand waved away as an externality, but clearly there's something very powerful about all the sharing of models and knowledge going on that doesn't seem to be captured by traditional economic models (that I'm aware of).

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#415

Post by switchbak »

steve_adams_86 wrote: post #326
peteforde wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hear, hear! I am quite tired of skeptics and naysayers telling me that I'm only imagining learning, only imagining finishing projects, only imagining having more time for the fun parts.

I mean, I've expanded what I use my programming skills for dramatically in the last year. I've suddenly got several personal macOS apps I'm building and maintaining for myself, for my small business, or for fun. That never happened before (I've generally been full stack on the web). I've built far more useful and complex firmware and finally begun designing and building custom circuits. I rarely had the time for that…

"maybe I'll be smart enough to do something else that's useful" - I'm in precisely the same boat, with the same unease, but also it's kind of the golden time right now. We still get paid, we've been given superpowers that were sci-fi a couple years ago, and we can do great things with them.

With that kind of potential, I find it strange to think that all these talented people will be let go. Maybe if AI really ramps up quickly, but I think it's more likely we'll see a million small business started, exploring into niches that were just too much time investment previously. I myself have a bunch of ideas that also involve hardware and physical manufacturing.

It's a scary but very vibrant time to be in this position we are. It might not be bad for those who are bold enough to grab it by the horns.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#416

Post by LastTrain »

Petersipoi wrote: post #234
LastTrain wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m no fan of vibe coding but I usually find that people who use the term virtue signaling have none and hate those that do.

I hope the irony of your comment isn't lost on you

I mean I guess, but you and I are not going to see eye to eye on so-called "virtue signaling" so it isn't the burn you think it is. Virtue signaling is just a fancy term for shaming, right? Shaming serves society by moderating behavior that is unethical or immoral but not illegal. It serves a real purpose to keep us from sliding into a world where we act on our base instincts. Sure people can be a dick about it and be smug and superior, but it is really easy to roll your eyes and move on instead of getting triggered by it.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#417

Post by switchbak »

peteforde wrote: post #391
anon7000 wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’ve done a good job disproving your point that no one is buying them. Golf is a very popular hobby. The point of this thread: the maker movement isn’t dead simply because most people don’t care about CNC machines. In reality, there are loads of makers & people who love tinkering and building things for themselves, it’s easier than ever to do so (and to build very non-trivial products for yourself), and mor…

Also, there is a massive tropical aquarium store in a random strip mall a few blocks from my house. It takes up like three units. I don't know why I let myself get triggered by some rando who has convinced himself that just because he doesn't do something it must not be popular, but here I am.

Taylor Swift is very popular, therefore no one listens to anything but pop music. It's a very low effort argument.

Obviously such a pursuit is going to never be something 1/2 of people do, you need:

- space

- ambition

- aptitude

- money

- tolerance for huge amounts of frustration

- some ability and openness to learn rapidly

- enough time to devote to it

- a space to allow noisy things to run for hours

- the ability to acquire these things in your country

Those aspects filter out a great percentage of the population, of course this will never be "mainstream". VR goggles aren't mainstream, why would you expect someone wanting to make their own CNC cabinets (or whathaveyou) to be moreso?

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#418

Post by switchbak »

peteforde wrote: post #318
andsoitis wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's now possible for people to buy affordable CNCs, laser cutters and UV printers. Do a lot of people do it? Maybe the answer is a tentative yes, given news like the recent case about guns and 3D printing.

I would put "you can make anything" -> "I will print guns!" strongly in the "no creative ideas" category. Honestly, it's baffling that anyone would put real effort into printing guns when it seems as though some countries cough make it easy to pick one up at Walmart.

I think people get really worked up guns and 3d printing quickly. A lot of those folks are printing accessories for common firearms. I mod up my mtb bike, my work area, my coffee workstation - I'm not surprised that gun enthusiasts would want to tweak their weapons to suit their desire.

I think it's cool in a nerdy way, and I might even do it if: I was into shooting (I find it boring), and my government hadn't outlawed anything related to 3d printing and firearms entirely.

Of course there is a crew of people that want to print guns (not just accessories) for libertarian or criminal purposes - That seems like a lot of time to waste given how easily you can access guns (in the USA anyway). I'm not convinced that's a huge community, but I could be wrong.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#419

Post by switchbak »

peteforde wrote: post #375
klodolph wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you doing with TTL logic in 2026, out of curiosity? (I’m not saying it’s not used, but the only thing I’d use TTL for is building old circuits out of the Forrest Mims books.)

Reasonable question and hopefully an interesting answer... The simple lack of reasons to use TTL logic in 2026 was exactly why I didn't know what the deal was. It'd never come up, but I'd see it referenced. I'm self-taught and in defiance of the people who insist that LLMs turn our brains to passive mush, the more things I learn the more things I have to be curious about. LLMs remove the gatekeeping around asking "si…

I think you're in the minority of people that are using LLMs for one of the best uses - for augmenting your own understanding and intelligence. Of course you have to triangulate and triple check what they say, but that's a good habit to get into anyway. Many of my teachers would repeat tribal myths all the same.

Re: Will vibe coding end like the maker movement?

#420

Post by sarchertech »

the_af wrote: post #411
gilfaethwy wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Humans are also non-deterministic, though. Why does replacing one non-deterministic actor with another matter here? I'm not particularly swayed by arguments of consciousness, whether AI is currently capable of "thinking", etc. Those may matter right now... but how long will they continue to matter for the vast majority of use cases? Generally speaking, my feeling is that most code doesn't need to be carefully-crafted…

> Generally speaking, my feeling is that most code doesn't need to be carefully-crafted. We have error budgets for a reason, and AI is just shifting how we allocate them. It's only in certain roles where small mistakes can end your company - think hedge funds, aerospace, etc. - where there's safety in the non-determinism argument. That's a bit shortsighted. There have been cries of software becoming needlessly bloate…

Even in CRUD line of business software, lack of performance causes enormous problems that the current software development culture glosses over.

Just one example I've seen time and again. You take an application that if optimized could run on a single server (maybe 2 if you absolutely have to have zero downtime deployments), but because no one cares about performance it runs on 10 or more. You now have a complexity avalanche that rapidly blows up. Then you need more hierarchy to handle the additional organizational complexity etc...

Then people start breaking out pieces of the app so they can scale them separately and before long you're looking at 200 engineers to do a job that certainly doesn't need that many people.

I realize I'm ignoring a whole lot of other issues that result in this kind of complexity, but lack of performance contributes to this a lot more than people want to admit.

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