> Dynamic source NAT is literally a set of stateful firewall rules that have an action to modify src_ip and src_port in a packet header, and add the mapping to a connecting tracking table so that return packets can be identified and then mapped on the way back.
Yes, and that _provides security_. Thus NAT provides security. You can say "well really that's a stateful firewall providing security because that's how you implement NAT" and you would be technically correct but rather missing the point that turning NAT on has provided the user with security benefits thus being forced to turn it on is preventing a less secure configuration. Thus in common parlance, IPv4 is more secure because of NAT.
I will acknowledge that NAT is not the only player here. In a world that wasn't suffering from address exhaustion ISPs wouldn't have any particular reason to force NAT on their customers thus there would be nothing stopping you from turning it off. In that scenario consumer hardware could well ship with less secure defaults (ie NAT disabled, stateful firewall disabled). So I suppose it would not be unreasonable to observe that really it is usage of IPv4 that is providing (or rather forcing) the security here due to address exhaustion. But at the end of the day the mechanism providing that security is NAT thus being forced to use NAT is increasing security.
Suppose there were vehicles that handled buckling your seatbelt for you and those that were manual (as they are today). Someone says "auto seatbelts improve safety" and someone else objects "actually it's wearing the seatbelt that improves safety, both auto and manual are themselves equivalent". That's technically correct but (as technicalities tend to go) entirely misses the point. Owning a car with an auto seatbelt means you will be forced to wear your seatbelt at all times thus you will statistically be safer because for whatever reason the people in this analogy are pretty bad about bothering to put on their seatbelts when left to their own devices.
> in fact, there are ways to implement SNAT that do not properly validate that traffic is coming from an established connection; which, ironically, we routinely rely on to make things like STUN/TURN work!
There are ways to bypass the physical lock on my front door. Nonetheless I believe locking my deadbolt increases my physical security at least somewhat, even if not by as much as I'd like to imagine it does.