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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

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Re: Is it a bubble?

#411

Post by Planktonne »

roenxi wrote: post #404
obruchez wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's difficult to know what people really believe, especially after only a few minutes of discussion, but I would say most people I talk to don't believe AGI is even possible. And they probably think their life won't be changed much by LLMs, AI, etc.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

I think you should consider carefully whether AI is actually better at these things (especially any one given model at all of them), or if your ability to judge quality in these areas is flawed/limited.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#412

Post by internet_points »

some-guy wrote: post #259

One thing I don't hear people talking about very is about how AI is going to make money in any other way other than cutting employment. With the internet, and especially with the internet being accessible by anyone anywhere in the world in the late 2000s and early 2010s globally, that growth was more obvious to me. I don't see where this occurs with AI. I don't see room for "growth", I see room for cutting. We were a…

Yeah, can someone explain how you get rich by making the previously-employed workforce unable to afford your products?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#413

Post by tim333 »

dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

You can be a bear and still think AI will be big one day. It's quite plausible that LLMs will remain limited and we don't find anything better for decades and the stocks crash. But saying AI will never be a big thing is just unrealistic.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#414

Post by charcircuit »

ACCount37 wrote: post #379
thenaturalist wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also equating artificial intelligence with LLMs. I get that laymen and the media do it, but imo this looks really bad for an investor.

What's the alternative? Is there literally any AI tech more promising and disruptive than LLMs? Or should we buy into that "it's not ackhtually AI" meme?

Visual reasoning models. Having a computer being able to understand what is happening in the real world is very useful.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#415

Post by roenxi »

Planktonne wrote: post #411
roenxi wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

I think you should consider carefully whether AI is actually better at these things (especially any one given model at all of them), or if your ability to judge quality in these areas is flawed/limited.

So? Do I not count as a benchmark of basic intelligent now? I've got a bunch of tests and whatnot that suggest I'm a reasonably above average at thinking. There is this fascinating trend where people would rather bump humans out of the naturally intelligent category rather than admit AIs are actually already at an AGI standard. If we're looking for intelligent conversation AI is definitely above average.

Above-average intelligence isn't a high-quality standard. Intelligence is nowhere near sufficient to get to high quality on most things. As seen with the current generations of AGI models. People seem to be looking for signs of wild superintelligences like being a polymath at the peak of human performance.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#416

Post by ACCount37 »

kjhkjhksdhksdhk wrote: post #407
roenxi wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

exist in realtime. they don't, we do.

No, you pretend you do.

You got 200ms of round trip delay across your nervous system. Some of the modern AI robotics systems already have that beat, sensor data to actuator action.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#417

Post by bigmealbigmeal »

Madmallard wrote: post #372
dust42 wrote: post #367

The question is, can SV extract several trillion dollars out of the global economy over the next few years with the help of LLMs and GPUs? And the follow-up question: will LLMs help grow the global economy by this amount - because if not, then extracting the money will lead to problems in other parts of the world. And last not least, will LLMs -given enough money to train them on ever bigger data sets- magically turn…

there is no comprehension

This is a very strong, explicit statement in response to someone using the term rather casually. Can you explain why you are so sure?

I do think you need to define 'comprehension' in order to be certain. A statement fitting the form of "it doesn't comprehend, it just X" is incomplete, because it fails to explain why X is not a valid instance of comprehension.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#418

Post by popoflojo »

kjhkjhksdhksdhk wrote: post #407
roenxi wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

exist in realtime. they don't, we do.

That's an interesting bar. What is real time? One day they are likely to be faster than us at any response.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#419

Post by TheAceOfHearts »

sandworm101 wrote: post #403
dmurvihill wrote: post #340

This says it all: > I haven’t met anyone who doesn’t believe artificial intelligence has the potential to be one of the biggest technological developments of all time, reshaping both daily life and the global economy. You’re trying to weigh in on this topic and you didn’t even _talk_ to a bear?

One upon a time in SF i was told that human-driven cars would be illegal, or too expensive to insure, by the end of the decade. That was last decade. The modern tech economy is all about bubbles biult and sustained by hype people. Vertical farming. Pot replacing alcohol. Blockchains replacing lawyers. The metaverse replacing everything. Sure, we are in an AI bubble but we aslo ride atop a dozen others. AI data center…

I'm quite skeptical of the data centers in space claim, but I think a proof of concept can certainly be achieved in five years. I'm less convinced that we'll ever see widescale deployment of data center satellites.

And to be fair, I've read that Google's timelines for this project extend far beyond a 5 year horizon. I think it's a rational research direction for them, since it gets people excited and historically many space-related innovations have been repurposed to benefit other industries. Best case scenario would be that research done in support of this data centers in space project leads to innovations that can be applied towards normal data centers.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#420

Post by roenxi »

lynx97 wrote: post #406
roenxi wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't heard a good argument for why AGI isn't already here. It has average humans beat and seems generally to be better-than-novice in any given field that requires intelligence. They play Go, they write music, they've read Shakespeare, they are better at empathy and conversation than most. What more are we asking AI to do? And can a normal human do it?

> they are better at empathy Are you serious or sarcastic? Do you really consider this empty type of sycophancy as empathy?

Compared to the average human? Yes. Most people are distressingly bad at empathy to the point where just repeating what they just heard back to an interlocutor in a stressful situation could be considered an advanced technique. The average standard of empathy isn't that far away from someone who sees beatings as a legitimate form of communication. Humans suck at empathy, especially outside a tight in-group. But even in-group they lack ability.
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