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Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

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Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#411

Post by tstrimple »

skissane wrote: post #234
baq wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the optimistic take, too. There are plenty of countries which don’t care about votes, indeed there are dictators that don’t care about their subjects, they only care about outcomes for themselves. The economic argument only works in capitalism and rule of law - and that’s assuming money is worth anything anymore.

The Chinese Communist Party is obsessed with social stability. Do you think they’ll allow AI to take all the jobs, destroying China’s domestic economy in the process? Or will they enact human protectionism regulations? What Would Xi Jinping Do?

Look at what China does to protect its citizens against social media. You see China enacting many of the social media protections that many HN enthusiasts demand, yet Sinophobia makes them reframe it as a negative. "Children shouldn't have access to social media, except when China does it then it's bad!"

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#412

Post by mattmaroon »

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

The threat isn't to population, it's to jobs (at least so far) but yeah.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#413

Post by mattmaroon »

bambax wrote: post #377
JohnMakin wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think you’re realizing that the OP understands this, and that in this analogy, the horses are human beings

In this analogy, horses are jobs, not humans; you could argue there's not much of a difference between the two, because people without jobs will starve, etc., but still, they're not the same.

There is, at least, a way to avoid people without jobs starving. Whether or not we'll do it is anyone's guess. I think I'll live to see UBI but I am perphaps an optimist.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#414

Post by stared »

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

> the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me

It reminds me of "You maniacs! You blew it up! Goddamn you all to hell!" from the original Planet of the Apes (1968), https://youtu.be/mDLS12_a-fk?t=71

Quite ironically, the scene features a horse.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#415

Post by camillomiller »

maciejzj wrote: post #353

I may have developed some kind of paranoia reading HN recently, but the AI atmosphere is absolutely nuts to me. Have you ever thought that you would see a chart showing how population of horses was decimated by the mass introduction of efficient engines accompanied by an implication that there is a parallel to human population? And the article is not written in any kind of cautionary humanitarian approach, but rather…

Honestly, the answer for me is yes. I had expected it. The signs were in all the comments that take the market forces for granted. All the comments that take capitalism as a given and immutable law of nature. They were in all the tech bros that never ever wanted to change anything but the number of zeros in their bank account after a successful exit. So yes, I had that thought you are finally having too.

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#416

Post by majewsky »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #370
barrkel wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Incentives rule everything. For the Romans, winning wars was the main source of elite prestige. So the Empire had to expand to accommodate winning more wars. Today, the stock market and material wealth dominates. If elite dominance of the means of production requires the immiseration of most of the public, that's what we'll get.

> For the Romans, winning wars was the main source of elite prestige. So the Empire had to expand to accommodate winning more wars. That's almost 100% backwards. The Republic expanded. The Empire, not so much.

GP appears to be using "empire" as in "imperalistic" instead of as in "emperor".

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#417

Post by bee_rider »

pas wrote: post #398
JohnMakin wrote: post #365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think you’re realizing that the OP understands this, and that in this analogy, the horses are human beings

population projections they already predict that prosperity reduces population and even if AI becomes good enough to replace most humans the economic surplus does not disappear it's a coordination problem in many places on Earth social safety nets are pretty robust, and if AI helps to reduce cost of providing basic services then it won't be a problem to expand those safety nets ... there's already a pretty serious an…

Somebody should try a smart populist movement instead. My least favorite thing about my favored (or rather least disfavored) party is that we seem to believe “we must win without appealing to the populace too directly, that would simply be uncouth.”

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#418

Post by htrp »

ehnto wrote: post #277
reeredfdfdf wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The only reason to reduce headcount is to remove people who already weren’t providing much value." I wish corporations really acted this rationally. At least where I live hospitals fired most secretaries and assistants to doctors a long time ago. The end result? High-paid doctors spending significant portion of their time on administrative and bureaucratic tasks that were previously handled by those secretaries, pre…

That's what I see when companies cut juniors as well. AI cannot replace a junior because a junior has full and complete agency, accountability, and purpose. They retain learning and become a sharper bespoke resource for the business as time goes on. The PM tells them what to do and I give them guidance. If you take away the juniors, you are now asking your seniors to do that work instead which is more expensive and w…

that sounds like a pm problem

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#419

Post by htrp »

Eisenstein wrote: post #313
listenallyall wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But wouldnt these spreadsheets be tracking something like total revenue? If a doctor is spending time on admin tasks instead of revenue-generating procedures, obviously the hospital has accountants and analysts who will notice this, yes? I'll contrast your experience with a well-run (from a profitability standpoint) dentist's office, they have tons of assistants and hygienists and the dentist just goes from room-to-r…

> If a doctor is spending time on admin tasks instead of revenue-generating procedures, obviously the hospital has accountants and analysts who will notice this, yes? I am going to assume that the Doctors are just working longer hours and/or aren't as attentive as they could be and so care quality declines but revenue doesn't. Overworking existing staff in order to make up for less staff is a tried and true play. > I…

I feel like that's how you get Microsoft where each division has a gun pointed at the other division

Re: Horses: AI progress is steady. Human equivalence is sudden

#420

Post by naveen99 »

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #69
websiteapi wrote: post #22

funny how we have all of this progress yet things that actually matter (sorry chess fans) in the real world are more expensive: health care, housing, cars. and what meager gains there are seem to be more and more concentrated in a smaller group of people. plenty of charts you can look at - net productivity by virtually any metric vs real adjusted income. the example I like are kiosks and self checkout. who has encoun…

To give backing i’m from Australia which has ~2.5x the median wealth per capita of US citizens but a lower average wealth. This shows through in the wealth of a typical citizen. Less homelessness, better living standards (hdi in australia is higher) etc. Compare sorting by median vs average to get a sense of the issue; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_pe... This is a recent development where…

Without usa the way it is, Australia would be much less prosperous. From the perspective of employers and consumers, labor costs are the same. It’s just that in Europe and Australia, taxes are a larger percentage of cost of labor.
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