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Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

pewresearch.org

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Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#411

Post by jogjayr »

ryandrake wrote: post #274
nine_k wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investing is putting money into (hopefully) productive use, like a company with revenue, in an expectation of a return. Gambling is basically redistributing money according to a random numbers generator, It's a negative sum game (because the house takes its fee), but a surprise positive spike game. That spike forms an addiction in the less fortunate.

When you buy a stock, you're not contributing it to the company's productive use. If I buy $1000 of MSFT, Microsoft doesn't get an extra $1000 in their bank account to invest in their business. That $1000 is going to another bettor to settle his previous bet, and at some point in the future, I'll sell and get an unknown amount of money to settle my bet. Just because historically betting on the stock market has been +…

If you buy MSFT specifically you'll get regular, fairly predictable dividend payments and not just an unknown amount of money in the future.

MSFT goes up a tiny fraction when you buy. That means MSFT employees with stock grants get a tiny "raise" courtesy of you and with no cost to the company. Microsoft can also use their more expensive stock to make acquisitions. So you are contributing to the company's productive use in at least 2 ways if you buy its stock.

Buying MSFT doesn't meet the criteria to be called gambling, for me.

Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#412

Post by silisili »

Spooky23 wrote: post #269
keiferski wrote: post #67

The legalization and popularity of gambling is more than just an immoral activity that has negative societal effects. It’s reflective of people losing hope in the system’s ability to make their lives better. Gambling thrives in contexts where a ladder to success doesn’t exist or is perceived as not existing. If hard work or time doesn’t make your life better, then fate is just chance, and you might as well throw your…

Gambling encourages and creates bad behavior. I got to hang out at a local state-licensed casino for a few nights due to a work obligation. Try it some time and people watch. At best, there's groups of people having a good time. Usually they seemed to be associated with music or convention activity. Mostly, it's depressing, with old people blowing their pensions on stupid slot machines. At worst, there's really obvio…

I was so disappointed my first and only time visiting a casino. I thought it'd be full of show girls, rich people, James Bond types in tuxes...you know, the way they are often portrayed in movies.

Nope. 99% slovenly dressed elderly banging lifelessly away at slots. The other 1% lonely, middle aged men.

Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#413

Post by elliotto »

eep_social wrote: post #372
elliotto wrote: post #147

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tHiB8jLocbPLagYDZ/the-online... This less wrong piece by a libertarian who examines the numbers and struggles to reconcile them with his beliefs is one of the best indictments on sports betting. There is a small proportion of the population who cannot handle this. And they become prey to the predators in the sports betting industry. These guys make money off destroying their lives.

Good read, thanks! I was surprised that the author brushed by restrictions around marketing while concluding that limited access would be an improvement. The normalization of betting and odds via inclusion in broadcasts, celebrity endorsements, etc strikes me as a narrow precursor to harm that would be relatively easy to target and puts the onus and focus on the providers to find a sustainable business model.

The author approaches the topic from a libertarian perspective with some prior beliefs about the futility of regulation. These restrictions are not permitted within their ontology, which in my opinion makes the damning conclusion more powerful.

I strongly disagree with the authors political stance, which makes the fact that we agree on the problem / solution a nice bipartisan result

Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#414

Post by whateveracct »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #400
whateveracct wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> $10MM Ah, so they are just basing their life decisions on falsehoods then? lol I know the world is different now, but I graduated high school in the wake of the 08 financial crisis. A lot of this Zoomer doomerism sounds like what people said about millennials. But I (and my future wife) just went to a state school with in-state tuition. Got tech/eng degrees with some debt (5 figures). Have worked in the industry wi…

I don't know. If you're definition of success is owning a home and having a family, it gets close. you need to clear 1-2m for that house by itself in any mid-high COL area right now.You need another 1-2m in 18 years to take care of your kids (they can live on less, but is that "successful"?). In 20 years we're already talking about 3-4m dollars before we even dive into the other bills and emergencies to address. We h…

Was that survey over total earnings or savings? Like yeah..a few million tucked away will allow me to not work again. Or I can just work for a few decades like a normal person lol.

Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#415

Post by at-w »

estearum wrote: post #244
polio wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In sports betting contexts, you're often just betting against other players, I believe. If they're anything like prediction markets, the exchange isn't going to care how successful you are, as long as you're betting.

They're not like prediction markets. They do exactly what GP says they do: if you win, you effectively get banned (max bet sizes shrunk toward $0). If you suck, they do the reverse and expand your max bet sizes and offer you loans. These things are so unfathomably antisocial that I earnestly believe every single politician who advances them should be (journalistically) investigated as extensively as is legally possib…

There are lots of places where you can bet against other players now. The older betting markets like Betfair are no longer available in the US, but Kalshi, Polymarket, and others now offer the same kind of two-sided marketplace in the US.

Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#416

Post by at-w »

rurp wrote: post #324
polio wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In sports betting contexts, you're often just betting against other players, I believe. If they're anything like prediction markets, the exchange isn't going to care how successful you are, as long as you're betting.

Not only do winning players get quickly banned like sibling said, the house take on the major platforms is vastly higher than with traditional sports betting.

>the house take on the major platforms is vastly higher than with traditional sports betting

What kind of markets is this referring to?

Polymarket still charges 0 fees. While Kalshi's fees+spread can approach or even exceed traditional sportsbooks on some markets, neither of them have any interest in banning winning players, as they don't take a side on any bet and directly benefit from more betting activity. Kalshi also pays interest on bets, which can add up on longer term positions.

Betfair has operated with a similar model for decades in the UK and elsewhere.

Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#417

Post by dpark »

paulryanrogers wrote: post #405
dpark wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t earn a payout for cancer treatment. It is definitely unearned.

If you paid into the insurance pool, then how is the pay out unearned? Did you choose to get cancer or fake it?

Paying into insurance does not earn a payout any more than paying into the lottery earns a payout. The payout is determined by random chance.

Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#418

Post by Theodores »

watwut wrote: post #346
Theodores wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Addictive personality", now there is a deprecated phrase! In drug rehabilitation, the phrase is no longer used. Instead people have a bingo card of disease, conditions and syndromes to go with addiction. Once people have been pigeon-holed in a dozen ways then the die is cast, these conditions are no longer imaginary, you have to hold yourself up in life because X, Y and Z prohibit you from even giving it a go. Regar…

> relatively few chronic gamblers end up homeless and destitute. They rank up unpayable debts and their married partners end up being legally obligated to pay half of that even after divorce. Getting life together after gambling is super hard to impossible. It is literally easier to get back on track as alcoholic, as those have much smaller debts. And it is easier to avoid keep alcohol out of house then ... cell phon…

I have wondered for a while what happens to the gamblers in the city where I live. They don't end up in homeless shelters or at the soup kitchen, which has got me curious. I appreciate that the money comes to an end and debts are a result of that. However, the gamblers are not pushing it to destitution, they might lose all their big ticket stuff but they don't end up in just the clothes they wear and nothing else.

I don't think generalisations about ease of giving up alcohol versus ease of giving up sports betting (or other gambling) is an apples to apples comparison.

Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#419

Post by whateveracct »

tredre3 wrote: post #406
whateveracct wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> $10MM Ah, so they are just basing their life decisions on falsehoods then? lol I know the world is different now, but I graduated high school in the wake of the 08 financial crisis. A lot of this Zoomer doomerism sounds like what people said about millennials. But I (and my future wife) just went to a state school with in-state tuition. Got tech/eng degrees with some debt (5 figures). Have worked in the industry wi…

The 10MM figure might be a falsehood, but I think that you're falling for the same thing previous generations have fallen for: Assume that because it worked out for you, it will work out the same for the current generation. I'm not sure that it's an accurate view of reality this time. And to be clear I'm older than you, so this isn't me being a doomer and throwing my hands in the air about my own future. This is me n…

Leading up to me buying my home, the narrative was about how expensive houses are - especially in my city (Seattle).

But now on the other side, I got so lucky to buy one when I did (2020) due to interest rates.

Savvy also comes into play. The most affordable decent Seattle houses then were like $750k for sub-2k sqft well outside the main parts of the city. But Tacoma had 3k sqft houses for under $600k. 45ish minute reverse commute to Seattle bustling-est neighborhoods for evening fun. When we discovered this we pulled the trigger and it was the best financial decision we ever made along with going to college.

I agree it's a shame that owning in the biggest city (especially the nice parts) is hugely expensive.

Re: Americans increasingly see legal sports betting as a bad thing for society

#420

Post by jowea »

ryandrake wrote: post #271
prewett wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are many ways to use the financial markets that are not gambling. Buying an index fund or Coca-Cola isn’t gambling; it is not even very risky. Nor are individual stocks gambling, as you can get a reasonable idea of what a company’s price ought to be and how it is likely to perform in the future, at least for well-established companies. It’s also harder to get into debt, as long as you don’t short, because you c…

Buying a stock or mutual fund is the very definition of gambling: placing a monetary bet on an unknown future event. Just because this activity has historically had a +EV, doesn't make it any less gambling.

Is it gambling if it has a +EV?
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