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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

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Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#411

Post by zelphirkalt »

taormina wrote: post #276
jfengel wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Uber invented (or at least made widely available) taxi-by-app. Having scores of cab companies, accessed by telephone call, was supremely user-hostile. If the cab companies had gotten together on an app, they might have shortcut Uber and all of its many dubious practices. They finally are starting to but it's much too late.

Taxi-by-app existed pre-Uber, the innovation was making the taxi actual show up. Austin had the apps, and I would order one, and the taxis would get distracted on the way to my house and pick up other fares, so I couldn't go where I wanted. They had every chance to not be outcompeted by Uber, but they couldn't stop being taxis. And, here we are.

Not only did taxi by app exist way earlier, it was also wide spread ... in some big countries.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#412

Post by jobigoud »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #43

My understanding is that the cost of training each next model is very very large, and a half trained model is worthless. Thus when it is realised that this investment cannot produce the necessary returns, there will simply be no next model. People will continue using the old models, but they will become more and more out of date, and less and less useful, until they are not much more than historical artifacts. My poi…

Why do you think the models will become out of date and less useful? Like, compared to what? What external factor makes the models less useful?

If it's just to catch up with newly discovered knowledge or information then that's not the model, they can just train again with an updated dataset and probably not need to train from scratch.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#413

Post by vasco »

simianwords wrote: post #367
vasco wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found the comment to be quite sober and realistic. Other than usage of "they want" as a monolith group it's pretty accurate.

It is not realistic - we are consuming way more than any of the previous generations. Poverty is at an all time low and steeply dropped since the last century. We are curing diseases, people are living long. What's the pessimism about?

I just thought you could make your point without calling other people cringe for disagreeing. I agree the average now is better than any century before, while also agreeing there's many interests of the type the comment you replied to illustrates, trying to either reduce personal freedoms or perpetuating a certain order of things. Both things can be true and they are both realistic view points, specially because there's multitudes of people all with their own priorities fighting for their own ideal futures and a few of those have a crazy amount of power.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#414

Post by cladopa »

m000 wrote: post #407

"During bubbles, every experiment or idea gets funded, the good ideas and the bad ideas. And investors have a hard time in the middle of this excitement, distinguishing between the good ideas and the bad ideas. ... But that doesn't mean anything that is happening isn't real." Remind me again why we need investors to fund bad ideas? The whole premise of western capitalism is that investors can better align with the ne…

There is a very important difference: real investors risk their own money, the money they saved over their entire life making decisions.

Under socialism bureaucrats risk someone else's money.

We are not in a pure capitalistic society, we also have States, central Banks with central planning expending over half the money in Europe and USA and more than half in Asia.

As a European myself that see the public money being wasted by incompetent people and filling the pockets of politicians, specially marxist ones. For example, the money Spain received after COVID filled so many socialist pockets and has not given information back to Europe as of how it was spent(it was spent on their own companies of friend and family).

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#415

Post by lightedman »

flanked-evergl wrote: post #308
bluefirebrand wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And we're not talking a 51-49 disproportion, we're talking about a 99.9999 percent of the benefit will go to the richest people

Cite?

The entirety of human history.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#416

Post by deadbabe »

javierluraschi wrote: post #142
akagusu wrote: post #97

The big question is what "society" he is talking about? Is it the "society" that includes all people, or the "society" that includes only rich people?

It will benefit all people but it will disproportionally benefit more rich people.

Rich people will enjoy additional monetary benefits, but everyone will still enjoy the same standard benefits.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#417

Post by dzhiurgis »

pyrale wrote: post #397
simianwords wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the past few revolutions benefitted everyone and we are better off. Look at industrial revolution, digital revolution. Why do you think it is different this time? If trickle down economics don't work, why is world poverty at all time low and consumption at all time high?

> Look at industrial revolution I really don't see how one can separate the industrial revolution from colonialism, considering we have chiefs of government in colonial countries on the record saying that colonies are a necessary outlet for industrial goods [1]. Once you've established that link, it's hard to explain that "everyone" benefitted from the industrial revolution. Even disregarding that, the working condit…

Places that luckily avoided colonialism haven’t improved a zilch.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#418

Post by tliltocatl »

m000 wrote: post #407

"During bubbles, every experiment or idea gets funded, the good ideas and the bad ideas. And investors have a hard time in the middle of this excitement, distinguishing between the good ideas and the bad ideas. ... But that doesn't mean anything that is happening isn't real." Remind me again why we need investors to fund bad ideas? The whole premise of western capitalism is that investors can better align with the ne…

Committees' investment tends to be not very diversified and often too risk-averse because of how blame placing works. E. g. most of soviet's cloning of chip (and many other products) wasn't due to lack of engineering skill - it's just less risk for the bureaucrats running the show. R&D for an original chip is risky and timing it to the next November the seventh is likely to not work. Cloning is a guaranteed success.

The whole point of capitalism is that one is entitled to the consequences of their own stupidity or the lack thereof. The investors are more willing to take the risks because their losses are bounded - they are risking only as much as they are willing, rather than their status in an organization. Of course once all investors ends up investing into the same bubble there is no real advantage over a committee.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#419

Post by tliltocatl »

cladopa wrote: post #414
m000 wrote: post #407

"During bubbles, every experiment or idea gets funded, the good ideas and the bad ideas. And investors have a hard time in the middle of this excitement, distinguishing between the good ideas and the bad ideas. ... But that doesn't mean anything that is happening isn't real." Remind me again why we need investors to fund bad ideas? The whole premise of western capitalism is that investors can better align with the ne…

There is a very important difference: real investors risk their own money, the money they saved over their entire life making decisions. Under socialism bureaucrats risk someone else's money. We are not in a pure capitalistic society, we also have States, central Banks with central planning expending over half the money in Europe and USA and more than half in Asia. As a European myself that see the public money being…

>> There is a very important difference: real investors risk their own money, the money they saved over their entire life making decisions.

Except for the "institutional investors".

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#420

Post by arisAlexis »

bombcar wrote: post #20
ramesh31 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>dotcom bubble had tons of activity, too. The difference now is that this is all (or mostly) idle cash being invested. The massive warchests built up by FAANG over the last decade are finally being deployed meaningfully rather than sitting in bonds or buying back stock. Much different scenario than companies with non-viable business models going IPO on a wish and a dream.

It's a question of how far the contagion goes - the Dotcom bubble trashed the NASDAQ and rumbled the world a bit, but the "big stocks" weren't directly involved or affected much; the subprime mortgage bubble shook the very foundations of the banking world. Will the contagion be limited to a few companies, or will the S&P crumble under the bubble's collapse?

in the meantime USA and all the world is going actually all-in AI..
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