America’s incarceration rate is in decline • Hacker News Board

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#411

Post by bryanrasmussen » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 3:52 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #55

strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

there are also age correlated birth defects, the cause of which have not been adequately determined in all cases but the high correlation does suggest a relation.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#412

Post by photochemsyn » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 3:53 PM UTC

shadowtree wrote: post #402

While my Target puts Legos behind plexiglas. While my Safeway puts deodorant behind plexiglas. Statistics are amazing. Even crime stats are "down". Don't report, don't convict - done.

This points more towards organized crime rings targeting stores, taking large amounts of the same popular items, then reselling them on eBay or Amazon. If you have a smallish number of people doing a largish number of crimes, this won't be reflected in incarceration statistics (particularly if the resellers rarely get caught).

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#413

Post by chaps » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 3:59 PM UTC

photochemsyn wrote: post #412

shadowtree wrote: post #402

While my Target puts Legos behind plexiglas. While my Safeway puts deodorant behind plexiglas. Statistics are amazing. Even crime stats are "down". Don't report, don't convict - done.

This points more towards organized crime rings targeting stores, taking large amounts of the same popular items, then reselling them on eBay or Amazon. If you have a smallish number of people doing a largish number of crimes, this won't be reflected in incarceration statistics (particularly if the resellers rarely get caught).

"This points more towards" -- you have any source towards this? :)

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#414

Post by almosthere » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 4:09 PM UTC

snarf21 wrote: post #368

philipallstar wrote: post #321

Incarceration isn't the same thing as crime. If the most populous state by far (California, almost 40m people in 2025) passes a law[0] that stealing things under $950 is a misdemeanor rather than a felony, then crime can continue while incarceration rates drop. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_California_Proposition_47

This is a very one sided presentation of the facts. This fact is generally used to suggest that theft is all a liberal blue state issue. The highest felony theft amount in the US is in red Texas and is $2500. Around 40 states have a *HIGHER* felony $ limit for theft than California. If you think about it, it makes a lot of sense to not spend $10K+ to jail someone for stealing $500 of stuff. There are more cost effect…

Yeah search for "California store owner kills" and "Texas store owner kills" and see the variety that comes up. In Texas the people are the militia and defend their property. That limit doesn't matter there.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#415

Post by pjdesno » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 4:10 PM UTC

3eb7988a1663 wrote: post #207

pjdesno wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just law enforcement and sentencing - there are verifiable numbers for the results of certain crimes - homicides and auto theft come to mind - and most have declined precipitously. E.g. Boston had 1,575 reports of auto theft in 2012, compared with 28,000 in 1975; Massachusetts had 242 murders in 1975, and 121 in 2012. (a 56% drop in homicide rate, as population went up 14%)

That car theft number is blowing my mind. I would have easily guessed 10x that. Are there any aspects of the crime that make it less appealing? Electronic counter measures too good? Price of replacement parts no longer carry a premium? Too easy to get caught?

This paper argues that electronic locks played a large role: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41284-024-00452-2

I would bet that the pervasive use of electronic records has something to do with it, too. According to this 1979 report from the Nat'l Assoc. of Attorneys General, in the 70s there were a lot of paths to retitling a stolen vehicle back then, which along with the the rise of chop shops and easier export of stolen cars, supported a large stolen-car economy: https://www.ojp.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/59904NCJRS.pdf

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#416

Post by JohnMakin » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 4:10 PM UTC

reverendsteveii wrote: post #20

kovek wrote: post #13

This is interesting. I don't know why it's happening. However, this book deserves a mention: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Natur... . It shares statistics on how violence has been decreasing throughout the history of humanity.

as a followup to that (excellent) book, here's Barry Glassner - A Culture of Fear. The Better Angels of Our Nature talks about how violence has always been declining. A Culture of Fear talks about how the rate of that decline has been increasing since the 90s but people actually perceive things as becoming more dangerous rather than less, and attempts to come up with an answer as to why that may be the case.

This has often been attributed to banning lead additives from gasoline.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#417

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 4:12 PM UTC

mdorazio wrote: post #340

casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

Please be careful about Freakonomics and the other PopSci books like it. Many of the claims it makes have either been disproven, shown to be flawed, or do not reflect consensus among serious researchers. Some examples here: https://www.americanscientist.org/article/freakonomics-what-...

[deleted]

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#418

Post by hylaride » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 4:13 PM UTC

achillesheels wrote: post #380

solatic wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, you continue to grow the population through immigration. The US is unique (or maybe there are a handful of others, I don't know) in its ability to welcome immigrants who, within two generations, largely see themselves as Americans first and not as the identity of their grandparents. American identity politics has eroded this somewhat but it is still largely true, for example, that grandchildren of immigrants will…

I disagree. Immigration suppresses wages. Which suppresses native born childmaking, which fuels more government charity, erm, welfare, which dampens productivity, which erodes civil liberties. American is not seen as promoting human rights, and to infer all immigrants are good is naive, hate to get off my porch about this. sits back down on rocking chair whistling “I Wish I was In Dixie” and widdling a hangman with t…

> Immigration suppresses wages. Which suppresses native born childmaking, which fuels more government charity, erm, welfare, which dampens productivity, which erodes civil liberties.

Japan and Korea have almost no immigration and abysmally low birth rates. Your arguments don't really hold water. Having children is actually more of a burden on the state, as those kids need schools, (in most western countries publicly funded) healthcare, etc. Taking in a healthy immigrant at 20 is better almost all round from a purely economic point of view.

And immigration doesn't suppress wages any more or less than having tons of kids would over the long term. A person "taking" a job is still a taking a person whether they were born or immigrated. This is ignoring the fact that more people over time enlarge the economy and opportunity in it. Would the United States be a better country today if it didn't accept the mass immigration from Italy, Ireland, and Eastern Europe between 1850-1914 and had 1/4 the population?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#419

Post by almosthere » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 4:14 PM UTC

After covid they changed who will go to jail for what because they decided overcrowding with covid was killing inmates. I think it was the right thing to do at the time.

However since 2021ish crime has been skyrocketing. It's definitely time to figure out the next steps. I want to live in a peaceful, safe society. It makes sense to separate those that can't help but destroy the peace.

It has also been stated that something like 90% of crime is performed by a very small percentage of people and most of it is just the same person over and over and over. Those people must be separated from society.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#420

Post by ryoshoe » Thu, Jun 26, 2025, 4:16 PM UTC

pc86 wrote: post #359

ath3nd wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think the ideal set up (it would have been so for me) would have been for both parents to work part time. Beautifully said, very progressive also! I am a big fan of the 4-day work week (for the same amount of money as 5 days), it's been transformative for my life. The extra energy and focus you get from that 1 day translates to higher productivity in the 4 days where you do work. Sadly, the current "squeeze em',…

Who wouldn't be a fan of 80% of the work for 100% of the pay? It's a built-in raise equal to or greater than what you'd get from changing jobs, without the switch in seniority or experience.

A 4 day work week can always be implemented as 4 10 hour days instead of 5 8 hour days.