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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#411

Doesn't seem to be affecting prices much. My best quote for moving a household's belongings via container from US (California) to the UK (Northwest) is ~$26k including insurance (which is mandatory).

I don't see why it should increase the costs of shipping. Can you outline a plausible mechanism?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#412
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All I have to say is imagine if Biden did this, what the news would be saying. Surely you don’t mean to imply the media treated Biden less favorably than Trump?

Aggregate media bias across TV/Radio/Newspapers is interesting because both the direction and scale matters. Of course bias is only part of the story, do an objectively terrible job and you get more negative stories overall. As a concrete example a great deal of left leaning media was very critical of Biden running for reelection and especially waiting that long to pull out. You almost never see that kind of thing fr…

NYT, WaPo, MSNBC, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS are not niche. They all ran cover for Biden until the debate made it too obvious. They were not "very critical". They are, however, extremely critical of anything Trump does.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#413
post #17
post #2

It will be interesting to see if retailers choose raising prices or if they lean more towards ... just not offering some things.

A retailer would be irrational to let stock run out instead of continuously raising prices.

Not enough greed: Stockpile in a back warehouse and raise prices on the two or three items per day you allow on the shelves.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It started in 2008. The Democratic party tried to rig it for Clinton. I'm sure she's a wonderful person in real life, but she's one of the most unpopular people to ever run for office. Obama actually is likeable, easily winning the primary and both elections. The Dems, because deep down they'd rather have the GOP over real progressives. Decided to rig it for Hillary again in 2016. Sanders had an actual base, but the…

They did cancel some primaries in 2019 to protect Trump or at least his feelings. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/06/republicans-cancel...

That's different since generally you don't need a primary when your party is running for re election.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#415
post #158

I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard ( https://tower.portoptimizer.com/ ) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.

Week 9->10 2025 had a 35% drop too. And Week 9->10 2024 had a 45% drop and a 26% drop Week 16->17 2024.

Starting to wonder how significant this news really is?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What is wrong with kids getting christmas toys? What is the upside from the tariffs? Cost increases from onshoring are more than wage increases from onshoring. There is no problem with trade deficits. Countries accumulating USD means they have to lend it back at cheaper and cheaper rates. The real problem is the federal deficit. In 2024 the USA had to borrow $2 trillion to keep the lights on, while foreign countries…

But it’s politically impossible to reduce the federal deficit. So what do we do?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don't have 120,000 school shooting deaths a year, but we do have that many overdose fatalities. I'd say the cure is just fine in this case.

If searching every single de minimis package would actually save 120,000 lives a year, I might even agree with you. But it would not. It would accomplish next to nothing. To say nothing of the fact that fentanyl is not just a supply issue, the supply would just shift to other routes of ingress.

I'll refer you to the article I sent, which you seem not to have read. Or this one: https://thecityvoice.org/2024/10/18/de-minimis-the-us-law-th...

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#418
post #99

Stopping the flow of Chinese products, often made with child or forced labor, is a good thing: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/reports/child-labor/list-o... . Weren’t we upset about the Uyghurs five minutes ago? Trade with China is bad. It means a race to the bottom with a foreign country that doesn’t have our labor protections or environmental laws, and whose “comparative advantage” is cheaper labor. This was a wi…

If it was only China being tariffed, instead of including all the allies we need to stand against China, you would start to have a point. If they were based on something other than a 1600s child king's understanding of trade balance, maybe focused on particular kinds of manufacturing, or even just explicitly based on morals instead of this fantasy of manufacturing returning to the US, you would have a point. But none…

That might all be true, but Trump is also the only one in decades to move the needle in the direction it needs to go. Even Obama was pushing us in the direction of even more free trade with TPP.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#419
post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The retailers need to start showing tariff charge as separate line. People have the right to to see what they voted for. Yesterday Trump frantically called Bezos when Bezos threatened to do it, and Bezos seems to have backed up (probably got some concession for that). Edit: it is also can be treated as a consumer right to know, by analogy with food labeling), what are the major components of the price they are paying…

Retailers and middlemen typically don't like exposing how much -they- paid for an item. Exposing tariffs would show how much things are marked up from time of landing to reaching the shelves.

Varies based on market. Where middle men actually do things and add lots of value they don't generally care.

When your value-add is fronting the cash for a container of something, doing paper pushing and sending the resultant product to an Amazon warehouse people will ask tough questions like "who are all these parties you're pushing papers to? What is their purpose and should they even exist in 2025" all of which is just a proxy for "if we fixed the system you wouldn't exist" and you can't really fault them for that.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#420
post #99

Stopping the flow of Chinese products, often made with child or forced labor, is a good thing: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/reports/child-labor/list-o... . Weren’t we upset about the Uyghurs five minutes ago? Trade with China is bad. It means a race to the bottom with a foreign country that doesn’t have our labor protections or environmental laws, and whose “comparative advantage” is cheaper labor. This was a wi…

This is so disingenuous a defense of the circus going on right now for so many reasons. First of all, nobody in the current administration would give a shit if somehow China made a deal. The Tariffs would go back down again. The Tariffs are not contingent upon good labor laws in China or anything like that. Like seriously. Yes, the left wants better labor power and yes the left continues to understand that offshoring…

> By all means, we should pursue a humanist trade policy that pressures developing countries to improve labor rules, human rights, democracy, etc. But to characterize this present circumstance as that is ridiculous.

But nobody besides Trump is going to do that, because everyone is addicted to the short term boosts of free trade. Obama talked a big game and then in office became a free trader that was pushing TPP before Trump killed it.

The reason Trump happened is because the grownups have been rowing in the wrong direction for 40 years.

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