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America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

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Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#411

Post by bluGill »

aaronbaugher wrote: post #328
sightbroke wrote: post #317

I am by no means an export on manufacturing, nor international trade, economics, or virtually anything relevant to manufacturing. Just a layman here. Observationally I fear there is a lack of nuance in discussing "bringing back manufacturing" (really re-expanding) to the U.S. I fear the lack of nuance is due to bias based on not liking the guy in the red tie or the other guy that's in a blue tie so there's just blind…

Yes, there's little nuance. I see so many people saying it will be hard to bring back manufacturing jobs, or "we can't go back to the 50s," and then they just stop as if that settles the argument. The implication, which they never say out loud, is that we shouldn't even try, just accept things as they are. Just be the Big Consumer until someday the rest of the world doesn't want our dollars anymore, and then what? Se…

We also need to look at what manufacturing we want. That is why the military needs keep coming up - in case of war we are unlikely to be able to get things from China so we better have a different source (though the source need not be in the US - Canada should be just as good so long as we can keep Canada our friends - same with the EU).

Once the military needs are met, I don't care what we make, just that we need good jobs for people who are not able to handle more complex jobs.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#412

Post by bluGill »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #184

I think most people have a very confused understanding of money(currency) and value. Workers produce value, not money . Workers get a cut of that value, which is converted to money. To get by comfortably in the US, a first world developed economy, you need to be producing a lot of value. Everything is made to accommodate high value workers. Producing t-shirts, window fans, or toilet brushes is not high value work. Th…

You are missing something: quantity. A toilet brush itself is low value, but the US needs 30 million per year (this is a guess, but it seems reasonable enough - every person buys one every 10 years, which seems right based on how long they last. I am likely off, but probably not by an order of magnitude so let us use that number for discussion unless/until someone really wants to find a better number). If you can make/sell a million brushes per year with a gross profit of $1 on each that is a million dollars, if labor and the machines are amortize to $.50 each you net profit is then $500k/year - many small company CEOs would be happy with that.

You can run the numbers many different ways, but the important point is low value production is always about volume.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#413

Post by tokioyoyo »

xnorswap wrote: post #161
tokioyoyo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again, want to point out how this is simply American leadership not wanting to accept their loss and move on. For the first time in the history they're not being perceived as the "global leader", and that's not acceptable from their POV. Now it's just freaking out and hoping that some extreme policy changes will change the course. From my personal experience, most people act this way when they're in distress and…

> For the first time in the history I'll charitably assume you meant first time in post-war history. USA as "The Global leader" didn't emerge until after Europe was ravaged first by The Great War and then WWII. No-one was looking toward the USA for leadership during The Great Game. Even by the time of the outbreak of WW1, the size of the USA's army was very small, half the size of the British army, which was itself c…

I was a few drinks in on a sunny Tokyo day when I wrote it, my bad. But yeah, sorry, that’s what I meant. Basically since gaining the “leadership”, which you’re completely right about.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#414

Post by sightbroke »

bluGill wrote: post #411
aaronbaugher wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, there's little nuance. I see so many people saying it will be hard to bring back manufacturing jobs, or "we can't go back to the 50s," and then they just stop as if that settles the argument. The implication, which they never say out loud, is that we shouldn't even try, just accept things as they are. Just be the Big Consumer until someday the rest of the world doesn't want our dollars anymore, and then what? Se…

We also need to look at what manufacturing we want. That is why the military needs keep coming up - in case of war we are unlikely to be able to get things from China so we better have a different source (though the source need not be in the US - Canada should be just as good so long as we can keep Canada our friends - same with the EU). Once the military needs are met, I don't care what we make, just that we need go…

> just that we need good jobs for people who are not able to handle more complex jobs

If manufacturing becomes more efficient at using labor from automation that seems like that would lower the number of available jobs wouldn't it?

Unless consumption grows with the increase in output so that more factories are needed to meet the demand?

If you need 1000 cars and automation takes it down to 10 people from 100 people before, where are those 90 other people to get jobs?

Unless you grow the need for cars to 10000.

Simplification I know, but I am confused at how manufacturing is supposed to endlessly support a large "less-complex task" labor supply while simultaneously providing a good standard of living?

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#415

Post by tokioyoyo »

Teever wrote: post #325
dv_dt wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

France and Spain continue to exist and they were former hegemons. China has stably existed with long periods of turning inwards after more regional hedgemony.

It's really straight forward -- Do you consider things like liberal democracy, property rights, freedom of expression, freedom of thought, freedom of association, due process, and the rule of law to be essential features of society? If you don't -- Chinese hegemony and the path it will lead the world down is the one for you. If you do -- Then American hegemony with all its flaws is something worth fighting for.

People value freedom in different ways. Personally, I would ally myself with tomorrow’s bully, rather than today’s. I understand the implications, but it looks like most of nations are shifting in the same manner.

One note, some of the things you’ve listed has been proven as “mostly on paper, once people get their way, mental gymnastics will overcome the reason” in the past month. For a bastion of “freedom and democracy”, it’s really not looking like one from outside.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#416

Post by vFunct »

charlie90 wrote: post #407
vFunct wrote: post #7

Our economy was designed to NOT have citizens work at factories. We pay thousands of dollars a year in our public schools to teach each of our citizens calculus, literature, world history, and physics, so that they DON'T have to work at a factory, or perform manual labor like picking strawberries or driving trucks or cleaning toilets. Why would anyone want to go back to an economy that can be run by a third worlders?…

>Economics works when the people do the things they are most efficient at. If you believe this statement, then you must be supportive of open borders. People in China might be more efficient at doing local US service jobs. Whose to say we dont let them do it?

Yes. Now people understand why open borders are a good thing.

Imagine how bad the US economy would be if we had tariffs and border controls between states.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#417

Post by cratermoon »

constantcrying wrote: post #401
cratermoon wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unskilled-labor.asp

"Unskilled" is what I meant. People with zero economic value who only can do tasks where machines are already superior to them. That definitely is the case for much of the prison population. It is better that they are kept far away from manufacturing because they are unskilled.

> It is better that they are kept far away from manufacturing

I've got bad news for you, then. https://www.vox.com/2018/8/24/17768438/national-prison-strik...

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#418

Post by knubie »

jghn wrote: post #117

The other day I saw the results of a poll [1] where 80% of Americans thought the *country* would be better off if more Americans worked in factories. However, only 20% of Americans thought that *they* would be better off if more Americans worked in factories. It was surprisingly bipartisan. In other words, people like the idea of this, but no one actually wants this. [1] https://www.ft.com/content/845917ed-41a5-449f-…

I mean 20% of the population thinking they would be better off working at a factory is huge. So we need more than that?

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#419

Post by newuser94303 »

Teever wrote: post #147
tokioyoyo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once again, want to point out how this is simply American leadership not wanting to accept their loss and move on. For the first time in the history they're not being perceived as the "global leader", and that's not acceptable from their POV. Now it's just freaking out and hoping that some extreme policy changes will change the course. From my personal experience, most people act this way when they're in distress and…

This isn't just ego. This is an impending existential issue. America needs to increase manufacturing capacity if it wants to maintain hegemony and possibly world peace. China will soon have the ability to take Taiwan and Korea and Japan. If that happens it's game over for any American interests and perhaps democracy as a whole. Wargames[0] paint a grim picture of an upcoming conflict between China and America over Ta…

I don't know why people keep thinking that China will attack Taiwan. It took HK and Macao without a shot. I think China is following Sun Tzu.

"subduing the enemy without fighting," is the epitome of strategic thinking in his book, The Art of War. This means achieving victory through cunning, deception, and maneuvering, rather than through direct confrontation and bloodshed"

They are increasing their military knowing that US military costs 4+x as much. It might be 4x better so don't fight. Just bankrupt the US. Trump wants a $1T military budget next year.

Why would China want to conquer the West? Buying what it wants is cheaper than an uncertain military battle fought with Nukes.

Re: America underestimates the difficulty of bringing manufacturing back

#420

Post by insane_dreamer »

like_any_other wrote: post #350
pjc50 wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> making logical arguments in this environment feels almost pointless. Unfortunately this is the culmination of social media as a controversy machine, that promotes the worst arguments. > ideological purity tests like required DEI statements Example? There's a controversy industry that cherry picks the worst examples of student-politics excess in these regards and then carefully conflates it with university policy. A…

> Example? Diversity Statements Required for One-Fifth of Academic Jobs - https://www.schoolinfosystem.org/2021/11/11/study-diversity-... More examples: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43692945

20% isn't so bad; the way it's usually portrayed in the media it sounds more like 90% of posts require such statements
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