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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

411–420 of 812 posts

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#411
> 1) Brain drain the world. Work visas for [...] literally anyone who produces value.

So, to put it in terms of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, they want to drain the rest of the world of everybody but hairdressers and marketing experts?

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That when you drain every smart/productive person away from every other country This is a ridiculous premise.

I edited that sentence to be less absolutist, but still, isn't this essentially what this article and many people are advocating? Attracting all the smartest and most productive people in the world to move to the US? How is that a mischaracterisation of the argument?

geohot is trying to convince himself not to be drained..

See https://geohot.github.io/blog/jekyll/update/2024/11/03/high-...

>Oh and in the IRL mean time, it’s very nice to be physically in a high trust society. Still working on opening an office in Hong Kong for those who want, salaries higher in person.

Personally, I hope he'd flesh out more of that Bretton-Woods vs inflation argument (instead of fixating on gold, build an argument on that energy graph in the middle of it all (blackgold? stargold? hydrogold? datagold? Transmuted silicon ingots?))

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#413
post #286
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The idea was to provide worker visas to engineers who did well and graduated from good American universities Some EU countries offer scholarships to attract good foreign undergrads and grad students to their universities. The whole point is that they stay afterwards, and they try really hard to keep them. It's been proven to be quite economically profitable, see e.g. [1]. I've never understood what's the point of a…

Japan is very good at this. They’re essentially like “You got someone willing to pay you? Cool, come on in.” Then after 5 years you can (if you want) naturalize, and after 10 you can get permanent residency. No random nation based limits like the US somehow has.

should we be looking to Japan for advice on how to grow an economy?

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#414
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this comment is a little bit reductive and conspiratorial, even if it gets first-order correlations correct. You don’t need a conspiracy, you just need a philosophy of small government and low regulation to let grifts expand through the financial parts of the economy. The history of financial regulation in the US is the banking industry finding new ways to evade regulation, which lead to moral hazards and pri…

To add to this point: We can look to China to see that the financialization of the economy, like it happened in the US, is not a natural law but can instead be restricted. China has explicitly said that they see the development of financial markets in the US as a problem for the US economy they decidedly aim to avoid. Stories like what happened to Jack Ma have to be interpreted in that context, I think. In my reading…

People like to forget China was aggressively combating financialization [1] long before Jack Ma was forced to step down. Ant financials ambitions were an absolute disaster in the making [2].

I still remember my wife casually mentioning, back in 2019 or something (well before Evergrande), that China was restricting property speculation. Prohibiting folks from taking out loans on third properties etc. As an Australian this was mind blowing to me, property speculation is a sacred religion there.

I far from agree with their politics on social matters, but their financial regulators aren't asleep at the wheel and haven't been regulatory captured.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_red_lines

2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2020/11/16/why-ch...

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is basically an argument that China should become more like North Korea rather than the other way around. Reality is that remittances and the skills that emigrants eventually bring back to their home country far exceeds any negative effects. Policymakers know this which is why they don't deter this from happening. In many countries they actively encourage it, such as is Philippines. When economists talk about "n…

> This is basically an argument that China should become more like North Korea rather than the other way around. How exactly? I’m no pro-China advocate (I’m Australian and live with the mixed outcomes of our ties with China, and I have no strong feelings about what Australia or the US should do with respect to China or anyone else). But (leaving aside arguments about their “true” motives and assuming good faith), Chi…

Because China allows brain drain, seeing it as an eventual source of innovation, but North Korea doesn't. Building walls to keep people in doesn't work. There are many industries in China that only happened because of brain drain. If they followed your argument and stopped people from leaving like North Korea, all those industries wouldn't exist and they'd be a poorer country. Their missile program wouldn't exist or would be much weaker. Many such examples.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#416

Going back to a gold standard will limit the money supply. This means that there will be less capital for building $thing. A gold standard means that when the economy gets overheated it pops, then contracts and you get deflation. This makes crashes last longer and harder. It requires greater fiscal discipline to overcome. The problem with the USA "empire" is that for a trading empire to work you need a plan, and stic…

[dead]

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#417
post #196

>It kicks the can further down the road of poverty, basically embraces socialism Ah yes, the US, famously under a socialist regime currently.

You won't believe this, but it looks like people who were born into a tiny window of opportunities to make large personal wealth out of thin air don't have a sane grasp on capitalism and socialism.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#418
Protectionist polices can serve countries well. A lovely example is South Korea's entertainment industry (they prohibited displaying foreign cinema, and the resulting need to produce domestic cinema lead to them developing a strong and independent entertainment industry, examples: squid game, train to busan, etc...)

It looks to me like the countries in the pie charts are ones with protectionism (e.g., China), while you are seem to be implicitly advocating for the opposite...

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#419
post #400
post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That takes planning, money vision and time. And a dictatorship. Democracy does not fit very well with long term plans, unless you either make huge efforts to ensure everyone gets their fair share (see Scandinavia) or you have a good plan for people being rich with not too much effort (see Switzerland and other tax havens). Concerning the USA, the divide between the extra rich and the general poor is nowadays too la…

income inequality today is about the same as it was 100 years ago. https://ourworldindata.org/how-has-income-inequality-within-...

What happened in 1929?

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#420
post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That takes planning, money vision and time. And a dictatorship. Democracy does not fit very well with long term plans, unless you either make huge efforts to ensure everyone gets their fair share (see Scandinavia) or you have a good plan for people being rich with not too much effort (see Switzerland and other tax havens). Concerning the USA, the divide between the extra rich and the general poor is nowadays too la…

>And a dictatorship. Democracy does not fit very well with long term plans Say again? If we're talking strictly about the United States as per the article that inspired this post, the U.S. is a case study of a prosperous, remarkably stable democracy steadily increasing its prosperity, wealth, influence and power while also for the vast majority of its history investing for the long term and in vital infrastructure. T…

In the US of 50 years ago, democracy was protected by codes of conduct, honor, and most importantly, strong content moderation in the form of monopolistic legacy media. All of this went out the door with the rise of social networks and the demise of legacy media. I don't see how democracy has the tools to survive populists with direct connection to the voting public. Even if elections happen in 2028, there's a good chance the pendulum will swing the other way and instead of thinking about moving forward we'll be locked in left/right destructive cycles, with the resulting purging of institutions, dramatic shifts in policies and just chaos all around.
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