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I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

411–420 of 430 posts

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#411
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume that in-the-money options are automatically exercised at expiration in the dead-man situation?

Yes, they will automatically exercise if your dead, the same way they auto execute when you are alive. I have sold many options over the years, with many of them exercising. If they expire ITM, you don't have a choice (whether dead or alive) past expiration.

Thank you for the confirmation!

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#412
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

even if they were a beacon of truth, they were active market participant and would stand to benefit if the markets do react to their report.

how large businesses get away with things is true across markets and the precedence set let them be more fearless to keep committing them.

the reporting through the publication has an important place, but playing the market at the same time personally gets rid of any credibility.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#413
post #320
post #241

I have lost literally hundreds of thousands of $ trying to short obvious frauds and scams. I have made all that back and more by instead going long things that are cheap + growing. Being a bear pays off 1% of the time, and the act of trying to time it actually changes the window so just be an optimist and get rich.

What information sources do you use to find the cheap + growing things?

Usually big established companies that've been unfairly beaten down and financials don't have any red flags. I look at social chat/analyst chat also but mostly only to see if/how many people/bots are talking not really to see what they are saying.

For example, I hold oversized bags of Boeing, Pfizer, and Google right now (these are new-ish positions ~3-4m in)

If I'm wrong, I try to get out asap. If I'm right, I try to never sell.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be surprised if Adani just asked "How much money will you make in your life time?" And just offered the same to close the firm.

He might have offered, but doubt these guys would have taken it up. There's something different about these short sellers and the typical ones we've had in the past (Soros, Chanos, Ackman, etc.).

Yes, doubtful with the US investigation going on on Adani.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trading fees are at or near zero in the US now unless you mean capital gains.

The explicit fees are near zero, but if you watch your trade you always get an adverse price.

what are you talking about. you're not going to fill worse than nbbo

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#416
post #351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Front-running your trade.

nice try buddy, that’s ILLEGAL

Oh no, I guess someone will be going to jail!

...No? Then, uh, a punitive judgment?

>Small fine that amounts to a cost-of-doing-business.

Ah. Hm.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#417
post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. Trevor Milton, the Nikola Motors fraudster CEO will be out after a laughable four years. That's a complete joke.

Do you think he wouldn't do what he had done if the punishment for getting caught would've been worse?

When people see Milton getting locked up for four years, it's in no way proportional to the upside of making out with thousands of lifetimes worth of average honest work. If others who had done similar crimes before him had received more severe punishments he may have chosen not to.

That's not to mention the court's complete lack of concern for recidivism. Look at Bill Hwang. Slapped on the wrist for insider trading -> billions of dollars of later economic damage. Likely chance we'll see the same pattern of behavior from Milton. I'm generally for forgiveness and second chances, but not in the realm of steering thousands of lifetimes worth of honest economic influence.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#418
post #201
post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've done it repeatedly over the past ten years while DCA'ing. I basically made my own custom funds with 5-10 stocks, set daily purchases for a specific amount, and didn't think about it. Unfortunately I didn't invest enough each time for the amount to be significant, and I also stopped DCA'ing as soon as I couldn't resist checking, saw that I had reached or was approaching a 10% loss in my overall DCA portfolio, and…

Well, also the market has done almost nothing but go up over the last 10 years, correct?

No, I went under significantly multiple times, including 80%+ losses that eventually reversed on some. Though these dips wouldn't have been as drastic if I had not stopped DCA purchases.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#419
post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you described is how you bet against retail traders. The bet is that they have no edge so it’s safe to run tight spreads and nice pure market making algos that assume random behavior at volume.

Feels weird to call it a 'bet against' when the other side can (potentially) benefit from the tighter spread you offer. But yes, the market maker doesn't run the risk of trading with someone with knowledge and a lot of capital to apply it.

Yeah, I don’t like the phrase either, but market making in these pools is quite literally taking the other side of their trades.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#420

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, this is one of the counterintuitive things about people paying RH for order flow. Market makers can offer tighter spreads when they know it’s a pool of dumb money.

tighter spreads are not zero spreads

What’s your point? The spreads are tighter than you would get on the open market.

NBBO requires that if there is something better that Robinhood gives it to you.

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