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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

cnn.com

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Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#411

Post by XorNot »

Demiurge wrote: post #403
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's exactly how the Russians perceive the EU. They are perceived as weak Europe has been weak. The difference is Russia is weak while trying its hardest. Europe is weak because it can't bother to try. > That might look like a "power move" by Germany but it looks absolutely weak in the eyes of Putin Nobody considers condemnations power moves. Also, Putin's track record in reading who's too weak to do what doesn't…

How is it trying its hardest when it hasn’t declared a full scale mobilization, hasn’t closed its borders, or switched to war time economy?

Russia is absolutely in a full war time economy at the moment. There's nothing left to squeeze out of it and they're headed for a meltdown in 2025/2026.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#412

Post by rrr_oh_man »

fuoqi wrote: post #130

Looks like a pretty transparent hint on how response to the recent US/UK/France permission to use long-range missiles against the Russian territory could look like. The Nord Stream sabotage has opened Pandora's box almost exactly how it was predicted in Cryptonomicon.

> The Nord Stream sabotage has opened Pandora's box almost exactly how it was predicted in Cryptonomicon.

Can you elaborate?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#413

Post by [deleted] »

gorbachev wrote: post #299
Etheryte wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a misleading framing. The two cables last year were not taken out by an anchor as an accident, it was literally a ship putting down its anchor just before the cable and then dragging it over the cable. In other words, sabotage. There's no point in trying to color any of this with rose tinted glasses when it's clear who's done it and why.

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#415

Post by rrr_oh_man »

rdtsc wrote: post #340
tmnvix wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask yourself, when was the last time a nation officially declared war? It doesn't happen anymore for legal reasons. NATO will 100% not be the first to declare war despite even very serious provocations. Maybe they'll take a leaf out of Russia or Israel's book and declare a 'special' or 'limited' operation though...

> NATO will 100% not be the first to declare war despite even very serious provocations. But if it doesn't declare war, it now looks weak. That article 5 isn't worth very much all of the sudden. At the same time it's stupid to start WW3 over a village in the Baltics, a town in Romania, a cut cable or a few blown up warehouses. The Russians took the same "red line" idea and are playing it against the NATO and the EU.…

> But if it doesn't declare war, it now looks weak.

Turns out looks and optics are much less important than money and munitions.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#416

Post by XorNot »

lxgr wrote: post #362
willy_k wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would relatively cheap AI-piloted satellite connected ships with sensor equipment work as a solution?

I doubt it. It seems to be a similar problem to missile defense: When you have a lot of ground to cover and can only be in one place at a time, the defender will always be at a huge cost disadvantage compared to the attacker. That's only in one/two dimensions – add a third (submarines) and the cost imbalance shifts even more. And even if it works, this will only give attackers pause that are deterred by attribution.

Basically if mass produced something makes defense "cheap" it likely makes offense even cheaper.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#417

Post by gnabgib »

onionisafruit wrote: post #410
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not exactly in the interests of NATO to have those ships start spilling tons of oil in the North Atlantic Since when did engine troubles cause an oil spill?

Ever blown a head gasket?

Bit of a personal question

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#418

Post by sho »

rrr_oh_man wrote: post #412
fuoqi wrote: post #130

Looks like a pretty transparent hint on how response to the recent US/UK/France permission to use long-range missiles against the Russian territory could look like. The Nord Stream sabotage has opened Pandora's box almost exactly how it was predicted in Cryptonomicon.

> The Nord Stream sabotage has opened Pandora's box almost exactly how it was predicted in Cryptonomicon. Can you elaborate?

“This is the new balance of power, Randy."

"You can't seriously be telling me that governments are threatening to--"

"The Chinese have already done it. They cut an older cable--first-generation optical fiber--joining Korea to Nippon. The cable wasn't that important--they only did it as a warning shot. And what's the rule of thumb about governments cutting submarine cables?"

"That it's like nuclear war," Randy says. "Easy to start. Devastating in its results. So no one does it."

"But if the Chinese have cut a cable, then other governments with a vested interest in throttling information flow can say, 'Hey, the Chinese did it, we need to show that we can retaliate in kind.' "

"Is that actually happening?"

"No, no, no!" Avi says. They've stopped in front of the largest display of needlenose pliers Randy has ever seen. "It's all posturing. It's not aimed at other governments so much as at the entrepreneurs who own and operate the new cables.”

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#419

Post by XorNot »

bell-cot wrote: post #40
toss1 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because it is not publicized does not mean it is not happening. Most military operations do not take along journalists, and are not reported to the press. Some are even secret. That said, there is a limited amount that can be done in international waters without creating an international incident. Law Of The Seas, Freedom Of Navigation, etc.. It is to our advantage for example, when we want to prevent CCP's from…

> They can field more "research" vessels than... Back during the cold war, there was very often a Soviet "fishing boat" trailing after any substantial US Navy fleet. Said fishing boat may have had far more antennas than any fisherman would expect, but far less interest in catching fish. Fast forward - what would be the cost of having cheap western drones hanging around nearby, when suspected Russian assets were close…

Fuel costs I suspect, which is where those continuous flight high altitude solar powered planes NASA was experimenting with really come into play.

That said, satellite tracking shipping is pretty easy - It's interdicting ina timely fashion which is not.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#420

Post by carabiner »

threeseed wrote: post #335
keskival wrote: post #256

And also the cable between Lithuania and Sweden: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/18/telecoms-cable...

And also Ireland escorted a Russian spy ship away from their cables: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-sh...

A disruption in communications can mean only one thing: invasion.
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