Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

bloomberg.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

411–420 of 622 posts

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#411

Post by slashdave »

limaoscarjuliet wrote: post #211
senko wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. The scaling laws may be dead. Does this mean the end of LLM advances? Absolutely not. There are many different ways to improve LLM capabilities. Everyone was mostly focused on the scaling laws because that worked extremely well (actually surprising most of the researchers). But if you're keeping an eye on the scientific papers coming out about AI, you've seen the astounding amount of research going on with some v…

Scaling laws are not dead. The number of people predicting death of Moore's law doubles every two years. - Jim Keller https://www.youtube.com/live/oIG9ztQw2Gc?si=oaK2zjSBxq2N-zj1...

Moore's law is doomed. At some point you start reaching the level of individual atoms. This is just physics.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#412

Post by slashdave »

iandanforth wrote: post #47

A few important things to remember here: The best engineering minds have been focused on scaling transformer pre and post training for the last three years because they had good reason to believe it would work, and it has up until now. Progress has been measured against benchmarks which are / were largely solvable with scale. There is another emerging paradigm which is still small(er) scale but showing remarkable res…

> Tesla are all making rapid progress on functionality

The lack of progress with self driving seems to indicate that Tesla has a serious problem with scaling. The investment in enormous compute resources is another red flag (if you run out of ideas, just use brute force). This points to a fundamental flaw in model architecture.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#413

Post by Lonestar1440 »

LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

No, we have not even scratched the surface of what current-gen LLMs can do for an organization which puts the correct data into them.

If indeed the "GPT 5!" Arms race has calmed down, it should help everyone focus on the possible, their own goals, and thus what AI capabilities to deploy.

Just as there won't be a "Silver Bullet" next gen model, the point about Correct Data In is also crucial. Nothing is 'free' not even if you pay a vendor or integrator. You, the decision making organization, must dedicate focus to putting data into your new AI systems or not.

It will look like the dawn of original IBM, and mechanical data tabulation, in retrospect once we learn how to leverage this pattern to its full potential.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#414

Post by hamburga »

LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

I think there's a ton to be tapped based on the current state of the art.

As a developer, I'm making much more progress using the SOTA (Claude 3.5) as a Socratic interrogator. I'm brainstorming a project, give it my current thoughts, and then ask it to prompt me with good follow-up questions and turn general ideas into a specific, detailed project plan, next steps, open questions, and work log template. Huge productivity boost, but definitely not replacing me as an engineer. I specifically prompt it to not give me solutions, but rather, to just ask good questions.

I've also used Claude 3.5 as (more or less) a free arbitrator. Last week, I was in a disagreement with a colleague, who was clearly being disingenuous by offering to do something she later reneged on, and evading questions about follow up. Rather than deal with organizational politics, I sent the transcript to Claude for an unbiased evaluation, and it "objectively" confirmed what had been frustrating me. I think there's a huge opportunity here to use these things to detect and call out obviously antisocial behavior in organizations (my CEO is intrigued, we'll see where it goes). Similarly, in our legal system, as an ultra-low-cost arbitrator or judge for minor disputes (that could of course be appealed to human judges). Seems like the level of reasoning in Claude 3.5 is good enough for that.

My mental model is always "low-risk search". https://muldoon.cloud/2023/10/29/ai-commandments.html

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#416

Post by soheil »

LASR wrote: post #115

Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…

We have not exhausted what html can do either. LLMs not getting smarter is orthogonal to its currently unexplored search space.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#417

Post by avs733 »

Dr_Birdbrain wrote: post #415

I don’t know how to square this with the recent statement by Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) on the Lex Fridman podcast saying that in his opinion the scaling hypothesis still has plenty of room to run.

Hype gonna hype. I’m not saying he is wrong I’m saying his opinion would be the same whether it’s true or not because his value depends on it being his opinion.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#418

Post by simonw »

niobe wrote: post #395
simonw wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right. I've been saying for a while that if all LLM development stopped entirely and we were stuck with the models we have right now (GPT-4o, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Llama 3.1/2, Qwen 2.5 etc) we could still get multiple years worth of advances just out of those existing models. There is SO MUCH we haven't figured out about how to use them yet.

> There is SO MUCH we haven't figured out about how to use them yet. I mean, it's pretty clear to me they're a potentially great human-machine interface, but trying to make LLMs - in their current fundamental form - a reliable computational tool.. well, at best it's an expensive hack, but it's just not the right tool for the job. I expect the next leap forward will require some orthogonal discovery and lead to a diff…

One of the biggest challenges in learning how to use and build on LLMs is figuring out how to work productively with a technology that - unlike most computers - is inherently unreliable and non-deterministic.

It's possible, but it's not at all obvious and requires a slightly skewed way of looking at them.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#419

Post by ChildOfChaos »

polskibus wrote: post #119

In other news, Altman said AGI is coming next year https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/sam-altman-claims-agi-i...

There contract with Microsoft allows them to break it when they achieve AGI but doesn't fully define it.

Watch this be a power move to break from Microsofts investment when ready rather than true agi. Sam is laying the foundations here.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#420

Post by nomendos »

nomendos wrote: post #157

"Eureka"!? At the very early phase of the boom I was among a very few who knew and predicted this (usually most free and deep thinking/knowledgeable). Then my prediction got reinforced by the results. One of the best examples was with one of my experiments that all today's AI's failed to solve tree serialization and de-serialization in each of the DFS(pre-order/in-order/post-order) or BFS(level-order) which is 8 algo…

To clarify, in summary so far LLM's can do a bit more than the inputs used for training. Example https://dynomight.net/chess/ as well as some coding solutions are a bit better than each input alone, although if the solution requires more than "a bit more" then LLMs start to hallucinate (spin the wheels). Time will tell if LLM's can jump this "a bit more" barrier? (I can not tell for sure yet, but the current knowledge and my NL tells me if I'd have to put a bet, it would be that the new approach/design is needed)
Post reply on HN