411–420 of 443 posts
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Revenue isn't profit. They're burning money at an impressive rate: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt... I wouldn't even be surprised if they were losing money on paying ChatGPT users on inference compute alone, and that isn't even factoring in the development of new models. There was an interesting article here (can't find the link unfortunately) that was arguing that model training costs s…
I think this might be the article you mentioned https://benn.substack.com/p/do-ai-companies-work
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> If you don't trust ASI, your only option is to prevent it from existing to begin with. I don't understand this sentence. I don't trust Generative AI because it often spits out false, inaccurate or made up answers, but I don't believe my "only option is to prevent it from existing".
ASI by definition will be all-powerful or close to it. What are you gonna do if it comes into existence? Because if you don't trust it, you're fucked: - Your attempts to limit its influence on your life will be effective only if the ASI decides to willfully ignore or not notice you. - If it lies or not, there's nothing you can really do. The outcome it wants is practically guaranteed regardless. It will be running ci…
That's a huge assumption.
AI in SF: all-powerful all-controlling abstract entity.
AI in reality: LLMs on thousands of servers with GPUs, operated and controlled by engineers, gated by a startup masquerading as a non-profit and operating for years at a loss, with a web interface and an API, fragile enough that it becomes unavailable at times.
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A private pre-IPO investment is a bet on where OpenAI will be 10 years from now, not where they are now.
Yes, but they generally shoot for 5-10x. So they are betting on OpenAI growing gross revenue like 20x assuming their costs stay the same.
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Another POV is that, how many new household names familiar to adults can you think of? Since 2015? Basically TikTok and ChatGPT. If you include kids you get Fortnite, Snapchat and Roblox. Do you see why this is such a big deal?
Moviepass was a new tech driven household name in my social circle back in 2017. It... didn't end well.
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True, but there isn’t really a moat for text LLMs. Llama is open source, Gemini is basically free.
define "moat", Open source search engines and competitive scraping strategies were built in the early 2000s. The Google search moat has always been that they were better for 5-6 years - and then they were the default. Once they were the default option, they merely had to be the "same" as other options. If someone were to make a 1:1 clone of google with ~5% fewer ads - I do not believe they would break get a substanti…
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ASI by definition will be all-powerful or close to it. What are you gonna do if it comes into existence? Because if you don't trust it, you're fucked: - Your attempts to limit its influence on your life will be effective only if the ASI decides to willfully ignore or not notice you. - If it lies or not, there's nothing you can really do. The outcome it wants is practically guaranteed regardless. It will be running ci…
> ASI by definition will be all-powerful or close to it. That's a huge assumption. AI in SF: all-powerful all-controlling abstract entity. AI in reality: LLMs on thousands of servers with GPUs, operated and controlled by engineers, gated by a startup masquerading as a non-profit and operating for years at a loss, with a web interface and an API, fragile enough that it becomes unavailable at times.
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Do you want to know how much traffic OpenAI has pulled off Google in the past two years? Because it's not pretty lol. It's definitely single percentage points if not less than a percent (can't remember the exact numbers). They're a rounding error compared to Google.
Is there a source for this data? I personally always use ChatGPT over Google.
Love the use of the personal anecdote to refute my point BTW.
Funny that they will call syntactically correct word vectors trained on reddit comments "AGI". There is no "self learning", just chaining outputs trained on different .txt instruction sets. There has never been a better time to have human intelligence and apply it to fields that are moving towards making critical decisions based on latent space probability maps. NLP and Human-Computer Interaction however are fields t…
Think you need to read up what transformers actually do (they refine syntactically, semantically and whatever additional way you wish) and what emergent properties they have.
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The hardware required is the same, just in different amounts. It’s less (gross) expensive for inference, since it takes less time, but the cost of that time (per second) is the same as training.
Obviously, that's my point. We can do the math. GPT-4o can emit about 70 tokens a second. API pricing is $10/million for output tokens and $2.5/million for input tokens. Assuming a workload where inputs tokens are 10:1 with output tokens, and that I can generate continuous load (constantly generating tokens). I'll end up paying $210/day in API fees, or $76,650 in a year. Let's assume the hardware required to service…
It's not unusual for a startup to not be profitable, and they're obviously not as the company doesn't make a profit, but I'm not sure why isolating one aspect of their business and declaring it profitable would justify the idea that this company is inevitably a good investment "even if the company went defunct tomorrow".
Perhaps you meant "win" in the sense of "being influential" or something, but I'm pretty sure the people who invested billions of dollars use definitions that involve more concrete returns on their investment.