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Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

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Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#411

Post by bbarn »

Areading314 wrote: post #406
bagels wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, the heat pump will reduce energy use to maybe 1/3 of a gas furnace, but natural gas is something like 6x cheaper for the same amount of energy, so it is an expensive folly. If California is serious about this, they need to reign in the utilities to reduce prices and or stop the attacks on solar installation.

Solar isn't a useful source of energy for heating in California, since the demand is almost entirely during winter mornings/evenings where the sun is down.

Solar with Battery storage is a very useful source for heating energy, even in the coldest climates in CA. Even in the mountains where it drops below freezing at night, most places it's still sunny a lot more than the US average during the day. Most Battery setups I know of target a 4 day stretch of cloud cover for storage capacity, so it is certainly an option.

Where I live at 7000 feet, we have so much sunshine, even in winter, solar is a very viable option. Legislation removing people's ability to recoup the costs is the only reason it's not in every house in the city. The only option left is a much more costly battery setup.

Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#412

Post by freetime2 »

bamboozled wrote: post #378
freetime2 wrote: post #347

I hear a lot of horror stories on HN every time the subject of heat pumps comes up. Things like high costs, units not defrosting properly in winter, etc. Most of these stories tend to be for central air conditioning units. I think that mini-splits could be a much better introduction to heat pumps for a lot of folks. They are cheap, easy to install, and the units in my house have been running 12 years as our only sour…

I run mine in a similar climate to what you’re describing. Air based, not ground or water. Absolutely zero problems at all. Either I have some magic heat pump or a lot of the horror stories are overblown or based on using out of date technology.

I also suspect that the heat pumps may be undersized relative to the home’s heating needs, particularly in older homes that are not well insulated.

Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#413

Post by JeremyPOsborne »

ghufran_syed wrote: post #318
readingnews wrote: post #86

I just replaced a furnace... everyone I called for a quote would not touch a heat pump with a 20foot pole, or they wanted prices that were 2X what a separate furnace and AC would cost to install. It was very strange. This is the second home where I had this experience.. basically, they really did not want to install it. I ended up going with gas as no local person would install/warranty a heat pump, or, it was priced…

I’m in Northern california, I just got a heat pump installed by these guys: https://www.heliosclimate.io/ - a YC company btw, for those who think they just fund consumer apps :) Overall it was a great experience, there were some minor issues immediately after installation that got dealt with quickly and efficiently. I think the list price was similar to what you were quoted, but in northern california (menlo park, pe…

Thank you Ghufran! It was great working with you. -- Jeremy from Helios

Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#414

Post by interroboink »

newZWhoDis wrote: post #368
oooyay wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I made this mistake this year. I pumped $20k into a heat pump system, coming from what used to be Natural Gas. I wasn't given any kind of relief because I live in Oregon where most relief is income based. Then at the beginning of the year PGE announced a 20% rate hike. My house is covered in trees, so solar isn't really an option. I really regretted my decision once I got a $300-$400 bill for heating three mont…

$20k for a heat pump is sky high, you better have gotten a 24 SEER2 state of the art fully variable system for that. If they sold you a 14 SEER1 for that then you got absolutely screwed.

Perhaps you know already, but a lot of the price is often the installation labor, not the device itself.

Just as a data point, $20K is right in the ballpark for estimates you'll get for professional installation of a modern ≈3-ton forced-air 17SEER heatpump + air handler in the Seattle area.

Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#415

Post by Retric »

Aloha wrote: post #372
Retric wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the continental US you get ~2x the heat from burning natural gas in a combined cycle turbine to run a heat pump than you would from using a high efficiency gas furnace. The market price of electricity vs gas varies quite a bit through time and various distortions of the market. Currently gas is cheap, but you want to compare historical averages when buying something that lasts 15+ years not simply look at current…

I don't think your math adds up. Combined cycle is like at most 70% efficient, subtract 10% of distribution, you end up with 60%. At 50f my 5T heat pump takes 6.6 kWh to generate 50,000 BTU. 6 kWh of energy takes 71cf of gas to make - accounting for transmission and generation losses. 71cf of gas will make 71,000 BTU of heat, assuming an 80% efficiency furnace, that comes out to 56,000 BTU usable. Yes a heat pump wil…

Replace your heat pump? People installing new heat pumps are going to see much higher efficiency.

50,000 BTU = 5.27528 * 10 ^ 7 J = 14.6 kWh / 6.6 kWh = COP of 2.2 at 50f which is absolutely terrible. Modern heat pumps should have a COP around 4 at those temperatures and 3 near freezing.

Also, “Subtracting 10%” would mean your grid losses are 17%. “annual electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) losses averaged about 5% of the electricity transmitted and distributed in the United States in 2018 through 2022.” So, (70% * (1 - 5%)) = 66.5%, but resistive losses are reduced in the cold. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=105&t=3

4 * 0.665 = 2.66x though obviously what matters here is the annual average COP. (3 * 0.665) = 1.995 aka 2.

Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#416

Post by mullingitover »

lazide wrote: post #407
CaliforniaKarl wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for posting that. Although the cost of electricity is important, when deciding on using a heat pump for heat, the big question is the cost of electricity for heating, relative to the cost of the fuel you are already using (natural gas, propane, oil, etc.). It's definitely annoying to calculate! Since a heat pump's efficiency can vary with the outside temperature, it takes a bit of work to estimate your pote…

Also cost of capital for installing the heat pump, if a new installation.

To me the heat was a freebie. I installed it for the AC, wasn't expecting to use it for heat at all.

Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#417

Post by stephen_g »

GloriousKoji wrote: post #193
burkaman wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's now more expensive to fuel a vehicle with electricity than gas This is very hard to believe, what are you paying for electricity? California gas prices are also way above the national average at the moment. Here's a per-state comparison from last year, I'm sure it's a bit out of date but I doubt things have completed flipped in a single year: https://energyinnovation.org/2023/07/27/ev-fill-up-savings/

I live in the Bay Area California and get electricity from PG&E. I use a minimal amount of electricity and I paid 43 cents/kWh last month. Gas from Costco is $4/gal right now. I have a plugin-hybrid which does 4miles/kwh and 45mpg or in terms of money: 9.3miles/$ on electricity and 11.25gas-miles/$ on gasoline. But maybe you don't actually care about fuel efficiency, then you have an argument that it's cheaper to fue…

That’s astonishingly cheap for petrol, wow. We’re paying at least four times in my country minimum…

Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#418

Post by gnicholas »

jrockway wrote: post #388
secabeen wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can still maintain the infrastructure with base fees In theory yes, but the grid has not used properly scoped base fees to pay for infrastructure. Delivery costs of power are more than half the total cost; to get to a base+generation model, you'd probably see monthly connection fees for Electricity in the $100+ range for many Americans.

I don't think there's any obligation for people's financial trickery to be sustainable. Like, a new power pole costs (say) $1000 regardless of how many watts are going through the wires attached to it. Someone has to pay the person that cut down the tree and hauled it to its final location money. That they loan you money on the infrastructure and you repay through using electricity isn't the actual cost model, it's j…

Comcast quoted rates in this range for installations in areas near Palo Alto. IIRC my friend was quoted $20k for the installation. She might have gone for it if they'd charged $5/mo after that, but of course Comcast wouldn't be so kind. Last I heard, she was still on AT&T copper. Hopefully Starlink will be able to help people like this, who are just outside the reach of existing wired internet.

Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#419

Post by thsksbd »

gregwebs wrote: post #262
bagels wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, the heat pump will reduce energy use to maybe 1/3 of a gas furnace, but natural gas is something like 6x cheaper for the same amount of energy, so it is an expensive folly. If California is serious about this, they need to reign in the utilities to reduce prices and or stop the attacks on solar installation.

There are second order effects from natural gas use in an actual furnace that aren't taken into account in price of energy comparisons. A furnace has to either 1) exhaust out air initially drawn from the house which must be replaced by cold outdoor air coming into the house (this requires more heating of the house) 2) take in fresh cold air for combustion and exhaust that (which requires extra energy to heat up the c…

But that's negligible. I'd calculate it, but i have 102 fever

Re: Nine US states are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps

#420

Post by ssuds »

ghufran_syed wrote: post #318
readingnews wrote: post #86

I just replaced a furnace... everyone I called for a quote would not touch a heat pump with a 20foot pole, or they wanted prices that were 2X what a separate furnace and AC would cost to install. It was very strange. This is the second home where I had this experience.. basically, they really did not want to install it. I ended up going with gas as no local person would install/warranty a heat pump, or, it was priced…

I’m in Northern california, I just got a heat pump installed by these guys: https://www.heliosclimate.io/ - a YC company btw, for those who think they just fund consumer apps :) Overall it was a great experience, there were some minor issues immediately after installation that got dealt with quickly and efficiently. I think the list price was similar to what you were quoted, but in northern california (menlo park, pe…

Shreyas here, one of the co-founders of Helios.

So great to have you as a customer! We're stoked we were able to help you ditch natural gas and decrease your carbon footprint.

Menlo park (and much of the peninsula) are such a no brainer for heat pumps. Like you mentioned, ~$5500 in incentives plus interest free financing can net to almost no out-of-pocket costs for most homeowners in San Mateo County. Many contractors aren't as familiar with heat pumps, and their quotes are often so expensive that it doesn't make economic sense to fuel switch. We are focused on offering affordable heat pump installations that have a positive ROI for homeowners.

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