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The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

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Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#411

Post by phlipski »

notch656c wrote: post #266
phlipski wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

By your logic every single house in Florida (and those along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts that are in the path of possible hurricanes) that was built prior to 2002 (the year the building codes were changed in direct response to Hurricane Andrew in 1992) needs to be razed. I'm not sure that's really politically feasible...

My logic is the entitled fucks that vote for this policy should be made to eat their own medicine. Either it's OK to have a house without the safety criteria in the code, or it isn't. Forcing them to eat their own medicine would allow the youth to also have the chance to build a house, even if it's not perfectly safe, closer to the cost their parents had to spend. Rather than changing the game and screwing over new e…

So are we as a society not supposed to take advantage of learning from past mistakes? 100 years ago we flushed raw sewage into rivers and streams. Then we learned that sewage wrecks our water supply and also our health so we started to treat the sewage. I'm struggling to understand your angry and bitter tone. I guess if we lived in a true libertarian society then we should/could let anyone build whatever they want along the coastline because society wouldn't be tasked with shouldering the cost of poor individual planning. But that's not the reality we live in.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#412

Post by goodSteveramos »

mindslight wrote: post #344
harvey9 wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's both, at different market segments. Four yuppies (who are sometimes skilled visa-holders) sharing a higher end place, or four less well-off sharers (who are sometimes illegal migrants).

Sure, but it's a bit odd to direct focus at immigrants when it's many different market segments. If anything, immigrants are generally more willing to live poorer with traditional gender roles, having children in spite of the extractive economic conditions. It's the native born who put it off waiting for the right time.

The purpose of a state is not to bring in foreigners to replace the native population. It even rises to a low level UN definition of genocide when the native population is not allowed to express its disapproval of that policy.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#413

Post by jewayne »

marcusverus wrote: post #404
jewayne wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Only in my lifetime have we attempted to limit movement across that border. But because certain media outlets use the language of war and invasion to describe the peaceful migration of people from country to country, the followers of said outlets have decided that we are, in fact, at war with these people. When in fact they're the same people who mow our lawns and wash our dishes every time we eat out. smh

> But because certain media outlets use the language of war and invasion to describe the peaceful migration of people from country to country, the followers of said outlets have decided that we are, in fact, at war with these people. I guess pretending the issue is just some kind of Fox News conspiracy theory is easier than actually understanding it? People use the language of "invasion" for a reason. In Texas, non-h…

Wow, I did Nazi that coming.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#414

Post by slt2021 »

wil421 wrote: post #399
RetpolineDrama wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well I hope you plan to move/sell, in my opinion PEX will be banned in 20 years and you'll have a hard time selling without remediation. PEX is absolutely loaded with carcinogenic compounds and endocrine disruptors that actively leech into your water, especially if you have a hot water recirculation system (standard/code on new homes) >After the tenth pin hole leak and lots of shark bite fixes, I am not fond of coppe…

> Phthalate exposure from drinking water via cPVC or PEX is low when compared to other dietary sources. Nonetheless, a shift from cPVC to PEX pipes in households would decrease potential exposure to phthalates.[1] Almost everything I drink out of is lined with plastic. Milk or juice containers, water bottles, and most reusable on the go cups are made of plastics or have a plastic liner. [1] https://hero.epa.gov/hero/…

food packaging plastics are short lived (time from packaging to consumption is But long-term plastics in tubing are exposed continuously to heat (hot water) and will start falling apart and leech chemicals, because they are exposed over long-term

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#415

Post by SpeedilyDamage »

marcusverus wrote: post #404
jewayne wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep. Only in my lifetime have we attempted to limit movement across that border. But because certain media outlets use the language of war and invasion to describe the peaceful migration of people from country to country, the followers of said outlets have decided that we are, in fact, at war with these people. When in fact they're the same people who mow our lawns and wash our dishes every time we eat out. smh

> But because certain media outlets use the language of war and invasion to describe the peaceful migration of people from country to country, the followers of said outlets have decided that we are, in fact, at war with these people. I guess pretending the issue is just some kind of Fox News conspiracy theory is easier than actually understanding it? People use the language of "invasion" for a reason. In Texas, non-h…

Can you elaborate on what's wrong with, "In Texas, non-hispanic whites make up ~30% of births[0], but accounted for only 5% of the population growth[1]?"

I think it'd be awesome if we all had to learn Spanish in some parts of the US. What a boon for cultural diversity that would be! The exchange of ideas would be so good for our shared society.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#416

Post by eagleinparadise »

karaterobot wrote: post #282
ryanwaggoner wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC, during Covid there were only something like half a dozen elevator inspections for the entire state of CA. The source below says there was 15 in 2019. If your elevator inspection is 2 months late... guess what, your project is going to be late. I couldn't believe this is true, so I actually read the article. Turns out, it's not true. It's multiple orders of magnitude off. There were 15 inspectors for the city (n…

Seems like the off the cuff guess about the numbers is wrong, but the actual point they were making remains valid.

IIRC the City of LA actually has its own elevator inspectors, but if I'm not mistaken CA has inspectors that cover the rest of the state. An elevator inspector told me this directly to my face, but it was some time ago so I could be a bit off. But you get the general point I was trying to make.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#417

Post by eagleinparadise »

nocoiner wrote: post #381
eagleinparadise wrote: post #115

CRE guy here. A lot of this "productivity loss" is also due to government related staffing issues and bureaucracy. Most people are describing more complex building codes, so I'll add something new. I had a project that was delayed by over a year during Covid because the city approved incorrect plans, came back and requested revisions, and then lost the physical plans (without us knowing until we checked in asking wha…

When you say the deal will lose money, do you mean that (1) the project’s operating expenses exceed its income, (2) the building can’t be satisfactorily recapped after completion/stabilization, (3) the MOIC at exit will be less than 1.0x, (4) the investor won’t receive their full preferred return or (5) the sponsor won’t earn any promote? I could see any of these as being a way to describe a deal that “loses money.”

I was modeling a 2-3% IRR on aggressive numbers when I last worked on it. It was acquired with a proforma 18% IRR. Whenever it's sold, it's going to return less than 1.0x. Not sure how bad the loss will be.

Even if it is recapped, the deal will require a significant cash-in refinance. If the business plan is saved and it takes you another 4 years to exit at a better number, that 4-yr now 8-yr deal results in say a low single digit IRR. Sponsor makes no money and the project sucks up even more resources & labor. But depends if your capital partner is willing to ride it out and if you can even recap where the numbers work

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#418

Post by eagleinparadise »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #317
mannerheim wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think implicit here > This was almost a year delay and added cost overruns, etc. It also made the required rent higher to recoup those costs and try to be profitable (that deal will lose money). is the 'try to be profitable' that implies they did end up raising rent higher than otherwise planned, but you are right that this isn't necessarily true.

thats fair

We did end up pursuing higher rents than what was "market", unsuccessfully. By setting a lower rent, it meant that a lender or potential buyer would underwrite that income, resulting in significantly lower valuations, making the magnitude of the economics worse. But holding out for higher rents pushes out the business plan and increases the risk of the deal (ie your loan matures and you had no leases in place)

If you can hit the same 10% return on 20% lower revenue... you can attract more capital and execute with a better measure of risk. My point was that the I of ROI increased substantially and we needed to try to hit the rate R of ROI.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#419

Post by nemo44x »

sershe wrote: post #371
nemo44x wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can: - Vinyl windows compared to old growth wood windows from 100 years ago. - Vinyl siding compared to cedar shakes. - Extremely poor wood quality in the lower end 2x4 and 2x6 lumber. - Sheathing that's essentially cardboard in really cheap builds. - Flooring is sad today in cheap to moderate homes. Thing is there were really badly built homes 100 years ago and they just aren't standing any longer. We do get a but…

Vinyl/plastic windows and siding might be used because they are superior basically in every way? They don't rot, don't require almost any maintenance (exterior painting, etc.), windows fit much better and are better insulated, siding is much harder to damage and easier to clean (and also doesn't need paint). Frankly wooden windows are a personal pet peeve of mine. I have old (many decades) wooden windows in my house,…

You don’t know what you’re talking about. Vinyl windows get destroyed by the sun in 5 years or less. They also warp a lot and that nice seal you have is gone in a couple years tops. They are such a bad product with the only redeeming feature being they are cheap.

Wood windows that are clad in aluminum or fiberglass will last 50 years and perform.

Same for siding. Vinyl siding fades from the sun and warps and stops doing its job after a few years and now water is getting in.

There’s a reason only the cheapest construction uses these materials.

Re: The strange and awful path of productivity in the US construction sector

#420

Post by sharemywin »

wmil wrote: post #130
sharemywin wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are undocumented workers factored into the number of employees? I would assume the are excluded from the # of workers in the calculation.

There's no reason they would be excluded. They are getting paid so they'd show up on the books.

most contractors will take cash as payment. some offer discounts. wink wink.
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