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EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

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Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#411

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

chrisco255 wrote: post #93
guidedlight wrote: post #8

Given EV’s should have price parity with ICE by 2025-2027, I think its obvious that EV adoption should accelerate. Unless you are purchasing a very cheap sub-$20k car, EV’s should become the only choice by 2030. https://insideevs.com/news/506465/evs-price-parity-europe-20...

Unless they improve the recharge speed or dramatically improve thr power density, we're gonna have ICEs for a long time. Electric vehicles are not good in cold weather, they so far have not proven themselves to be capable of long haul towing (battery life drops off precipitously while towing), there is not enough charging ports or parking spots for hundreds of millions of cars to recharge, emergency vehicles cannot d…

>there is not enough charging ports or parking spots for hundreds of millions of cars to recharge

Most people drive so little, they could recharge once a week. And I doubt they couldn't do it neither at home, nor the office, nor the supermarket, nor anywhere else.

Stores will do everything to have people charge at their parking. Remember when hotels made people pay for Wifi? I do.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#412

Post by ben_w »

reaperducer wrote: post #183
sandworm101 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More inconvenient facts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Fort_McMurray_wildfire https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7E_OLgC4nV0 88,000 people in perhaps 50,000 vehicles all taking the ONE road out of town. Some kind companies setup fuel trucks by the roadside to top up tanks. Gas delivery can be scaled up and even made portable in an emergency. Had those 50,000 vehicles all been EVs, tens of thousands of people would…

88,000 people in perhaps 50,000 vehicles all taking the ONE road out of town. That's an interesting point. We see this a couple of times a year in the United States — tens, or even hundreds of thousands of people evacuating because of an approaching hurricane. It takes hours and hours and hours to go not very far. And when you finally get someplace with an open hotel room, it's hundreds of miles away. Although I beli…

> Especially since a gas station half-way to safety can fill up hundreds of cars faster than a dozen EVs can charge.

Logistics. A petrol station can fill up any single isolated car or truck really fast, but when the local supply is gone, it can only be returned via a delivery truck (unless I'm very wrong and they have pipes direct to refineries?)

An electric charger can recharge one car battery much slower than a tank can be refilled, but the grid can be approximated as "not running out" over that kind of timescale.

I'm not sure which would be better for mass evacuations in practice, especially given traffic jams are where EVs excel.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#413

Post by DrBazza »

snuxoll wrote: post #132
endisneigh wrote: post #74

I love EVs. That being said I wish someone would make an enclosed bicycle/motorcycle that costs less than $2000. Something like that which can go 30mph and had space for 2 days of groceries would be enough for me to eliminate my car all together. I'm cobbling something similar now with a Class 3 cargo ebike, but rain sucks =/ The idealist in me says that electric ebikes could eliminate most of Americas problems in on…

> Bike infrastructure can be used for walking. Please, no more of this. Bicycles should be on their own dedicated right of way, mixing them with cars is dangerous for cyclists, but mixing bikes with pedestrians is dangerous for pedestrians. Multi-use paths are fine for recreation, but they are not transit infrastructure and should not be treated as such.

Agreed. Cheap and nasty shared pavements for bikes and people in the UK are a nightmare.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#414

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

koheripbal wrote: post #402
parkingrift wrote: post #398

I’m shocked at the number of people paying EV prices. The Model Y is just about the only EV SUV that you can go out and buy right now, and it starts at $68k. The math does not support this price premium. You will not save money. This is before considering that it will cost several thousand to have a charger installed, and to say nothing of the other drawbacks of EV ownership. My prediction is that EV penetration will…

Ownership also doesn't make economic sense. Battery replacement after 10-15 years negates any gas savings in that period. People are just buying the fad. They think they are being green but most that charging power still comes from gas/oil power plants.

>Battery replacement after 10-15 years negates any gas savings in that period.

Bullshit. https://www.geotab.com/fleet-management-solutions/ev-battery...

And these are for 10-year old EV. Battery packs made today won't have to be replace after 15 years, and they'll certainly be used as stationary storage past their time on wheels.

More importantly, most EV will switch to LFP chemistry (already more than half Tesla's vehicles production), which degrades even less.

Other sources:

- https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2021-tesla-impact-report.pdf (p. 67) for Tesla S/X fleet wide results.

- https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat...

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#415

Post by DrBazza »

Arainach wrote: post #249
endisneigh wrote: post #74

I love EVs. That being said I wish someone would make an enclosed bicycle/motorcycle that costs less than $2000. Something like that which can go 30mph and had space for 2 days of groceries would be enough for me to eliminate my car all together. I'm cobbling something similar now with a Class 3 cargo ebike, but rain sucks =/ The idealist in me says that electric ebikes could eliminate most of Americas problems in on…

Nothing should be going 30mph on pedestrian infrastructure. If you want to go 30mph, you're going on real roads with real cars. I own an eBike, love it, and use it to commute, but 20mph is already too much around pedestrians.

Fwiw typical bike speeds are about 12mph Which is the speed of a marathon runner and I wouldn’t want one of those running into me either.

https://www.fetcheveryone.com/blog/3/2022/8/454264

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#416

Post by jtc331 »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #367
caycep wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that being said, I'm wondering why companies don't double down on the BMW i3 model vs. the tesla X/Y/big SUV model? The i3 is 3000 lbs or less, and when it was discontinued, it had a bigger battery pack, and plenty of range and room for a family. In my mind, it's ideal...and it wasn't like there wasn't a market for it, as demand apparently was growing right up until end of production I otherwise agree that American c…

i3 is one of the vehicles that designers thought end user is a "eco freak" vs "normal person". It's pleasant to drive, but extremely ugly.

I don’t know why you’re being downvoted. The i3 styling was clearly distinguished from other BMWs and not in a good way.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#417

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

olivermarks wrote: post #23

EVs are currently more expensive to operate in europe than gasoline powered vehicles due to out of control inflation and geo political supply issues

>EVs are currently more expensive to operate in europe than gasoline powered vehicles

Source?

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#418

Post by benj111 »

audunw wrote: post #397
benj111 wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought EVs still had a 12v battery. Is that not charged via an alternator? I admit it seems more sensible to charge it direct from the battery pack, but then it seems more sensible to me to do away with the 12v battery all together. So if you're going to have a 12v battery it may aswell be completely independent of the main battery pack.

> Is that not charged via an alternator? No, it's generally directly from main battery pack when the car is turned on, or when the car is charging. I would guses some models can also charge it now and then when the car is off, since some models are always connected to a cellular network. > but then it seems more sensible to me to do away with the 12v battery all together. No, no, no.. You need 12V when the car is off…

>but you probably don't want a DC-DC converter running from the main battery all the time. If you have trouble getting power from the main battery, it'll be hard to diagnose.

I don't get this. If the converter stops working the 12v battery dies and your car stops working. I don't get why it would be easier to diagnose if it only charges when on. I assume you're talking about the converter charging the 12v battery? Even if you aren't it would still be simple enough to have some 12v points to supply external power.

Further is it redundancy or doubling the chances of failure? You now have a 12v charger that could stop working, and a 12v battery that could stop working. Both of those break the car. If the main battery goes that's basically bricking the car and you aren't going anywhere anyway

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#419

Post by zizee »

therealrootuser wrote: post #187

As someone that is currently in the market for a new car, I would love to get an EV, but I also don't have a good way to charge. Seems like most EV owners just charge at their house, but what about people that don't have access to a good power tap? (apartment dwellers, renters, etc.) Sometimes it feels like there is a group of EV elites out there that are predicting the complete demise of ICEs while conveniently down…

> Sometimes it feels like there is a group of EV elites out there that are predicting the complete demise of ICEs while conveniently downplaying the problem of charging access.

I see the opposite. Every single discussion of EVs, people come out of the woodwork with all the edgecases/usecaes where current EVs don't fare so favourably to ICEs.

Guess what! EVs don't have to be perfect in every scenario to be better for a growing number of people. The cars and infrastructure continue to improve, and the number of edgecase are slowly falling like dominos.

Range not suitable for people that are regularly driving 1000km commutes? Lots of people have driving habits where a > 200km trip is a rarity. And available range keeps increasing as the tech improves.

Battery charging not so great in places with subzero temperatures have the year? Lots of people live in warmer climates. No doubt, someone is looking at improved battery chemistries or thermal regulation to help here.

Can't charge at home because you live in a studio apartment with no off street parking? There a lot of people that own their own homes, or have apartments with off-street parking. Meanwhile more charging stations are being installed at shopping centres, businesses, in reserved on street parking.

Why do people think EVs have to serve every single person perfectly before we'll see adoption? Why do they think the cars and infrastructure is going to remain static going forward? This transition is going to happen over a 10-20 year period as EVs improve, and old ICE cars are retired. It's not all happening next year.

Personally, I will buy one as soon as I have determined they make the most sense for me, just like everyone will. For some, that will be now, for others it will be five years from now, for some it will be 20 years from now.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#420

Post by rcMgD2BwE72F »

lifeplusplus wrote: post #274

Won't electric car have bad resell value given battery cost an arm to replace

No. Nowadays, EV don't need battery replacement. Degradation is negligible for the current fleet:

Bullshit. https://www.geotab.com/fleet-management-solutions/ev-battery...

And these are for 10-year old EV. Battery packs made today won't have to be replace after 15 years, and they'll certainly be used as stationary storage past their time on wheels.

More importantly, most EV will switch to LFP chemistry (already more than half Tesla's vehicles production), which degrades even less.

-https://www.geotab.com/fleet-management-solutions/ev-battery...

- https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-dat...

- https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/2021-tesla-impact-report.pdf (p. 67) for Tesla S/X fleet wide results.

And this is for nickel-based batteries. Most EVs will be LFP in the foreseeable future, and they degrade far less. We'll certainly use the battery as long as they car can drive, and then, it will be added to the grid for stationary applications. Then, it will be sold and recycled.

More from the International Energy Agency latest report on EV/batteries: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/e0d2081d-487d-4818-...

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