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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#411

Post by sorenjan »

bredren wrote: post #133
rootusrootus wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As an owner for 5+ years, the cars show well but pretty quickly become a pain in the ass. I agree. As a former owner. They are fun to show. But there are real annoyances. In the case of the Model 3 in particular, I quickly tired of the door handles. The psychotic windshield wipers. No CarPlay. The smartphone unlocking which worked most of the time until just that moment when your hands were full. It became a chore…

Given your experiences, I'm curious about your and parent's feedback on the following: * What are your current top alternative make / models? * If you have some you're tracking, which make / models are you most anticipating?

Look at Polestar, VW, Kia, and Hyundai. Hyundai released their Ioniq 6 today.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#412

Post by wnevets »

selfportrait wrote: post #409
wnevets wrote: post #60

Don't worry guys, FSD is right around the corner!

Let’s admit the real innovation here. It’s not FSD. It’s the underground tunnels with traffic. Underground traffic for all to be autopiloted through with their Teslas so that we can all meet at the digital town square on our phones.

I can't wait to stand in queue for an hour to take a 30mph Tesla ride in a tube instead of walking for 15 minutes!

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#413

Post by ncmncm »

cjrp wrote: post #376
ncmncm wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The elephant in the room is fraud. Tesla has been collecting thousands of dollars, each, from car buyers and utterly failing to deliver what it represented, and keeping the money year after year. Would be let GM, Toyota, or Audi do this? Where is the criminal prosecution? Where are the refunds?

Could they rely on something in the smallprint? "You're paying for access to features as they become available, no guarantee that they will" etc.

Juries have in the past often not been swayed by fine print, where consumers are involved. It seems to be there mainly to dissuade angry consumers from suing, rather than to win cases based on it.

I would not, personally, be so dissuaded.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#414

Post by ruh-roh »

function_seven wrote: post #57
dreamcompiler wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because self-driving has a bunch of tricky edge cases and most of them will kill people. Problems with hundreds of important edge cases cannot be solved by simply throwing more training data at the problem; that's how you solve AI problems in a "dumb" manner, and it works for lots of problems (like recognizing dogs in images) -- but not for self-driving. To solve the self-driving problem we need "smart" A.I., which m…

I remain convinced that "real" self driving (as in: go ahead and sleep in the backseat) will never happen without changes to road infrastructure and possibly some sort of segregation between robot-driven cars and people-driven cars. Things like traffic signals that actively communicate their status to nearby robot cars (more than just a red lamp that can be occluded by weather, other vehicles, or mud on the camera le…

> If we can't make the cars just as smart as an alert and capable driver, then maybe we need to meet halfway and make the roads a littler "dumber" (simpler) to accommodate the robots.

This aspect of FSD has always fascinated me and I'm a little surprised it doesn't get more discussion. Meeting halfway. At what point could/would/should FSD influence the environment around it?

For example - a poorly painted road sign*. Tesla/Waymo could say "We cannot support L5 FSD on this road until you fix this sign." If it meant a step forward in autonomy, Tesla/Waymo could even offer to share the cost of that improvement!

There are a million reasons why implementation of that would be problematic. Costs and incentives would be all over the place. But I am more interested in the framing: The machines are the ones that need to adapt. Which is essentially hoping for continued hardware improvements or a spaghetti mess of if/else statements. ie "do this weird thing if you see this other weird thing in front of you". Can we get rid of the weird thing and avoid the engineering challenge altogether?

* Yes, this is an overly simple example. Some environment changes could be so large that they would require a full redesign of a city/buildings/traffic patterns. But surely there are classes of improvements where some are easier than others.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#415

Post by antisthenes »

rsynnott wrote: post #385
antisthenes wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You could buy software to transcribe voice on your home computer, and people did. And, now, well, it's better than in the mid-90s certainly, but you wouldn't trust it to write a transcript, not of anything important. Is this the fault of software or people generally frequently using bad sound equipment in poor and noisy conditions, such as talking on the phone while driving, on the street, poor connection, wind/rai…

Even in ideal recording conditions, machines are quite bad at transcribing human speech. Look at subtitles on live TV shows, typically produced these days by machine transcription; they're typically barely usable.

Those subtitles are how I learned english in the states. They're actually quite good.

Not sure what you're talking about really.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#416

Post by tapatio »

elif wrote: post #289
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

FSD beta tester here. I think they are minimum 3 years away from anything exciting beta.. but the localization, mapping, and visualization are not the reason. I don't think LIDAR would contribute substantially to improvement. The fundamental flaws are in the decision-making being based upon 10-30 second feature memory, ignoring features outright, and only depending on visible road features instead of persisted map da…

Realistically its 20 years away.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#417

Post by tapatio »

macNchz wrote: post #175
lcnmrn wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only wait to solve it is to have smart roads. Basically, moving the problem domain from the car to the street.

I've long had this fantasy of a smart road pilot program wherein manufacturers would partner with governments (or toll road owners in some places?) to make self-driving- only smart lanes, where you have to surrender control but the car goes 120+mph. I imagine getting even a handful of popular longer routes enabled for that would be quite popular.

Makes sense. It's like having a train but you can take your Pullman off the "track" for "last mile" transport.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#418

Post by misiti3780 »

rootusrootus wrote: post #112
dreamcompiler wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber bet the company on robotaxis and lost. Tesla is still building very good cars that happen to not be able to drive themselves. Just like every other car. If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.

> If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money. They may want to think about that strategy soon. Model 3 is starting to seem dated (not to mention Model S, which is ten years old). There are very competitive alternatives on the market now that have strengths where Tesla is weak, and which are not especially weak in the areas Tesla is strong.

what planet are you living on, the Model is was refreshed less than 1 year ago, and the new version is amazing.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#419

Post by [deleted] »

sonofhans wrote: post #309
raydiatian wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sort of. Your wording actually assumes down to its core that driving is inherently social, when in fact I think it may be only provisionally social. Driving currently “is social” in a few senses, But of course the important (and obvious) one is that it currently involves accounting for human-operated vehicles. Alternatively, an autonomous vehicle operator in a homogenous network full of other autonomous operators has…

You know, I could be snide, and say, “We’ve already invented that — it’s called a train.” :D But I’ve thought the same, too. If every car on the road is robot-controlled then it changes the problem. Modulo failures, discrete algorithms should behave predictably towards each other, like the unix API philosophy. It seems hard to get there, though. Even today it’s a PITA to maintain API boundaries in simple libraries, n…

[deleted]

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#420

Post by [deleted] »

aidenn0 wrote: post #272
raydiatian wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “This assumes our roads are used exclusively by autonomous vehicles” I not only assume it, I say it out loud: “[fully autonomous, …] maybe even majority homogenous, partly heterogenous?” > “When our roads are not used exclusively by motor vehicles to begin with.” I’m not following what you’re saying here in the context of the earlier clause. If you mean not used exclusively by autonomous vehicles, yes, and that’s w…

I mean bicycles and pedestrians

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