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How This Ends

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Re: How This Ends

#411

Post by mejutoco »

chewz wrote: post #401
matthewaveryusa wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuinely curious : Russia’s GDP is < 10% that of the US or China. What’s up with this fascination with Russia (economically speaking — the humanitarian tragedy they are creating is a different topic)? The only question is if they align with the west or with china —-they’ve already lost as a super power, and their best strategic choice is to become a prized and expensive proxy between the west and china. The thing is…

> so the calculus for russia is losing on all fronts Look at EURRUB at 7 years high... with forecast of going much higher.. Rouble is best performing currency (after short drop) this year (YTD)... Looks like Russia is wining the war big time... [] Ruble Hits 5-Year High as Gas Buyers Bend to Putin’s Will - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/ruble-sur...

Without entering on who is winning and things like that.

With the capital controls in place today idk how much the price of the ruble means.

Re: How This Ends

#412

Post by n8cpdx »

chmod600 wrote: post #376
architravesty wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worst part is the utterly absurd shortage means RE is never going to meaningfully dip for any period of time without serious structural reforms. The focus on interest rates as the main RE driver is almost completely cope and I wish I could believe it. Low-rate mortgages certainly aren't helping, but they're "not helping" in the same way that hucking an armload of kindling into an already-raging house fire is "not hel…

I agree that local zoning is a problem, but I've seen a trend to try to turn it into the wild west. I'm not sure people building duplexes in R1 is really a solution. It seems like we need more medium density in commercial areas (e.g. four stories of apartments on top of one floor of commercial). That could bring down rents and improve quality of life, and improve the suburbs as well. If you drive by a poorly-maintain…

There’s a housing emergency in most places people want to live. If society wanted to have moderate solutions, they should have tried these conservative solutions before crisis point.

It’s like saying pouring water on a house fire is too extreme, maybe try an ABC extinguisher instead. The time for half measures is long past. If NIMBY home owners don’t like that there’s an apartment in their neighborhood, they can choke.

Re: How This Ends

#413

Post by djbusby »

datalopers wrote: post #197
riku_iki wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are switching topics. The point is that there will be plenty of funds inflow to support housing market.

Would you like to place a wager? I bet that the median home price in tech-centric metro areas (seattle, sf/bay, la, nyc) will decline by 10% or more in July 2023 versus July 2022.

!remindme 2023-08-01

Re: How This Ends

#414

Post by danhak »

mrits wrote: post #408
danhak wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like what for example?

For example, the fastest growing economy in my lifetime last year.

It's true that 2021 saw the highest rate of GDP growth in 30 years, but that came immediately after the largest GDP decline in 30 years during 2020. So that can be explained as an aberration due to the pandemic shutdowns and subsequent rebound:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188165/annual-gdp-growth...

At any rate, GDP growth is currently negative for 2022 and China's economy is still projected to overtake the U.S. in a matter of years.

Re: How This Ends

#415

Post by Nagyman »

chmod600 wrote: post #376
architravesty wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worst part is the utterly absurd shortage means RE is never going to meaningfully dip for any period of time without serious structural reforms. The focus on interest rates as the main RE driver is almost completely cope and I wish I could believe it. Low-rate mortgages certainly aren't helping, but they're "not helping" in the same way that hucking an armload of kindling into an already-raging house fire is "not hel…

I agree that local zoning is a problem, but I've seen a trend to try to turn it into the wild west. I'm not sure people building duplexes in R1 is really a solution. It seems like we need more medium density in commercial areas (e.g. four stories of apartments on top of one floor of commercial). That could bring down rents and improve quality of life, and improve the suburbs as well. If you drive by a poorly-maintain…

I've heard the idea to zone for one level above the average in an area, to avoid the wild west situation. Doubtful that would fly with some very rich single family neighbourhoods near cities, but perhaps it's too late for the gradual re-zoning and a more blunt approach is necessary.

Aside... where the heck is tech in building housing faster? Where's the prefab and automated assembly? Too many building regulations? Entrenched interests? Incredibly hard problem for large scale engineering?

Re: How This Ends

#418

Post by [deleted] »

zby wrote: post #409
fny wrote: post #24

I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…

If they hike the rates too much then debt servicing would be costly. This is different from 1980, because back then US gov debt was about 30% of GDP and now it is 120% of GDP ( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S#0 ) What are the realistic values here? I have no clue, but a good analysis should cover this.

[deleted]

Re: How This Ends

#419

Post by fny »

chmod600 wrote: post #126
fny wrote: post #24

I'm going to explain what has happened so far. What happens next entirely depends on how inflation continues and the feds reaction. 1. We had zero percent interest rates. This causes the value of assets with cash flows out into the future (think speculative tech, Tesla) to accelerate. 2. We had massive herding in megacap tech. These valuations are high in part because for a decade you would not have beat the index wi…

I motice that you left out real estate from your analysis. RE is interesting because it's both an asset as well as something you can use. So if there's general inflation, it's got both upward pressure (because it's an alternative to rent from a consumer standpoint) and downward pressure (because bonds are an alternative to RE from an investment standpoint).

Real estate is interesting. The issue is will you be able to make enough rent to actually get a return. I think at this point that's still the case over a 30 year period, but I'm not quite sure what that'll look like in time.

Re: How This Ends

#420

Post by snikeris »

thechao wrote: post #343
spicyusername wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is probably the most useful wisdom for the average person: > do not invest money you need within 5-10 years and do not make rash decisions; it is better to ride this train down and then hopefully back up than jump randomly. Gaming the market successfully requires a ton of skill and knowledge, and even then you are not guaranteed success. Most people are better off focusing on asset-class diversification…

Right; so my plan of having 60% of my wealth tied up in unvested stocks in a single company is really coming to fruition!

There are ways to mitigate this risk. Talk to a professional.
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