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Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

economist.com

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Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#411

Post by scoofy »

This is an area where Warren Buffett and Nassim Taleb agree in opposition to the efficient market hypothesis. Speculative investments are occasionally culled, and when that happens, some investors are injured, while others are completely wiped out.

These moments of extreme plain make a fully diversified or even an anti-fragile strategy effective in the long run. Value investors don't get wiped out, they live to fight another day. This lesson was forced into me by my father during the dot com era, and it's been shown painfully true. The value trap is a concern, but market fundamentals are the only way to sleep at night. The biggest issue in markets is, due to the lack of need and cost of most public offerings, most companies with fundamentals are now out of reach of non-accredited investors and are completely funded by private equity.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#412

Post by sgc »

legitster wrote: post #205
martindbp wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla made more money last quarter than Ford, GM and Toyota. Toyota made 10x the number of cars as Tesla. Tesla is growing vehicle production 50% YoY, while growing profit even faster (having barely hit economies of scale yet). Tesla has a backlog of orders approaching a year in many regions. Everyone else is losing money on their EVs and can't make them in volume production, can't find the batteries for them, becaus…

I'm not sure where you are getting those numbers from. Ford had $37b in revenue Q4. Tesla had $16b. Tesla is an impressive company that's managed to finally be profitable. But currently their market cap is higher than all other auto manufacturers combined. > Everyone else is losing money on their EVs and can't make them in volume production, can't find the batteries for them, you do the math. That's the thing, this s…

Agreed.

I for one am very happy with the wider EV push, because I will never need to buy a Tesla. I am sure many other people have similar sentiments. Obviously they are valued for their batteries and solar as well, but their business model and product offerings there are far from a fit for everybody either. It all does not add up to current value, although it is hard to see where the mad dash to buy "the future^TM" runs out of cash to throw at it.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#413

Post by xtan6491 »

immigrantheart wrote: post #59

I almost got offer from DoorDash, with obviously RSU as one of the compensation. Eventually didn't get the offer because they said I didn't pass leadership interview. Apparently I was interviewing at one level above I thought I was interviewing (the recruiter messed up). Anyway, I accepted an offer from a hedge fund, comparatively similar, but all cash. Now I feel that I am glad I accepted the hedge fund offer. I don…

I just left a hedge fund to join aws. Even the aws is famous for its worst WLB and toxic culture, it is much better than the hedge fund I worked for. Knowing many friends switched from finance to tech, I found no one regretted. Plus the TC is still much more than HF even after the 40% drop.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#414

Post by Clubber »

malwarebytess wrote: post #391
Clubber wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a euphemism for layoffs which is a euphemism for mass firings, a la corporate speak. "Rightsizing," is another one.

It's different from layoffs. RIF comes with the implication that the reduction is permanent.

>It's different from layoffs. RIF comes with the implication that the reduction is permanent.

Academically, yes you're right. Practically, they are the same. No one can afford to sit around and wait a year or two to get rehired after layoffs, if that ever happens; and anytime a RIF happens, the positions are usually refilled once finances are better.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#415

Post by cmrdporcupine »

So, given this... I have a product idea, along with another technical co-founder. I have a few months savings to feed my family, so I could feasibly work on it fulltime. ... Let's say I came up with a demo, a pitch deck, etc. Would people say the chances of getting seed capital is significantly reduced now? Or do we just not know yet?

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#416

Post by piva00 »

martindbp wrote: post #249
bradfa wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at a single quarter is not a great way to compare large companies. Even looking at just a single year is not a great way, but for comparison, in 2021 Tesla had revenue of $54 billion and net income of $5.5 billion. In 2021 Ford had revenue of $136 billion and net income of $17.9 billion. Toyota had similar net income as Ford in 2021. Yes, in the most recently reported quarter Ford lost money. And in previous…

For Tesla it makes way more sense to use the annualized Q4 numbers vs Ford total 2021 because Tesla grows like crazy, that's the whole point. It doesn't matter that Tesla lost money in the past if they're printing it like there's no tomorrow now, with nothing stopping them (except lock downs). Traditional autos ICE sales have been decreasing and will continue to do so, and they're trying to replace it with EV sales t…

> with nothing stopping them (except lock downs)

And maybe competition? The market is booming but other automakers are starting to have competitive lines.

I want to see what Tesla could have in their sleeve to ever become as desirable as they were the past years... I'm not sure if all this hope in eternal growth of Tesla will hold.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#417

Post by andy_ppp »

gopher_space wrote: post #388
andy_ppp wrote: post #372

Great time to build a startup then, as by the time you have product market fit you'll either be living in a bunker eating canned food or things will have come around. http://www.paulgraham.com/badeconomy.html I'm actually moving to Mallorca to bootstrap a startup for two months and quitting my job, only time will tell if I'm right!

Our tools are getting pretty decent, too. If rent was cheaper I think you'd see startups all over.

Yes, I've moved from London to lower my burn rate, rent in Bristol is pretty cheap.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#418

Post by Robotbeat »

rhizome wrote: post #408
Robotbeat wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sucks is that fiscal policy, ie government spending, is also often not very efficient. Even when rampant corruption doesn’t destroy efficiency, crushing bureaucracy or just plain incompetence will. (Is the DMV a model of efficiency?) So you need a smart balance. And you need competent, honest people in both business AND government. I don’t think that government necessarily is inefficient. The DMV could be a very…

This is due to tax policies reducing the revenue pool. This makes it easier to judge individual divisions of the total because there are necessarily fewer outlets, and since it's a smaller pool there's more reason to fight. The idle rich who can't find anywhere worthwhile to play with their nearly-free money (until recently ZIRPish) are a bug in the system. Oh, but lets pretend we are captains of industry by saturati…

I don’t think the government being inefficient is good. It gives ammo to those who are ideologically opposed to government doing things. We should strive to improve government efficiency, especially those of us who think the government should be taking on more tasks.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#419

Post by JTbane »

bushbaba wrote: post #73
lumost wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Across every investment class there has been a trend of buyers needing to become more financially irresponsible in order to participate in the market. Need to buy a house? bid 20% more than asking, if you don't - someone else will.. in cash. Need to build a ride-hailing app? prepare to pay people to ride indefinitely. Need to own a growth stock? prepare to pay upwards of 100x multiple on revenue. All around, there ha…

...or housing will drop as interest rates go up. And a non insignificant number of folks were over extended in leverage. I know too many folks who did 7/1 ARMs cash out refi to purchase another home in a 7/1 ARM loan, banking not on cashflow but appreciation. I know of folks who bought homes using margin loans in their stock portfolio. If housing stagnates, there will be margin calls, leading to supply shock, and pri…

>I know too many folks who did 7/1 ARMs cash out refi to purchase another home in a 7/1 ARM loan, banking not on cashflow but appreciation. I know of folks who bought homes using margin loans in their stock portfolio. If housing stagnates, there will be margin calls, leading to supply shock, and price declines. Especially now that mortgage interest rates have nearly doubled year to date.

I can't be alone in wishing that would happen. Yes, people would lose a lot of money (potentially everything), but they played stupid games.

Re: Tech bubbles are bursting all over the place

#420

Post by the_only_law »

SauciestGNU wrote: post #290
Robotbeat wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sucks is that fiscal policy, ie government spending, is also often not very efficient. Even when rampant corruption doesn’t destroy efficiency, crushing bureaucracy or just plain incompetence will. (Is the DMV a model of efficiency?) So you need a smart balance. And you need competent, honest people in both business AND government. I don’t think that government necessarily is inefficient. The DMV could be a very…

People keep using the DMV as an example of government inefficiency, but my state has made it run so painlessly I don't think I've spent more than 15 minutes in an office over the last 5 years. I think government can be efficient if you put technocrats in charge of implementation rather than elected officials who are subject to the electoral whims of the uninformed masses. The problem with the above is it weakens demo…

See I wish. The DMV near me has been merged with other offices (probably in some lazy attempt to “reduce spending”) and you better make your appointment a month or two out because there won’t be any availability otherwise.
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