Seems like the bubble burst is going to be more sudden than we thought. 30 year mortgages are suddenly at nearly 5.5-6%, listings are sitting on the market for longer, and multiple cities are cracking down on Airbnb.
I mean, it's not really a burst, we're just hearing the hissing noise of the obvious leak. The true demand from people with the intend to actually live in the estates has been constantly decreasing since around 2000; the real salarys dropped since then, so did the buying power. The only reasons people found buyers at x3-x10 (!) prices were a) that there is a class of people wealthy enough to still afford the purchase…
Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
411–420 of 510 posts
Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
#412Earlier quoted context omitted.
A 200 day lock is a call option on a loan, the price of the option changes all the time. What you're saying is that local banks/CUs would offer such an option for free. Someone has to pay for the option - in the scenario you describe, the bank/CU would pay for it by losing liquidity of its assets, then having to mark them down. Rate locks are backed by rate swaps. The cost of purchasing a rate swap ultimately comes o…
Who the hell is buying 10Y mortgages?
One interesting hypothesis is that the focus on fixed-rate 30Y mortgages is fundamentally destabilizing for the US and world economy, because the stability and optionality of 30Y mortgages is paid for by added volatility of the 10Y debt market through those same swaps. Per this theory, US 30Y fixed-rate mortgages are effectively subsidized by the rest of the world. https://byrnehobart.medium.com/the-30-year-mortgage-is-an-in...
Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
#413I imagine that Rocket increased their workforce by more than 8% between spring of 2020 and now. I work for a mortgage company and layoffs have happened multiple times this year. With rates so low for almost two years the volume increased significantly. In order to deal with that volume the company most certainly had to hire many people and quick. The market conditions can't support keeping those individuals (or at le…
How this downsizing looks from a client's point of view: I have almost finished a 4 months long process of buying a summer house (including one failed deal), and my first financial agent - a very bright and fast girl - was fired right in the middle of my first transaction... and nobody told me a word about it - neither the manager, not the new agent, so I was sitting in the dark for a week or so. The agent that I got…
Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
#414My wife and I will be moving to Chicago soon and we intend on buying a house when we get there. How screwed are we by the current housing situation and interest rates?
I grew up in Chicago and love Chicago, so I'll try to say this as politely as possible - don't expect your property to hold any value in IL. Anecdata - I have friends that lived there for 8+ years, then moved to the south in the last 2 years and their property value barely budged.
Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
#415Earlier quoted context omitted.
house ownership is just a legal construct. you don't really own the house, even when it's paid off. even if you own, and pay off the entire house, you'll still have to pay "rent" in the form of property taxes, an unfortunate reality.
> house ownership is just a legal construct Stange argument, all rights are legal contructs - how do I know my employer will pay me for work done, or my neighbour won't rob be in my sleep and slit my neck? If we don't trust legal constructs, we can't have a civilisation.
Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
#416Seems like the bubble burst is going to be more sudden than we thought. 30 year mortgages are suddenly at nearly 5.5-6%, listings are sitting on the market for longer, and multiple cities are cracking down on Airbnb.
"Cracking down on Airbnb"... you say this as if Airbnb is a horrible thing or something LOL
Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
#417Earlier quoted context omitted.
How this downsizing looks from a client's point of view: I have almost finished a 4 months long process of buying a summer house (including one failed deal), and my first financial agent - a very bright and fast girl - was fired right in the middle of my first transaction... and nobody told me a word about it - neither the manager, not the new agent, so I was sitting in the dark for a week or so. The agent that I got…
they put up a non-adult to do these transactions? what the hell?
Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
#418Earlier quoted context omitted.
house ownership is just a legal construct. you don't really own the house, even when it's paid off. even if you own, and pay off the entire house, you'll still have to pay "rent" in the form of property taxes, an unfortunate reality.
I'm in the UK. AFAIK we don't have any ongoing property taxes to pay, at least not if I have bought the freehold. Leaseholders may have to pay ground rent, but that's often a peppercorn and anything above that is being legislated into oblivion this year[0]. Regardless, ownership is a useful legal construct the benefits of which seem to outweigh those of being a tenant. [0] https://landlordknowledge.co.uk/ground-rents…
Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
#419Earlier quoted context omitted.
> However they are currently running at an interest rate of a little under 4% which is much higher than the rate offered on a typical 5 year year fix. This makes them unattractive when you can just perpetually keep re-mortgaging on 5 year fixes. Renewing after 5 years will presumably get you whatever rate is then? Which might be much higher. It's always better to get a fixed rate (for the life of the loan) mortgage.…
Well it's an unknowable gamble. You might also be locking in an excessively high rate. The flexible approach of continuously re-mortgaging would have been the better strategy for the last 10 years with interest rates that went down. In the next 10 years, who knows.
There is no gamble, that's why it is almost a free lunch. If rates keep going down as last ~10 years, you're never locked in, you keep refinancing to a lower and lower rate. If rates go up, you stay put with a fixed rate that can't ever go up. You win both ways.
Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks
#420I imagine that Rocket increased their workforce by more than 8% between spring of 2020 and now. I work for a mortgage company and layoffs have happened multiple times this year. With rates so low for almost two years the volume increased significantly. In order to deal with that volume the company most certainly had to hire many people and quick. The market conditions can't support keeping those individuals (or at le…
H&R Block must be the harshest cycle, but also most predictable.