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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

reuters.com

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#411

Post by inglor_cz »

petre wrote: post #345
def_true_false wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering the lack of coordination of their ground forces and their absurd OPSEC, it might simply be communication issues. Fuel and maintenance issues are also a safe bet with Russia. The Russian Buks also seem to be having a bad time against the Bayraktars.

> The Russian Buks also seem to be having a bad time against the Bayraktars. Why? Small radar signature?

Small signature and they fly low.

Buks are ideal for taking down a big jet aircraft flying at 10000+ ft.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#412

Post by ethbr0 »

gamblor956 wrote: post #151
blast wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that is the case, why would officials and experts be "stumped"? This seems like the obvious explanation.

The "stumped" is not actually in the article. FTA: the issue is that Russia made a huge show of force at the start of the invasion but has apparently held back from actually using much of it (by air or ground). This war could have been over the day it started if Russia had used maximal force, and the conservative approach their actually using maximizes risks and casualties. And that's what has the experts confused: t…

> why Russia is going with this strategy

Because this isn't the intended strategy, but rather then resultant strategy.

Modern Russia seems to suffer from the same weaknesses as the USSR: garbage-in, garbage-out. If you staff an entire bureaucracy (including your military command structure) with Yes-Men, you get "Yes" responses.

When the question is "Are we prepared for the invasion?"

When the question is "Will we be able to supply our ground forces?"

When the question is "Will we be able to achieve air superiority rapidly?"

And because that's how hierarchies work, you believe the "Yes" you hear. And make your strategic plans on the basis of it being true.

Consequently, Russia appears to have built an entire invasion plan on a not-insignificant number of lies about their own forces, as communicated by their own mid-level leadership.

Imho, that explains things pretty simply and fully.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#413

Post by kettro »

throwawayay02 wrote: post #337
lmohseni wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have footage of cluster bombs striking civilian apartment buildings in Kharkiv: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZuKEwuZznw

There are counter claims that that building was being used for recruitment for the Azov battalion.

The Azov Battalion is the cause of everything, it seems. They're recruiting everywhere, I'm surprised it itself isn't the whole of the Ukrainian defenses now, if I believed all of the Russian shills.

/s/Azov Battalion/Ukrainian National Guard/

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#414

Post by redisman »

selimthegrim wrote: post #336
saiya-jin wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reason was, we just waltz into Kyev, get greeted as saviors and liberators, maybe shoot Zelenskyy and his circle in the head by mistake, or just make them disappear, install another friendly ruler (collaborator would be more appropriate, like Kadyrov in Chechnya) and Ukraine will be part of Russia within next few years, or end up as slave without any real autonomy like Belarus. If that's the case, industr…

There was a hue and cry about Ukrainians dipping bullets into salo but seeing as the Chechens got droned by Bayraktars it seems like the Turks don't mind whatever treatment the drones are getting.

Why would they? The Turkish economy is in shambles and this is amazing PR for their arms manufacturing. I’d imagine those drones will be sold out for years to come

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#415

Post by saiya-jin »

selimthegrim wrote: post #336
saiya-jin wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the reason was, we just waltz into Kyev, get greeted as saviors and liberators, maybe shoot Zelenskyy and his circle in the head by mistake, or just make them disappear, install another friendly ruler (collaborator would be more appropriate, like Kadyrov in Chechnya) and Ukraine will be part of Russia within next few years, or end up as slave without any real autonomy like Belarus. If that's the case, industr…

There was a hue and cry about Ukrainians dipping bullets into salo but seeing as the Chechens got droned by Bayraktars it seems like the Turks don't mind whatever treatment the drones are getting.

Chechens have truly horrible reputation in east/central Europe, picture ISIS but worse. There is absolutely no sympathy to them, thanks to what they showed in Syria fighting for the same guy. I am surprised they are actually taking some of them as prisoners.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#416

Post by digitallyfree »

StillBored wrote: post #107
mstipetic wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always wonder how they developed things like that in the 70s. Right now I don’t know a single engineer that could even know how to begin to develop a system like that. I feel like most of them would try and throw a neural net at the problem and call it a day.

I'm guessing most mechanical and/or ECE programs still teach "control systems", and that might be where one begins, along with some "signals and systems" and RF classes. I suspect that the engineers you know are more computer science "engineers" than people who went through a traditional engineering core.

The HN crowd is primarily software engineers and their curriculum probably doesn't cover this. But a EE can specialize in this field with courses in radar systems, signal processing, control theory, etc.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#417

Post by ethbr0 »

brightball wrote: post #91
mstipetic wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always wonder how they developed things like that in the 70s. Right now I don’t know a single engineer that could even know how to begin to develop a system like that. I feel like most of them would try and throw a neural net at the problem and call it a day.

I talked to a guy a few weeks ago who worked for a company that developed a guidance system before GPS that used stars like a sextant to navigate. Pretty crazy to think about.

Star trackers https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_tracker

Ironically, the last one I touched was a piece of donated Russian equipment, intended for spacecraft use, with no manual.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#418

Post by redisman »

saiya-jin wrote: post #262
standardUser wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Lack of experienced Russian pilot" This one is so hard for me to imagine, given Russia's long history of aerospace pride and massive military budget. The article attributes it to limited flying time compared to US/UK pilots and unfamiliarity with their latest and most advanced jets. Truly hard to comprehend how a military like Russia's could be suffering from lack of training despite a multi-year lead-up to a massiv…

Its easy - imagine massive, gargantuan corruption. On all levels, including the very top and going all the way to the lowest soldier. Heck, they were selling gas to Belarus civilians from their own machines while waiting just across the border during February. And then they ran out of it in Ukraine. Can you imagine US or western Europe soldiers doing something similar en masse? And its not just that - heavy drinking,…

China won’t invade anyone. They haven’t had any battles in a long time. They can just take over with soft power since Russia is in a extremely weak position in a few months.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#419

Post by jacquesm »

austhrow743 wrote: post #350
jl6 wrote: post #261

I guess everyone's weighing in with their view, so why not? Firstly, we should be mindful that the fog of war is now in play, and a good amount of what we think we know is unverifiable. With that caveat out of the way... It seems that the Russian soldiers are making efforts to avoid attacking civilians directly. Counterexamples exist and could be explained by rogue units, incompetence, or hot-blooded revenge on local…

>Did they really launch this invasion on the assumption that the people of Ukraine would just roll over and accept foreign rule? Iirc Ukraine had a government that was subordinate to Russia as recently as 2014. Belarus is still a Russian puppet. The Transnistria region of Moldova to Ukraine's south is largely welcoming of Russian military control. Doesn't seem too outlandish for them to assume that to me.

That would be an epic failure of Russian intelligence. Alternative take: they knew but didn't dare to tell Putin. Don't underestimate the isolation of strongmen.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#420

Post by kspacewalk2 »

saiya-jin wrote: post #262
standardUser wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Lack of experienced Russian pilot" This one is so hard for me to imagine, given Russia's long history of aerospace pride and massive military budget. The article attributes it to limited flying time compared to US/UK pilots and unfamiliarity with their latest and most advanced jets. Truly hard to comprehend how a military like Russia's could be suffering from lack of training despite a multi-year lead-up to a massiv…

Its easy - imagine massive, gargantuan corruption. On all levels, including the very top and going all the way to the lowest soldier. Heck, they were selling gas to Belarus civilians from their own machines while waiting just across the border during February. And then they ran out of it in Ukraine. Can you imagine US or western Europe soldiers doing something similar en masse? And its not just that - heavy drinking,…

>I think its actually very dangerous for Russia as a state right now. Showing this much weakness might motivate some neighbors. Especially China, they could run through the country all the way to Barents sea without breaking a sweat.

To which I say: Russia has ~half of the world's nuclear arsenal. (The US has ~half, the rest of the nuclear states are mere footnotes by # of nukes, relying on the fact that no one really needs more than about a dozen).

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