TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#411

Post by solveit » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 6:56 PM UTC

dkersten wrote: post #348

malaya_zemlya wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's what being rich means - being able to control a large share of resources.

Sure, but a lot of the pro-cryptocurrency people say (or used to, at least) that cryptocurrencies will liberate us from the existing power structures. But it doesn't really, because the people with pre-existing power can just as easily buy their way into power over cryptocurrencies too.

You're still not printing over 21 million bitcoin though. And you're still not deanonymizing transactions (for properly designed privacy coins). I think monetary policy and privacy were the two main arguments for crypto in the early days before we started funding every startup with a half-baked "XXX on The Blockchain" idea.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#412

Post by rfd4sgmk8u » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 6:59 PM UTC

bluecalm wrote: post #399

rfd4sgmk8u wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reality is everything is a Ponzi. Equities. Real Estate. Economies. The thing that Bitcoiners have realized, that I think you may not have quite understood yet, is that there is no 'cash run out'. Brrrrr... Cash is infinite. Bitcoin is not. That is part of its fundamental value proposition.

Stocks are not Ponzi wtf? Even today you can get something like Apple making 3% per year while also having big chance of making more in the future. It has nothing to do with a Ponzi scheme at all while artificially propped up producing absolutely nothing crypto currencies have a lot of similarities. The argument that scarcity is a fundamental value proposition for an asset is just nonsense. I can make my own crypto e…

Stocks are a ponzi by definition. All growth in stock prices are dependent on extracting money from future investors. It gets a little more complex with corporate stock buybacks, but ignoring this, the price of a stock tracks a companies success, but is ultimately a product of the market buy/sells. Without injection of funds by the corporation, its a Ponzi like anything else. Even more so for stock that does not issue dividends. Same goes for housing, or anything else with scarcity. Wall street has done a great disservice making you believe the price of a stock accurately reflects the value added by the corporation.

I agree that adoption (network effect, Metcalfs Law), censorship resistance and other economic constructs like stablecoins all have an influence in value. Folks have been saying "I can make my own, scarcity is bunk" for a long time now. 10,000 other clones of bitcoin exist today that are worth nothin'. Maybe there is something about big b Bitcoin and the cryptoeconomic model that Satoshi chose.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#413

Post by brianwawok » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 7:00 PM UTC

snapcaster wrote: post #171

brianwawok wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It won't if people realize that BTC is not a useful product, and the price falls to $1k or $100. At that point no one except someone stealing electricity can afford to mine, so the entire monetary system collapses and becomes worth the same as US Civil War dollars (can maybe buy a loaf of bread with a wheelbarrow full?)

Given that bitcoin has been around for 2008, at what point will you personally concede that it's not likely to happen? Why would it happen now if it didn't in the first 13 years?

It's going to be a flash and a poof though. I don't think it's going to go down 10% a year for 10 years or something. I do think it may drop 50-70% in one day/week, which makes miners shut down, which causes a full collapse.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#414

Post by qeternity » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 7:00 PM UTC

colejohnson66 wrote: post #219

beiller wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are they also raising prices of CPUs? Arm chips? Your argument is based on an assertion that sounds like it could be right, but is it? Hasn't every country in the world been injecting cash stimulus into people's hands in an epic attempt to boost demand across all industries? Also why are miners the target here. Are there not deep learning, gamers, anything else who also want to use these monsterous compute units? (GP…

Miners are the target of anger not (necessarily) because it’s wasted energy,[a] but because them using GPUs creates a self serving cycle: Difficulty goes up, more GPUs are bought to counteract that, repeat. This isn’t helped my the monetary reward for doing so.[b] Deep learning, gaming, etc. are different in that someone doing 2 way SLI doesn’t make others need to do the same. If my online opponents are playing on RT…

> using GPUs creates a self serving cycle: Difficulty goes up, more GPUs are bought to counteract that, repeat. This isn’t helped my the monetary reward for doing so.

Not quite. Price continues to go up, courtesy of Tether, which makes the mining rewards more valuable. This encourages new miners to join the network which pushes difficulty higher, until the difficulty level rises such that every unit of output costs more to produce than its worth. Then it's no longer profitable to mine.

But again, Tether has no choice but to keep things pumping.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#415

Post by boudin » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 7:01 PM UTC

Consultant32452 wrote: post #388

formerly_proven wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Advocates will defend this by saying most energy usage is renewable. Even if true (iirc there is a lot of doubt whether it is, see Iran), it's still moronic, because consuming renewable energy for shits and giggles obviously means that other energy demands are being met with your usual energy mix instead of that renewable energy that went into shits and giggles as assumed. In terms of net emissions it simply doesn'…

Ridding the world of centrally planned currency isn’t shits and giggles. We’re in the midst of the largest wealth transfer in history. Trillions are being given to the wealthy while the poor see their purchasing power wither away. I’m not certain we’ll successfully escape their depraved clutches, but wasting a little electricity is worth the chance.

How are crypto currencies changing that?

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#416

Post by epsilon_greedy » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 7:01 PM UTC

andrewmcwatters wrote: post #300

njovin wrote: post #288

Forgive the naive question but why doesn't the US government fund several foundries in the US immediately? $20B over 3 years is a drop in the bucket compared to a lot of military spending and these chip shortages surely have downstream impact on the defense industry, no? At this point I'd be much happier subsidizing chip manufacturing than most of the other ways this country spends money overseas.

They are currently doing this with Intel afaik

There were early talks but I believe this only recently became official. See https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/intel-...

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#417

Post by brianwawok » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 7:02 PM UTC

rfd4sgmk8u wrote: post #319

bluecalm wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Madoff's scam lasted for 17 years and only collapsed because of sharp economic downturn. It could have lasted for much longer if people suddenly didn't need the cash. Bitcoin is often described as distributed Ponzi. There is little value (skipping over regulations is about the only thing it's useful for) and a lot artificial pumping. It will collapse when people need money for something else so either economic downtu…

The reality is everything is a Ponzi. Equities. Real Estate. Economies. The thing that Bitcoiners have realized, that I think you may not have quite understood yet, is that there is no 'cash run out'. Brrrrr... Cash is infinite. Bitcoin is not. That is part of its fundamental value proposition.

Real estate does something. If everything else goes to crap, I have a place to build my home. My home has a pretty high base value. If full banking collapse and we go back to trading, I would trade my house for a LOT of apples.

What does BTC do for me? It's a number on a screen. Much like a NFT.. it has no actual value on it's own. In a zombie apoc, no one is trading you food for BTC.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#418

Post by UncleOxidant » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 7:04 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #32

Supply shortage is another way of saying demand excess. I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. This is yet another way we’re all forced to pay the price for cryptocurrency. As long as GPUs are profitable for mining, they will be purchased and put to work. The saddest part is that each additional GPU added to the mining net…

> As long as GPUs are profitable for mining

What crypto currencies are still profitable to mine with GPUs? Not bitcoin - mining btc went to ASICs long ago. Not Ether which is now POS.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#419

Post by rfd4sgmk8u » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 7:05 PM UTC

babypuncher wrote: post #369

rfd4sgmk8u wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I think the informed Bitcoin investor is well aware of the value that decentralized peer-to-peer censorship resistant electronic money brings to the table. I care. Everyone I know cares. The core developers care. The ecosystem cares. I think you are radically underestimating the value of such things.

I'm pretty sure most of them just see mining as quick easy cash. If people actually valued the decentralization aspect then more would be using it for day to day transactions rather than just speculative investments.

Miners? Not a chance. They know exactly what they are doing for decentralization and censorship resistance. It requires large capital investment over many years, and often includes long energy contracts with providers. If you believe mining Bitcoin is 'quick easy cash' I am afraid you are mistaken (in 2021).

Some Retail investors? Sure -- but I'm sure you could find misinformed investors in all fields.

The point nocoiners miss is that holding Bitcoin IS using it. It is storing value over larger periods, and especially through jurisdictions with poor fiscal policies. Many like me will not sell their Bitcoin at any price -- especially not for dirty fiat.

Re: TSMC hikes chip prices up to 20% amid supply shortage

#420

Post by naruvimama » Thu, Aug 26, 2021, 7:06 PM UTC

webmobdev wrote: post #212

cwizou wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don’t see much evidence that TSMC ever really slowed production, at least for their most advanced processes that are in high demand. One thing I heard is that the drought (worst one in 50 years in Taiwan) has really affected them, and various sources seem to confirm it, here's one : https://fortune.com/2021/06/12/chip-shortage-taiwan-drought-... And while I wholeheartedly agree with the crypto/GPU issue, all in a…

> One thing I heard is that the drought (worst one in 50 years in Taiwan) has really affected them ... This is the one aspect of manufactuing of chips that many are actually ignorant about - it needs huge amounts of pure water. This is the main reason why India doesn't yet have any fab, despite having the human resource for it and investors and government showing great interest to setup one. Two or three decades back…

This is a very false premise. Water is no reason to not have a fab, just like Japan builds semiconductor & nuclear plants in a seismically active zone. So does Israel in a dessert.

India receives way more rain than it requires even in the drier parts, the problem with soil degradation and deforestation that came with unchecked "modern" agriculture.

The productivity & economic benefits from a FAB and semiconductor ecosystem in India will far outweigh any negative, putting a plant close to a nuclear plant and a massive desalination plant to ensure both power, water as well as security will do the job.