US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine • Hacker News Board

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#411

Post by wonminute » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

m-ee wrote: post #333

_wldu wrote: post #211

Covid itself causes blood clotting in many seriously ill patients. A friend, who was in ICU in March 2020, was given Herparin (due to clotting concerns), and was told to take aspirin at home after release. Is it surprising that the vaccines cause clotting too? Isn't this sort of obvious?

No this is a very different form of clotting caused by auto antibodies that causes both clotting and low platelet counts. It's similar to HIT. Giving heparin in this situation would make things worse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heparin-induced_thrombocytopen...

aspirin != heparin. Question, would taking aspirin prior to and after Janssen vaccination lower this risk?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#412

Post by baggy_trough » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:40 PM UTC

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

An utterly appalling decision by CYA bureaucrats or innumerate idiots. The leadership of the CDC and FDA must be replaced.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#413

Post by Trasmatta » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

pablodavila wrote: post #384

I was planning on getting the J&J because I will most likely only be able to get one dose. Is a single dose of the mRNA vaccines effective in any meaningful way?

Yes, perhaps around 80% effective after one dose of mRNA: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-study-shows-single-dose-...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#414

Post by whatshisface » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

baggy_trough wrote: post #412

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

An utterly appalling decision by CYA bureaucrats or innumerate idiots. The leadership of the CDC and FDA must be replaced.

Rare big problems may be indicative of common small problems.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#415

Post by miketery » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:44 PM UTC

whatshisface wrote: post #414

baggy_trough wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An utterly appalling decision by CYA bureaucrats or innumerate idiots. The leadership of the CDC and FDA must be replaced.

Rare big problems may be indicative of common small problems.

Good point, I hadn’t considered this. Also there was the factory QA issue. Possibly much like in aviation , multiple small factors here that need to be addressed and they’re using this as easy excuse to put pause.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#416

Post by FabHK » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

If I have my numbers approximately right, getting the J&J vaccine is a bit safer than taking a plane trip, while getting COVID is about as safe as taking a trip in the space shuttle.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#417

Post by robbiep » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #359

y-c-o-m-b wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting to know. When I got my Pfizer jab, the lady said "oops, I did it wrong" and blood came out. She didn't jab me again though and I just assumed it was good to go. Should she have done it again at a different site? I was told elsewhere that it doesn't make the vaccine any less effective, but I'm curious what others on here think now...

As I understand it the concern isn't effectiveness so much as potential for side effects. An intramuscular injection is meant to stay pretty much in a small area of muscle tissue. If it goes into the vein the vaccine then travels into tissues all over the body.

That’s not really true, we give lots of drugs IM because the muscle is highly vascular so it generally shoots out all over the body really quickly. Ie want to take down a patient with Ice (crystal meth) induced psychosis? IM. Also, it’s hard to miss most of the time.

If you want something to sit around for a long time, you go for less vascular areas. (Ie insulin for diabetics, subcut abdominal fat)

IM is preferred because of the vascularity which helps in the immune response (ie quick immune response, antigen distributed around the body) as well as any immune reaction confined to the muscle rather than, say the skin. (0) is a quick and dirty on mechanisms of administration.

To your earlier point about ‘into’ a vein, I’d never heard of Dr Campbell before you mentioned him, he seems to have great credentials, but I can’t easily explain why an accidental IV administration of an IM vaccine would cause CVST, my gut is that it’s a bit of a hand wave but who knows.

(0) https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2017/11/07/why-arent-vacc...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#418

Post by throwawaysea » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC

It's interesting to me seeing the direct data-based reactions to the pause on the J&J vaccine. For example, Nate Silver of 538 wrote (https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381925025964515330):

> 6 cases out of 7 million people. What a disaster. This is going to get people killed. And it's going to create more vaccine hesitancy. These people don't understand cost-benefit analysis. They keep making mistakes by orders of magnitude.

I am seeing this argument from people of all political views this morning, but I am most surprised to see it from the political left. Why isn't the same data-driven approach used when we're talking about policing, or gun violence, or traffic deaths? In all these cases, the frequency of negative outcomes (policing deaths of unarmed black people, homicides committed with guns, traffic fatalities per mile traveled) is very low and when weighed with the positive outcomes, it is clear that people are acting irrationally when they try to defund police, or ban firearms, or restrict driving. And yet, the data is never brought up so directly in those conversations by either everyday people or news media.

The J&J vaccine issue is frankly less alarming to me than this open hypocrisy or disconnect in our societal discourse.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#419

Post by pithon » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:46 PM UTC

Y_Y wrote: post #59

pithon wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"That’s the same risk as driving London to Liverpool" This was the first one your website presented and I have no idea what it means.

> I have no idea what it means You have the whole internet available. I bet you can work it out without too much effort.

Risk of... dying? Being injured? Being hospitalized? Developing a life-threatening clot? Also it's missing a word "from" but I worked that out. Thanks for your contribution.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#420

Post by galangalalgol » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 4:46 PM UTC

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #403

jdminhbg wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a vaccine for a disease that has killed over half a million people in the US over the past year, not a new breast implant. The rules are not some holy writ handed down from above, they are our way of trying to properly manage risk. When the situation changes, the rules can also change.

> This is a vaccine for a disease that has killed over half a million people in the US over the past year Serious question, how many of those people would have died in the past 12 months if they didn't get COVID? The number is most likely not 500,000, but it also probably isn't 0. Is it most likely something insignificant like 5,000?

Initially the cdc data pointed to about 2/3rds would have died anyway in the same time period in the US, but that was a few months in. Now if you pull total deaths from the cdc, subtract deaths tagged as covid and fit a sinusoid with a 52 week period and a slope for population growth you get a pretty solid fit with the exception of the 2018 and 2015 flu, and last summer. But last summer the sinusoid is under the total daeths minus covid deaths. Integrating the area between I think we undereported covid deaths by about 50k over the summer. We are back down to predictded deaths now without counting covid deaths. So I think all half million deaths are in excess of expected value, plus another 50k.