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18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

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Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#411

Post by ryandrake »

gruturo wrote: post #321
T-hawk wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I said "fuck it, I'm taking my life back" months ago. And then I realized how little that is possible. How are you going to protest your way into a concert that isn't performing? How are you going to demand your way into a university that isn't teaching? How are you going to riot your way into a Disneyland that isn't running? How are you going to force your way into a sports stadium that isn't playing? How are you go…

> We are no longer ever allowed to make personal risk management decisions. Your freedom borders with mine - you should be allowed to do EVERYTHING which doesn't affect others without their consent. Ignoring COVID-19 precautionary measures isn't one of those things, and I am happy the joy-destroying authoritarian overlords took that choice from you.

How is this any different than drunk driving? Risk-taking activities that put both the risk-taker and others in mortal danger.

States seem to be able to punish that kind of risk taking without complaints about "joy-destroying authoritarian overlords".

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#412

Post by hirsin »

giantDinosaur wrote: post #334
hirsin wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every medical professional I know /am related to has indicated that getting covid only grants 90 days immunity. Across state lines, they all have said that herd immunity visa infection is impossible as it requires everyone to be infected within a three month span.

This is charitably a misconception, and very possibly an outright lie. Nothing indicates a 90 day cutoff to immunity. On the face of it, that should make anyone reading this sceptical.

I was very skeptical of it as well, and had the same reaction to the medical professionals saying this. Their off the cuff "oh, yeah, ninety days, makes sense" led to me believe them. Note as well I'm referring only to catching covid - not the vaccine.

There's this early study from July as well https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179?query=fea...

And cdc guidance https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-suggests-reco...

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#413

Post by rossdavidh »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #92
rossdavidh wrote: post #2

...or, at least halfway there (both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses). One dose is probably already somewhat useful, but how useful is not super-well characterized. Still, it's a lot more than a month ago.

I saw a data plot from Pfizer's trial. Between 7 and 14 days after the first shot the number of infections falls off. Also a report from Israel says infections and hospitalizations fall 60% three weeks after the first shot.

Israel is definitely the place we'll see the first big impact (or at least we all really hope so). They are already well past 30% with the first shot. I was kind of nervous last week, when they were the leading nation in the world at getting vaccinated, and simultaneously shooting up to new record highs of new cases. But, this week we are just starting to see the first signs of a beneficial impact. This would suggest that you need something like 30% of population with one shot (depending on how many have already been infected, of course) to see a slowdown.

The U.S. is currently at 5%, and we're actually one of the countries furthest along.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#414

Post by hirsin »

pertymcpert wrote: post #248
hirsin wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every medical professional I know /am related to has indicated that getting covid only grants 90 days immunity. Across state lines, they all have said that herd immunity visa infection is impossible as it requires everyone to be infected within a three month span.

I'm calling bullshit on this. Source?

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179?query=fea...

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-suggests-reco...

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#415

Post by SamBam »

evandijk70 wrote: post #279
SamBam wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Fixating on the vaccination percentage is simply using a number that's two steps removed from what's actually important. It's like trying to decide if it's too rainy to go out by figuring out how many people are watering their yards right now, when you could just look out and see if it's raining.

Still we use weather forecast when we decide to make plans tomorrow. The best way to predict wether we can make plans (summer holidays, festivals, etc.) should involve some combination of the vaccination percentage and epidemological models.

Seeing what the case positivity is this week is the best way to decide whether the vaccine has been effective enough to go out this week.

Looking at the vaccine numbers for this week is a worse proxy. How does it help?

Sure, you could use the projected vaccinations for next March to decide how likely it is that you'll be able to go and watch a broadway show in March, but, like the weather forecast, you'll need to know what the actual positivity is in March to make the final decisions.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#416

Post by [deleted] »

downandout wrote: post #380
diveanon wrote: post #336

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just say no to Q.

What a terribly ignorant comment, but I suppose it is indicative of what HN has devolved into. 500 former world leaders and Nobel Laureates agree with me [1], but random Internet poster guy (along with all of the geniuses that downvoted my comments in this thread) thinks it’s out something straight out of Qanon. My source for that is undoubtedly one you implicitly trust...CNN. Not “Q”. Here is a direct quote from it:…

[deleted]

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#417

Post by nogridbag »

dnautics wrote: post #280
nogridbag wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That has been true for us up until the pandemic - at least in our case. The combination of the school taking extra precautions and parents not sending sick kids to school is working. We've had our daughter in daycare for months with 1 total illness (minor cold). And in that case I believe it was from taking her to outdoor dining. Kids seem to touch every part of those restaurant high chairs which are never sanitized.

> We've had our daughter in daycare for months with 1 total illness (minor cold) To be fair you can't be sure that wasn't covid, unless you have come up seronegative. Not every adult gets it bad

I get your point, but it's really a stretch. There's been no reported cases of covid at our school and the symptoms matched common cold. Sure I guess there's a chance it could have been some mild case of covid the same as it could have been flu or some other illness.

Prior to the pandemic she used to be in a tiny school with 4-6 kids and 2 teachers and she was sick seemingly every other week. The difference seems to be the combination of teachers sanitizing everything, keeping kids in smaller groups, temperature checks, and parents not sending sick kids to school.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#418

Post by berryjerry »

metamet wrote: post #147
berryjerry wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That number does seem like a lot but in the same time period several million people died from other causes. Death is quite natural.

Oh for sure. Grieving over death in 2020 is just all around a bad experience. But I think it's fair to say that the excess deaths [1] in 2020 have certainly amplified the reality of death, especially within the context of a shared experience. My grandma was otherwise healthy and I had had a lot of conversations with her about how much we looked forward to seeing each other once the pandemic was "over". [1] https://ww…

Right, that's my point is that death sucks and it happens a lot. Obviously we would love to prevent all the death we can but just living is not always a good trade off. My grandma for example hasn't been allowed visitors for basically a year and says she would rather be dead.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#419

Post by Gibbon1 »

rossdavidh wrote: post #413
Gibbon1 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw a data plot from Pfizer's trial. Between 7 and 14 days after the first shot the number of infections falls off. Also a report from Israel says infections and hospitalizations fall 60% three weeks after the first shot.

Israel is definitely the place we'll see the first big impact (or at least we all really hope so). They are already well past 30% with the first shot. I was kind of nervous last week, when they were the leading nation in the world at getting vaccinated, and simultaneously shooting up to new record highs of new cases. But, this week we are just starting to see the first signs of a beneficial impact. This would suggest…

At 30% with first shot they're probably half way there to effective herd immunity. One thing I read out of Israel was vaccinating the most venerable would bring the death rate down dramatically. Something like a 80/20 applies.

What I'm worried about is a surge in infections in the gap between population wide herd immunity and just most the venerable. As the death rate falls people will get really careless.

Re: 18.7 Million Americans Vaccinated

#420

Post by hsbauauvhabzb »

loveistheanswer wrote: post #386
hsbauauvhabzb wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry if your government cares more about your peers’ health than your entertainment values. Thoughts and prayers.

It clearly doesn't though. Obesity and heart disease have been killing far more people in the US than covid and yet Mcdonalds and Coke advertisements are everywhere inbetween television entertainment. Also note obesity/heart disease are among the greatest risk factors of poor health outcomes for covid. Why is there little to no mention of eating healthy and exercising in the government's health guidelines to combat t…

Overeating and poor exercise only hurts yourself. The difference is that you going to a concert, contracting corona and passing it around our household/workplace may kill somebody completely unrelated to the initial risk vector, how would you feel if your neighbour eating McDonald’s directly affected your health?
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