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Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

latimes.com

411–415 of 415 posts

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#411
post #45

I wonder if we could implement some sort of cap and trade system to make everyone happy? Everyone could be rationed a certain number of gatherings per month and then each person would be free to choose how to use them. They could use one to see family during the holidays, they could go to a protest, go to a wedding, celebrate in the street, go to a movie, etc. We could even track them as discrete tokens, or "social c…

I can't believe people are seriously suggesting things like this over THIS particular virus.

I'm pretty sure it's satire. I agree, this virus is absurdly not worth it. We're acting like it's Ebola or something

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#412
post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>After all, masks and social distancing work, right? funny how critical examination of that premise is not allowed.

Of course it's allowed. But you should come armed with epidemiological data that contradicts the evidence and studies already out there. That's the language that epidemiologists speak. And extraordinary claims that contradict both the data and common sense require extraordinary evidence. Merely questioning it without a plausible explanation that is consistent with the existing data is a distraction. Why should anyone…

"Of course it's allowed. But you should come armed with epidemiological data that contradicts the evidence and studies already out there. That's the language that epidemiologists speak."

Interesting that you should say that. The Danish RCT for masks as PPE was just published this week, and showed no statistical effect of masks on protection against SARS-CoV2:

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

Despite this study being high quality, the only randomized controlled trial of masks and SARS-CoV2, and of pressing public interest, it was rejected by no fewer than three major scientific journals before publication. That's...unusual, to say the least:

https://www.berlingske.dk/videnskab/professor-stort-dansk-ma...

As a scientist, it has been dismaying to me how willing the scientific community has been to engage in censorship of unpopular opinions in 2020. Even the highest quality evidence is being actively suppressed, if it doesn't fit the "consensus viewpoint".

"And extraordinary claims that contradict both the data and common sense require extraordinary evidence."

In the case of medical interventions, the historical convention is that you do nothing if you cannot prove effectiveness. Said differently: claiming that an intervention works is an extraordinary claim. Assuming that it does not work is, quite literally, the null hypothesis.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#413
post #28

According to the article, the result was 177 infections and 7 deaths. That's almost %4 death rate, way over the official US death rate. Any idea why would that be?

"Two-thirds of the facility’s residents were at least 75 years old, and 88% of them had at least one preexisting medical condition that could have made them more vulnerable to the virus. Six of the residents ultimately died of COVID-19. All of them were at least 60 years old and had at least one preexisting medical condition." 6/7 deaths were from elderly people with pre-existing conditions in a long-term care facili…

The list of conditions that increase death rate are pretty wide:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precaut...

E.g. severe obese is one of them as well.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#414
post #75
post #20

What are HNers planning to do for the holidays? We’re seriously considering not seeing anyone, not even parents, even though my SO has had COVID already (she works at a hospital and contracted it from COVID patients). Stories like this are the main reason. Even if no one at the party gets very ill, the chance of further spreading it to others seriously scares me.

My parents live in the same city as me. I'll probably spend the day before thanksgiving in line to get a rapid swab, then bike to their place and eat some bird.

on further reflection I'm not going to their's; gonna facetime them and have some food with the people in my bubble. Just not the move right now to push the limits.

Re: Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

#415
post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course it's allowed. But you should come armed with epidemiological data that contradicts the evidence and studies already out there. That's the language that epidemiologists speak. And extraordinary claims that contradict both the data and common sense require extraordinary evidence. Merely questioning it without a plausible explanation that is consistent with the existing data is a distraction. Why should anyone…

"Of course it's allowed. But you should come armed with epidemiological data that contradicts the evidence and studies already out there. That's the language that epidemiologists speak." Interesting that you should say that. The Danish RCT for masks as PPE was just published this week, and showed no statistical effect of masks on protection against SARS-CoV2: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817 Despite t…

From that study:

> Limitations: ... no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others.

This has always been the main motivation for mask wearing, but the study you cite didn't attempt to answer it.

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