Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus • Hacker News Board

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#411

Post by slowmovintarget » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 6:56 PM UTC

tasty_freeze wrote: post #389

Pardon my cynicism, but it seems like many of the actions the administration is pushing are simply things they were pushing already and are using this health crisis as cudgel to help get what they want. What we need are lower interest rates! What we need is to limit immigration from Mexico (even though the US has a higher infection rate and there isn't any talk of limiting flights from, say, England). What we need to…

"Never let a good crisis go to waste." -- Rahm Emmanuel

New gov, same as the old gov?

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#412

Post by downerending » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 7:00 PM UTC

jstepka wrote: post #409

downerending wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unclear. Can't find a link, but I recall reading that if you were within 50m (?) of a norovirus patient when they vomited, you had a noticeable chance of catching the bug yourself.

social distancing is the cancelation of conferences (google canceled theirs), not having sporting events (italy), not sending kids to school, etc, etc.

I see this phrase used to describe maintaining a larger personal space, like one or two meters, which is what I had in mind.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#413

Post by bendbro » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 7:01 PM UTC

dv_dt wrote: post #396

bendbro wrote: post #385

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am fine with this. Bernie Sanders once said mass immigration was a "koch brothers scheme." I agree with this sentiment. Increases in GDP don't seem to help the lower class. As GDP has risen, inflation adjusted income has flatlined. As population has increased, and as housing investment gone higher, housing prices have skyrocketed.

I think you are confusing Sanders position against fully open borders vs an allowed, but controlled immigration process.

Allowed but controlled immigration is what I believe the result of Republican efforts has been. Sure, they probably want to decrease immigration even further, but they haven't gotten policy that far yet.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#414

Post by SkyPuncher » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 7:01 PM UTC

dageshi wrote: post #406

tasty_freeze wrote: post #389

Pardon my cynicism, but it seems like many of the actions the administration is pushing are simply things they were pushing already and are using this health crisis as cudgel to help get what they want. What we need are lower interest rates! What we need is to limit immigration from Mexico (even though the US has a higher infection rate and there isn't any talk of limiting flights from, say, England). What we need to…

The administration doesn't direct interest rate policy, the FED does, within the context of the FED's mandate a rate drop isn't unexpected during an event like this.

> The administration doesn't direct interest rate policy, the FED does,

Given that the administration choose exactly who leads the FED, they're not exactly independent either.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#415

Post by cmer » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 7:02 PM UTC

dageshi wrote: post #406

tasty_freeze wrote: post #389

Pardon my cynicism, but it seems like many of the actions the administration is pushing are simply things they were pushing already and are using this health crisis as cudgel to help get what they want. What we need are lower interest rates! What we need is to limit immigration from Mexico (even though the US has a higher infection rate and there isn't any talk of limiting flights from, say, England). What we need to…

The administration doesn't direct interest rate policy, the FED does, within the context of the FED's mandate a rate drop isn't unexpected during an event like this.

To be fair, Trump has been pushing the Fed around non-stop. They basically follow his indirect orders. All for political gain at the expense of the future. It's pretty pathetic.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#416

Post by gdubs » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 7:05 PM UTC

learc83 wrote: post #392

fauigerzigerk wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I'm most interested in is the hospitalisation rate and if we can slow down infections enough for hospitals to be able to cope. I think the death rate will ultimately depend on whether everyone who needs hospital treatment can get it. And that's why I think the Diamond Princess may not be representative of what happens in the real world.

On the people on the Diamond Princess there are 36 critical cases + 6 dead. So 42/705 infected, so 6% likely needed to be hospitalized. But, the demographics skewed older than the general population, and there were 3200 people on board in basically a worst case scenario for spread. So 42/3200 is ~1% of a much older population.

Aren’t the hospitalization rates something like ~20% according to the main study that came out of China? Also, the cruise ship cases aren’t all resolved outcomes yet.

Edit: link to China study summary below, but including it top-level here as well.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#417

Post by LifeLiverTransp » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 7:06 PM UTC

kickopotomus wrote: post #315

hurricanetc wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People keep saying that responses are irrational but we know next to nothing about this virus. We don’t have a firm understanding of how deadly it is, how long it takes to incubate, how easily it can be spread, or what long term damage it could do to people who recover. There are reports of kidney damage and damage to fertility among men who have recovered. Are those true? We don’t know. We have no idea. The rational…

No, we know quite a bit about it at this point. The incubation period can range from 1-14 days but is 5 days on average[1][2]. The virus spreads through physical contact with commonly touched surfaces and through the air via droplets of saliva or mucus[2]. The deadliness of the disease is also becoming clear as time progresses. The current fatality rate is ~3% (likely overestimated) and most (almost all) deaths are e…

A fast spreading virus, can mutate at any given time. Making this the first wave of the real pandemic. We are not worried about COVID, but a SARS-COVID in the making in some lung somewhere.

With authoritys showing how little they where able to handle one epidemic, trust that they would decently handle a real big one in the 2nd wave is not low- its none existant at this point. And propagandizing and debunkery does not win that trust back. This is not a fear mongering issue, this is a real quality of government and institutional work issue.

How to put this discredit of a whole ruling caste into words. Its like the major of pompej trying to explain away a volcanic erruption as something good (ash is a fertilizer) because there is no just no plans for evacuating the city- the major cant even imagine the city evacuated.

The whole system (including the oppossition) displays a handicap (due to mixed up prioritys, whatever...), unable to perform simple tasks and use of necessary capabilitys, which other, democratic countrys (south korea) clearly process and display.

If there was the choice, im pretty sure there would by now in europe and america a majority for ousting the whole political caste- and replace them with capable government as displayed in south korea, taiwan and similar capable castes. And that view is bipartisanal by now.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#418

Post by fauigerzigerk » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 7:08 PM UTC

learc83 wrote: post #392

fauigerzigerk wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I'm most interested in is the hospitalisation rate and if we can slow down infections enough for hospitals to be able to cope. I think the death rate will ultimately depend on whether everyone who needs hospital treatment can get it. And that's why I think the Diamond Princess may not be representative of what happens in the real world.

On the people on the Diamond Princess there are 36 critical cases + 6 dead. So 42/705 infected, so 6% likely needed to be hospitalized. But, the demographics skewed older than the general population, and there were 3200 people on board in basically a worst case scenario for spread. So 42/3200 is ~1% of a much older population.

I would like to know how many of the 705 have recovered, how many are still ill, and how many were admitted to hospital.

If 42 were critical, that doesn't necessarily mean they were the only ones who needed hospital treatment.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#419

Post by rtkwe » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 7:10 PM UTC

a_tractor wrote: post #225

rtkwe wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stagnant or not the real question is what would have happened if the bank wasn't holding all those stocks? That is did buying all those stocks/ETFs successfully prop up the economy that would have otherwise gone into a recession or worse or did it cause the stagnation?

The argument could (and should more often) be made that recessions are sometimes healthy and that propping up failed or stagnant businesses or industries usually only prolongs the suffering. It also locks up resources that could be invested elsewhere in less entrenched but more promising new growth areas. So I would argue that it is likely to cause the stagnation To use an analogy from botany, its like how certain ty…

From a purely macroeconomic sense you're probably right but if we zoom in there's huge amounts of pain that don't go away when the economy turns around. People get worse educations because they can't afford to go to college/university or get sick and can't get treatment and wind up with long term health problems. [0] It's a problem that shows up everywhere in trying to discuss and measure how well the economy is doing, the top level numbers keep going up but it doesn't translate to the kind of generational improvements in wages or standards of living we used to see.

[0] Admittedly this is more of a problem in places without a national health service like the US.

Re: Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

#420

Post by learc83 » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 7:12 PM UTC

gdubs wrote: post #416

learc83 wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the people on the Diamond Princess there are 36 critical cases + 6 dead. So 42/705 infected, so 6% likely needed to be hospitalized. But, the demographics skewed older than the general population, and there were 3200 people on board in basically a worst case scenario for spread. So 42/3200 is ~1% of a much older population.

Aren’t the hospitalization rates something like ~20% according to the main study that came out of China? Also, the cruise ship cases aren’t all resolved outcomes yet. Edit: link to China study summary below, but including it top-level here as well. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...

We don't have any idea what the hospitalization rates are. We only know what the hospitalization rates are for people who have a confirmed diagnosis, which skews towards people with severe symptoms.

>Also, the cruise ship cases aren’t all resolved outcomes yet.

No they aren't, but the vast majority have been symptomatic longer than the average time till hospitalization and the number in critical condition hasn't increased in days. It's very unlikely they'll get to anywhere near 20%. And this is in a more geriatric population.