NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say • Hacker News Board

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#411

Post by tokyodude » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 10:00 AM UTC

DoubleGlazing wrote: post #151

The problem with urban transport systems is that no one sees them for what they really are... an expensive thing that drives the economy. There seems to be an obsession in the west with making public transport pay for itself, but the reality is that a few billion invested in better public transport results in a lot more billions being made elsewhere. We need to get away from this idea that public transport systems ne…

Japan is doing pretty well I believe because they privatized the transportation system and set up the incentives so the better the transportation does the more profit the transportation company makes.

The Tokyu Corporation (one of the 10 or so companies running trains in Tokyo) is currently building several 20 to 40 story buildings in Shibuya, one of which Google Japan will move into next September. They make money renting the building all of which are next to their station

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#412

Post by ricardoreis » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 10:02 AM UTC

CydeWeys wrote: post #266

ricardoreis wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except start-up cost Which is, well, hugely significant when you think about it.

Cities should have a planning timeframe for infrastructure improvements with a horizon longer than a couple years.

Well, yeah. And they should probably be having discussions based on something beside snarky retorts and popcorn-throwing too, I guess.

But I guess those discussions will need to happen elsewhere.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#413

Post by jen20 » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 10:45 AM UTC

cascom wrote: post #167

endorphone wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The NYC MTA has a lot of workers who do enormous amount of overtime, which explains the high pay. Add that a good percentage of employees will be relatively specialized trades. A cursory search shows a train driver making $31/hr, which doesn't seem excessive. I am also wary of the tactic of showing MTA workers as over-paid compared to a notoriously underpaid profession (e.g. teachers, who in this case held barely abo…

you mean $31/hr + medical + pension and medical in retirement... again for teachers you are forgetting the fact that they have similar generous benefits and only work 3/4 of the year...

I don't have a horse in this race, but remember that what looks "generous" to you in New York City is considered "table stakes for a civilised society" in Europe.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#414

Post by Dowwie » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 11:29 AM UTC

Curious whether Uber or Lyft riders will change their behaviors as the toll on public transit becomes more salient..

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#415

Post by chiefalchemist » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 11:39 AM UTC

closeparen wrote: post #355

chiefalchemist wrote: post #278

"The system’s financial straits have gotten worse in part because it has fewer riders, and is collecting less money in fares." If there are less riders to serves doesn't logic dictate service levels be adjusted to fit market conditions? Given that this might be the key fact in the whoke article, the article should have detailed why rider volume is down.

Why would it dictate that? Choosier consumers with more options require you to step up your game to compete. The point of the death spiral is that ridership is down due to reliability issues, which will get worse due to less fare revenue, driving ridership down further.

Why? Why not? If you need to move 1000 people to a given destination over an hour, and you run every 15 mins, and 1000 drops to 800, then approx every 20 mins will do.

But that's not drop in service (as it will be spun). That's just a common sense response to the needs of the market.

The problem is, any elected official who champions such common sense won't get elected / re-elected. Simply because it will be sold to the public as a drop in service. This why public programs always grow and too rarely never re-adjust (smaller) when appropriate.

Note: The article did __not__ say why ridership is down. It mentioned the reliability issue but doesn't name it as the sole reason. For all we know more people are walking because the need the exercise. Or perhaps those at the bottom of the economic ladder can't afford to ride.

Obviously, the former is good news. Healthcare is expensive. Obesity is a real issue.

Obviously, the latter is bad news. And few elected officials what to be the ones to say they haven't been doing what they said they were doing.

Or perhaps tourism is down? Which again, is not a feather in any politician's cap.

Anecdotally, I live in Central NJ. To take the train to NYC I have to pay approx $10 to park. That makes the round trip approx $40. In my mind, at $40 p/p p/trip, that's coming up on $50, opposed to a (psychological) shade over $25.

The article makes no mention of possible external factors.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#416

Post by afterburner » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 11:46 AM UTC

culturestate wrote: post #305

afterburner wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Calm down, he didn't say it was the absolute cheapest, just that it was cheap. As a side note, there sure are a lot of people in China that get prickly about the definition of "developed".

I'm neither upset nor in China; just pointing out that if you expand your definition of the "developed world" beyond Europe and the US, the NYC MTA goes from "insanely cheap" to comparably priced or even mildly expensive :)

> My morning commute in Hong Kong

> I'm neither upset nor in China

The fuck

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#417

Post by majewsky » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 12:46 PM UTC

Markoff wrote: post #141

majewsky wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was actually really surprised when I first found out that subway systems in many large systems shut down at night. I live in a modestly-sized city (Dresden, Germany, ~500k inhabitants), and the local transport authority prides itself on operating nearly the entire tram network (plus some important bus services) 24/7. Just this year, they have actually increased the schedule density during weekend nights. Trams now…

you are comparing apples and oranges, buses/trams run 24/7 with lower interval in night pretty much everywhere, subway not so much

Why though? Maintenance hours?

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#418

Post by village-idiot » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 1:17 PM UTC

ProfessorLayton wrote: post #246

tikhonj wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also interesting how people don't see public roads in the same way—people don't expect roads to cover their own expenses directly, expect free parking as a human right and bridle at toll roads or gasoline taxes. People need to see public transport as "roads that don't need cars".

Except that most of the wear and tear on our roads isn't caused by people's cars. People pay much more than their fair share of road maintenance via gas taxes etc than the industries that cause the most damage to the roads. Semis cause 1,400x more wear than cars [1]. [1] https://www.lrrb.org/pdf/201432.pdf

It’s actually non drivers who pay. Gas taxes cover less than 50% of road cost on average.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#419

Post by village-idiot » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 1:18 PM UTC

briandear wrote: post #370

neltnerb wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or the externalities are properly priced and the vast majority of the miles of transport are done by train, which would be cheaper if trucks had to pay for the road maintenance they cause. And cause less pollution (both in ton-miles and from reduced emissions during repaving). And the potatoes end up costing what they cost to get to you? I'm not sure the potato subsidy is worth distorting the transport economics.

Trucks do “pay.” They move goods that are sold and taxed. Until subways start shipping things other than people, they can’t be considered the same as roads. A subway can move people around; roads also move significant goods around. Every single thing in a store has arrived by road for at least some portion of the journey. Farmers aren’t shipping carrots via tram.

What in the world are you talking about? Are you claiming that farmers never use trains to ship produce? Because that’s just patently false.

Re: NYC subway and bus services have entered 'death spiral', experts say

#420

Post by village-idiot » Wed, Nov 21, 2018, 1:25 PM UTC

siculars wrote: post #180

temp-dude-87844 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with this sentiment, but it's worth pointing out that nearly all transportation projects from the "old days" around the world were done by private companies, and often met a swift end in bankruptcy. Creditors lost a lot, but the assets were then picked up by others, and refined through years of trial and error into endeavors of modest profitability. Only our sepia-colored glasses and the survival bia…

I'll take issue with your thesis. I was once standing in Marin county overlooking the Golden Gate bridge, there I read a plaque describing how the bridge was built ahead of schedule and under budget - in the 1930s (no computers!). Behind the Golden gate bridge in the distance you see the Bay bridge, built with tremendous cost overruns and delays measured in billions of dollars and many years, respectively. I'll make…

You only notice the broken ones.

As a nation we have delivered a massive and continuous civil project for the past 70 years: our sprawling suburban road & utility network. Nobody ever notices it because roads are just background at this point.