Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

business.financialpost.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

411–420 of 629 posts

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#411

Post by sauere »

msvan wrote: post #82

It seems like many major cities of the world are experiencing this problem, and no city has been able to come up with a good solution. It always leads to displacement and newspaper articles about displacement, but no real solutions. Here are a couple of solutions: 1. Build really tall. Hasn't worked out all that great in Hong Kong, though. 2. Rent control. This is often unfair and inflates price of non-rent controlle…

4. is the only solution.

Politicians can put as many fancy well-intended laws in place as they want. All these laws will have only have minimal effects on the underlying supply and demand market forces. In fact, chances are that those laws will even increase the overall average rent due to the added bureaucratic overhead und regulations that are indirectly passed on to the tenants.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#412

Post by xenadu02 »

Agustus wrote: post #334
yellowbeard wrote: post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prop 13 has been argued (I'd say convincingly) to reduce liquidity: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11108 (Less churn - opposite of what you hypothesize)

How does Prop 13 work? The people who wrote that paper are saying that it is a subsidy; absolutely not. The tax rate is frozen, so as I understand it, the person simply pays a lower rate, it is not a system where a tax is paid and then has it refunded to them. I am going to be highly critical of an economic research paper that looks at a tax as a subsidy, so here we go: 1. A tax rate lower because of a law than your…

Texas limits yearly increases to 10%. Yes in hot markets this suppressed the tax increases but your taxes will eventually catch up.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#413

Post by CountSessine »

fleitz wrote: post #399
brc wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's even worse in Australia, which most properties do not have a yearly property tax. So you pay a 'stamp duty' when you purchase the property, based on a % of the sale price. This means you have people living in Sydney with multi-million dollar properties - which are just modest houses in now-desirable suburbs - who haven't paid any property tax since the 60's, and who can't move anywhere because they'd be up for s…

Its the exact same thing here in Vancouver, there are even protests because someone is going to tear down a small house that fits one family and build a bigger house on the same property that fits multiple families. We have a low interest rate fuelled asset bubble and 1%'ers are complaining that they can't afford detached housing in Vancouver, never realizing that if everyone in Vancouver live in detached housing we'…

Its the exact same thing here in Vancouver, there are even protests because someone is going to tear down a small house that fits one family and build a bigger house on the same property that fits multiple families.

This is new - has the owner said that multiple families will live in that house?

It's stupid to expect to be able to live in detached housing in a world class city

Since when did Vancouver become a world class city? I don't mean that to be cruel; I live here myself. But Vancouver has neither the culture nor the power nor the money to be considered world class. The people are poor, the economy has a paucity of opportunities, and now the housing really is only marginally affordable, even if you go out somewhere crazy far like White Rock.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#414

Post by neptunespear »

CountSessine wrote: post #371
neptunespear wrote: post #299

I live in Vancouver. Well, Burnaby. Like many Vancouverites on HN I am studying for a comp sci degree, and want to work as a developer. I accept that I have to make sacrifices to keep living in Vancouver, such as: -Living in a suburb (like Burnaby) -Getting roommates/a shared room -Living on a bus route instead of being a 5 minute walk from Skytrain With those sacrifices, I can find rents for $750-1000/month. $750 is…

As an established middle-aged software developer with a family living in Burnaby who cannot move now because of custody issues, I'm going to give you the same advice I give to all of the engineering co-ops I work with. You should move out of the Vancouver area as soon as you get your degree. I don't think that you're ever going to have a problem finding 1 bedroom accommodations in Vancouver because that's what develo…

Despite your persuasive argument, I like it here.

The US is broken, politically and socioeconomically. The Senate will block any bills for a constitutional amendment to get money out of politics, and a Constitutional Convention will mean all amendments will be on the line, including the 1st Amendment (libertarians will cry "freeze speech") and 2A (gun owners will cry "the gubmint is taking our guns away"). I really don't see a bright side to America's future. Canada has been a well-run country, even under Harper, and I am optimistic about what Trudeau Jr. will be able to accomplish.

Calgary represents everything that I think is wrong with Canada--sorry, Nenshi, I like you, but the people of your city are holding Canada back. (the CPC, putting the economic eggs into the oil basket, and so on.) Plus, Calgary has less dev opportunities than Vancouver since everything is dependent on oil and gas.

I don't like the weather in eastern Canada. The winters are too cold, the summers are too hot and humid. By the way, it's much more common to have sleet, ice storms and hard-packed dirty slush/ice than freshly fallen snow. The rain keeps everything green and the temperatures in summer rarely gets above 25 degrees. So much better than 30 degrees (with 40 humidex).

Toronto too sprawling of a city, and amalgamation (just like it did in Ottawa and Halifax) has pitted suburbanites against urban dwellers, as manifested in Rob Ford and John Tory. Also, the 905 belt carried Mike Harris (Ontario PCs) in the 90s, and his "Common Sense Revolution" permanently sabotaged Toronto's public transportation infrastructure.

Quebec is a beacon of corruption. Remember that SQ officer who wasn't charged for a fatal hit-and-run with his cruiser? Montreal is owned by the Mob. Mr. Sidewalk, the Big Owe, etc. The infrastructure is literally crumbling (like the Highway 19 overpass collapse in Laval in 2006) because of how corrupt the city of Montreal is.

I'm young and I don't want kids. I do not believe that yellow peril is the driving factor in housing costs. Certainly it's a factor, but no one can say how much of a factor it is without solid data. I'm staying, and you can't stop me!

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#415

Post by [deleted] »

CountSessine wrote: post #371
neptunespear wrote: post #299

I live in Vancouver. Well, Burnaby. Like many Vancouverites on HN I am studying for a comp sci degree, and want to work as a developer. I accept that I have to make sacrifices to keep living in Vancouver, such as: -Living in a suburb (like Burnaby) -Getting roommates/a shared room -Living on a bus route instead of being a 5 minute walk from Skytrain With those sacrifices, I can find rents for $750-1000/month. $750 is…

As an established middle-aged software developer with a family living in Burnaby who cannot move now because of custody issues, I'm going to give you the same advice I give to all of the engineering co-ops I work with. You should move out of the Vancouver area as soon as you get your degree. I don't think that you're ever going to have a problem finding 1 bedroom accommodations in Vancouver because that's what develo…

[deleted]

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#416

Post by CountSessine »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #409
CountSessine wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What evidence is there that foreign ownership is a major problem? I've heard plenty of anecdotes, but no actual data. I do know that Vancouver real estate agents are milking the "yellow peril" for all it's worth. "Buy now before China owns all of Vancouver!". It's pretty easy to find them. Google 'Andy Yan'; he's an economist at UBC who did the most recent study. Suffice to say, Canadians are doing what American's di…

China has a punishing inheritance tax, really? China has no inheritance tax, it also lacks a property tax or even a capital gains tax. Libertarians would love it here if it weren't for the police state... Why Chinese buy abroad: to park money outside of China, to participate in real estate markets leased screwed up than their own (say what you want about Vancouver, it isn't anywhere near as bad as Beijing Shanghai Sh…

China has a punishing inheritance tax, really? China has no inheritance tax

Sorry; proposed inheritance tax.

http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-proposed-inheritance-tax-meets...

My point stands; Canadian interest rates could double and Vancouver house prices wouldn't budge; some Canadians would have their homes foreclosed on, but there's so much money in the market from China that homes here would still be unaffordable to people working in Canada and paying Canadian taxes.

This just isn't a 'bubble'.

China has no inheritance tax, it also lacks a property tax or even a capital gains tax. Libertarians would love it here if it weren't for the police state...

Nice! This sounds like a pretty good way to game the system; earn all your money in a tax-less free-wheeling libertarian wonderland, cash out, then bring your millions to a place with no wealth tax! The new place will have lots of social services and lots of burdensome income taxes for the locals to pay for them, but you made your money and you don't have income to tax! Win!

I should figure out how to get in on this.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#417

Post by neptunespear »

Jagerbizzle wrote: post #376
retbull wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live as a developer in Seattle. Right now I live 45 min from downtown on a bus route with a roommate and I pay more rent for half an apartment than you do for your full one.

I'm a developer in Seattle that moved here from Vancouver. While rent isn't much cheaper here, the cost of living is lower and my net income is 50% higher now than it was in Vancouver, not taking the exchange rate into account at all. After 3 years here I've now purchased a townhouse in Cap Hill. I could have never afforded the house I just purchased in a comparable Vancouver neighborhood.

I want to ask you, do you think that there are wider class divides in Seattle than in Vancouver? I hear all the time about BLM marches, May Day riots, anti-gentrification/anti-Amazon vandalism, no-whites-allowed yoga, SPD brutality, etc. in Seattle. Whereas in Vancouver, our local Occupy Vancouver movement dissipated quickly. Someone once told me that in Seattle (and SF), there are a lot of desperate people because class is divided in a way that I (as a Canadian) am not used to.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#418

Post by switchbak »

throwaway23333 wrote: post #389
yelnatz wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really painful. Having average home price of $1.8m while the median salary is at $60k. Something really needs to be done to help out Vancouverites.

I don't understand why everybody keeps talking about the "average home price" and comparing it to salaries. Homes in good neighborhoods in Vancouver are nowhere near that price unless you want to live in a little mansion. And I'm fairly certain that the median salary is largely comprised of the service industry. The other thing I keep seeing is "in Quebec it's much more affordable..." Yes, and your salary would be mu…

Given that 91% of homes are now valued at > 1 million, I think you're quite wrong on this point.

Mansions do throw off the average, no doubt, but there's no denying that the typical house price for a typical Vancouverite is now north of a million dollars:

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2016/01/vancouver-homes-valued-1-...

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#419

Post by sauere »

neves wrote: post #176
msvan wrote: post #82

It seems like many major cities of the world are experiencing this problem, and no city has been able to come up with a good solution. It always leads to displacement and newspaper articles about displacement, but no real solutions. Here are a couple of solutions: 1. Build really tall. Hasn't worked out all that great in Hong Kong, though. 2. Rent control. This is often unfair and inflates price of non-rent controlle…

German has some solutions: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/how-germany-achieved...

I think the conclusions drawn in this post are outdated.

The german real estate market was undervalued for a very long time. In the last 10 years there has been a very rapid (100%+) rent increase in the cities and a massive property rush from foreign investors in the in major cities (especially Berlin). Another factor to consider: seeing that 1.5million+ "refugees" came to Germany in 2015 alone, these increases will become even sharper over the next few years.

Re: Without affordable housing, Vancouver risks becoming an economic ghost town

#420

Post by seanmcdirmid »

CountSessine wrote: post #416
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has a punishing inheritance tax, really? China has no inheritance tax, it also lacks a property tax or even a capital gains tax. Libertarians would love it here if it weren't for the police state... Why Chinese buy abroad: to park money outside of China, to participate in real estate markets leased screwed up than their own (say what you want about Vancouver, it isn't anywhere near as bad as Beijing Shanghai Sh…

China has a punishing inheritance tax, really? China has no inheritance tax Sorry; proposed inheritance tax. http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-proposed-inheritance-tax-meets... My point stands; Canadian interest rates could double and Vancouver house prices wouldn't budge; some Canadians would have their homes foreclosed on, but there's so much money in the market from China that homes here would still be unaffordable to…

That is quite old. Anyways, taxes are not a problem in China yet.

Anyways we've seen is before with the Japanese in the 80s, and it eventually all crashed down, leaving the Vancouver/Seattle/California real estate markets in a rut for more than a decade! I'm guessing when the Chinese economy comes back down to earth, the exact same thing is going to happen again.

Post reply on HN