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What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

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Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#401

Post by yuye »

IshKebab wrote: post #101
ballsac wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

I haven't. Around the start of 2026 is pretty widely mentioned as when they went from "this is broken slop" to "huh this is actually 90% what I would have written", which matches my experience.

>"huh this is actually 90% what I would have written"

The last 10% is always the hardest part, though

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#402

Post by lazide »

nozzlegear wrote: post #334
GeoAtreides wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Long story short, I think narrative of job loss is way overblown. Long story short, I ate dinner so I think the narrative of people over the world being hungry is way overblown.

How many studies do we need showing that AI isn't causing massive job loss before you'll believe it? This isn't the first one showing these results.

why does massive job loss have to be due to AI?

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#403

Post by rightbyte »

qwerpy wrote: post #388
3ff3 wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[dead]

Yes, I'll continue stupidly looking at data and putting the safety of my family in the hands of the safer option. If only I could be smart enough to use emotion-based politics to make those decisions instead.

> emotion-based politics

I would say Elon Musk is deep into emotion based politics. All edgelord. All vibes.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#404

Post by underlipton »

AbsurdCensor wrote: post #329
underlipton wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>programmers and IT were severely overhired during the pandemic 1) I hesitate to believe that losses were disproportionately technical roles as opposed to administrative. 2) Over-hired by what metric? It's well known that hiring never fully recovered after the GFC; was the recruitment post-pandemic just bringing us to parity with where we had been 20 years earlier? Not to say that I disagree with your following point…

They were hired at a higher rate than anytime since the 90s. In the US they ballooned by almost 50%. So when you take layoffs in consideration, the US is still has 25% more programmers than it did prior to the pandemic. And looking at the hiring rates and who is getting hired in programming, it looks like companies aren’t hiring entry level basically at all at this point, so shows the market is still over saturated.…

The hiring rate can be high while companies are still understaffed, and I think that's the case. A US that has 25% more programmers than it did prior to the pandemic is likely still some double-digit or triple-digit percentage short of the number of programmers it SHOULD have in order to house productive businesses that aren't constantly burning through workers (and consequently missing out on the development of deep institutional knowledge). I'm unconvinced that burning capital on data centers and seven-figure ICs was the right move, compared to building a solid and stable workforce.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#405

Post by qwerpy »

rightbyte wrote: post #403
qwerpy wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, I'll continue stupidly looking at data and putting the safety of my family in the hands of the safer option. If only I could be smart enough to use emotion-based politics to make those decisions instead.

> emotion-based politics I would say Elon Musk is deep into emotion based politics. All edgelord. All vibes.

Yeah but I’m not driving an Elon. I’m driving a Tesla.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#406

Post by tptacek »

jcranmer wrote: post #233
ballsac wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in 2026? 5? 4? 3? Heard this one way too many times.

Since so many people are doubting you here, here is a post from ~a year ago that's pulling the same "LLMs 6 months ago were crap, now they're awesome" shtick: https://fly.io/blog/youre-all-nuts/ . There's more posts along this vein being put out from 2024 on or so.

I'm just now seeing this because I periodically read all your comments, but, as the author of this post: what was your point here? This isn't a "schtick" from me; I wrote it once, after observing exactly the one thing the post observes (that critics of coding LLMs were premising their argument on things that were no longer true, or in some cases had never been true), and the subsequent year largely bore those observations out.

I didn't then create a side hustle for repeatedly re-observing that thing.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#409

Post by dang »

iLoveOncall wrote: post #172
simonw wrote: post #2

A challenge with this kind of study is that coding agents (Claude Code, OpenAI Codex) only started working really well in late November, which for most people meant early January due to the December break. General agents (OpenClaw, Anthropic Copilot, ChatGPT "Work") started working even later than that. This category of software may have a much more meaningful impact on work than the mostly-chat systems we were using…

[flagged]

You can't attack another user like this here, and we ban accounts that do, so please don't do it again.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Edit: it looks like your account has posted over a dozen of these hostile replies to the same user. This borders on harassment and certainly is not a good way to participate in the community. Please stop doing this and focus instead of using HN as intended: to explore things that you're personally curious about, not to prosecute agendas.

Edit 2: attacking other users, as you did at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49086538, is obviously not ok either. If you keep breaking HN's rules, we are going to ban you, so please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to them going forward.

Re: What is happening to jobs? Separating AI hype from reality

#410

Post by rightbyte »

qwerpy wrote: post #405
rightbyte wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> emotion-based politics I would say Elon Musk is deep into emotion based politics. All edgelord. All vibes.

Yeah but I’m not driving an Elon. I’m driving a Tesla.

Yes but Elon is driving you. A remote controll to steer your car. He got it.

I would short the telephone antenna if I were you.

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