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A graph that should be front-page news

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Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#401

Post by hamilyon2 »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #217
andy_ppp wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can understand the desire to be concerned about the climate systems that keep earth habitable for humans starting to break down might come with some extreme views. It seems almost thinking we can continue as normal given the predictions of climate scientists are now coming true, is the extreme views. I worry that these climate scientists might have under egged their estimates due to a “sensible mindset” rather than…

The data seem to suggest an urgent need for solar radiation management because reducing fossil fuel consumption to a negative value isn't really a viable plan, as it turns out. Instead, we will have to use technology to solve the problem, surprise surprise. Calcium carbonate has the benefit of de acidifying the ocean.

Nobody tried planet-scale geo engineering before, as far as I understand the opinions on it's effectiveness vary.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#402

Post by pstuart »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #217
andy_ppp wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can understand the desire to be concerned about the climate systems that keep earth habitable for humans starting to break down might come with some extreme views. It seems almost thinking we can continue as normal given the predictions of climate scientists are now coming true, is the extreme views. I worry that these climate scientists might have under egged their estimates due to a “sensible mindset” rather than…

The data seem to suggest an urgent need for solar radiation management because reducing fossil fuel consumption to a negative value isn't really a viable plan, as it turns out. Instead, we will have to use technology to solve the problem, surprise surprise. Calcium carbonate has the benefit of de acidifying the ocean.

> reducing fossil fuel consumption to a negative value isn't really a viable plan, as it turns out

That seems to be the case politically. Technically it could be done with the only variable being the time to do so.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#403

Post by holowoodman »

phtrivier wrote: post #389
anakaine wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont get this. In Australia we have had reverse cycle air conditioning for decades. These are heat pumps that both heat and cool. I have 15kW of installed heat pump tech at home and run my whole house off grid, despite mainta8ning a grid connection. The systems run as heaters in winter, and air conditioning in summer. They are very efficient, enough so that I dont worry about our solar and battery being able to kee…

To be honest I suspect the tech has been available here too, but the marketing is just confusing. But again, "cooling your house to survive summer" is, for real, a pretty recent concern to have in Europe, as opposed to "heating and insulating your house to survive winter". It's almost as if the climate is warming in accordance to what physicist have been saying for 30 years. "Qui aurait pu prévoir ?", as the other on…

It is also a construction thing. Air ducting is very rare in German homes. AC is also rare because frowned upon. And heating is usually provided by warm-water radiators or in-floor loops. But those radiators and in-floor loops are usually unsuited for cooling.

What's more, most heating techs only know about water heating and are unable to solder a refrigerant pipe. So it is hard to find someone to install a split AC or split heatpump, and your average heating tech won't even mention anything about cooling because he can't install it and your existing setup might have to be redone anyways.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#404

Post by holowoodman »

pocksuppet wrote: post #309
cratermoon wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agent Smith: I'd like to share a revelation during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species. I realized that you're not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment but you humans do not. You move to an area and you multiply and multiply until every natural resource is consumed. The only way you can survive is to s…

He is wrong, by the way. Most animals multiply until they exceed carrying capacity, then die off in massive numbers, then repeat. They may find a long-term equilibrium. The current boom in human population, and a subsequent die-off that has not yet happened, were predicted back in the 1970s.

It is also probably BS to assume a periodical die-off for humans in the near future. At the moment, humans are not showing any signs of a die-off, they are just not multiplying anymore. Humans do have something that animals do not, a culture. And this culture seems to have induced a downward variation in population.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#405

Post by holowoodman »

hamilyon2 wrote: post #401
dr_dshiv wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data seem to suggest an urgent need for solar radiation management because reducing fossil fuel consumption to a negative value isn't really a viable plan, as it turns out. Instead, we will have to use technology to solve the problem, surprise surprise. Calcium carbonate has the benefit of de acidifying the ocean.

Nobody tried planet-scale geo engineering before, as far as I understand the opinions on it's effectiveness vary.

We did try planet-scale geo engineering. It has worked so far, predictions were met. Heating through CO_2 and other heavy molecules works as predicted. Cooling through Sulfur compounds works even better than predicted, as evidenced by the sudden rise in temperatures after cessation of sulfur-rich fuels.

And in the end, all solutions we can attempt are technical and in some aspect untested. We just assume that the consequences of some of those solutions are small enough, but none have really been tested at scale.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#406

Post by holowoodman »

adrianN wrote: post #315
dylan604 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do you get the "centuries at least" bit? The hole in the ozone layer "repaired itself" much faster after humans made changes. There's no more acid rain in Los Angeles after humans made changes. These all happened within my lifetime. We also saw during covid lock downs how quickly things changed from the sudden slow down in human activity.

You can look up the carbon cycle on Wikipedia, it is fairly well understood where atmospheric carbon can go. Most processes that sequester carbon long term take geological time spans. So unless you think we engineer sequestration at a rate comparable to what we emit today, atmospheric carbon is here to stay for a really long time. Personally I think we won’t be able to scale sequestration technology sufficiently in t…

Carbon sequestration through plant-life seems to increase more than expected with rising atmospheric CO_2 levels. We are currently seeing increased global plant mass.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#407

Post by qsera »

RetroTechie wrote: post #387
qsera wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But those are unreliable as well... See, since it seems that you are convinced yourselves, can you tell me how accurately the past temperature can be assessed by using this method? I mean +/- how many degrees?

> But those are unreliable as well... Can you tell me how many research papers on this specific subject you have read, before coming to that conclusion? Hint: chances are you're correct (!). Size of the error bars, timeframe(s) talked about, how data was gathered, how results were processed etc, that is what such papers are about. Educate yourself! (Wikipedia is usually a good start)

None. It goes against my common sense. That is why I am asking what accuracy can this method give. I am asking that to people who are already seemingly convinced that the methods listed (fossil records, ice-cores) can be accurate..

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#408

Post by holowoodman »

otherme123 wrote: post #333
dylan604 wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that if humans would change, the Earth would change quickly. The way the first comment was worded made it sound like the Earth would need that time and not that humans will drag it out that long. That's a given. The Earth will snap back fairly quickly if the pesky humans would just get their shit together.

There are some positive feedbacks that once triggered could not be reverted for millenia. For example a potential stop of the AMOC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...

Melting glaciers and ice caps is another such thing. As soon as the polar albedo changes because there is no more snow and ice, temperatures will stay elevated for a far longer time than it took to melt those caps.

Re: A graph that should be front-page news

#409

Post by qsera »

inigyou wrote: post #352
qsera wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But those are unreliable as well... See, since it seems that you are convinced yourselves, can you tell me how accurately the past temperature can be assessed by using this method? I mean +/- how many degrees?

Can you tell me any answer you'd accept?

Accept? Why should any one "accept" anything without good reason?
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